Highest production VIN in the wild

[RubberToe]

I don't follow. Why couldn't the new and old lines operate simultaneously? Plenty of space and no shortage of raw materials (I hope).

Assume the new line produces 4x the number of packs with the same amount of labor. The new line machines arrive from Germany and are being assembled. At that point you are literally a short number of days away from drastically cutting production costs. From a financial standpoint, it makes sense to shut the old line down. The new line will more than make up for the lost production of the old line very quickly, at lower cost.

Tesla having sent out the massive invite set on 2-22, and following it up with another one a week later pretty much confirms a big jump in production is imminent.

The tracking spreadsheet shows a big drop in VIN assignments from 2-22 to 2-27. The VIN assignment is now back on track. If the new line is running, we should see a big jump in the number of VINs assigned, corresponding to the big jump in invites. Big jump in deliveries is the last domino do fall.

RT

My recent Model 3 invite and subsequent configuration has brought an almost Zen like clarity to my thought processes!

 

[suwaneedad]

Tesla having sent out the massive invite set on 2-22, and following it up with another one a week later pretty much confirms a big jump in production is imminent.

Or, delays created a motivation for Tesla to get a bunch of CA invites out in recent days so that at least local deliveries can be made by the end of Q1 to do some damage control on otherwise dismal Q1 delivery metrics, and those invited in the past few weeks (2/14 and onward) who are not near the factory will see their vehicles in April instead of by 3/31 (2/14 and 2/15 configurers should see delivery by 3/31, but if delays with robots have now threatened that timing, Tesla may be punting by inviting CA people right now and bank on handling local deliveries by 3/31).

 

[mjgillen]

Another thread completely off the rails...

 

[sreams]

Another thread completely off the rails...

Kinda hard to prevent people from talking about it. It would be nice if a thread could have sub-threads for discussion.

 

[mjgillen]

Kinda hard to prevent people from talking about it. It would be nice if a thread could have sub-threads for discussion.

That would be a cool feature.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

 

[CarbonFree]

Assume the new line produces 4x the number of packs with the same amount of labor. The new line machines arrive from Germany and are being assembled. At that point you are literally a short number of days away from drastically cutting production costs. From a financial standpoint, it makes sense to shut the old line down. The new line will more than make up for the lost production of the old line very quickly, at lower cost.

Surely any cost savings from prematurely stopping battery production on the old lines is dwarfed by the costs of idling production lines in Fremont, as well as the opportunity cost of the lost revenue from selling fewer cars in the quarter. Remember that this theory was originally offered to explain Tesla's production shortfall.

Further, idling one line before the other is producing in volume is risky: if the second line doesn't work, or is delayed, you don't have any way to manufacture batteries. Whereas, running both lines gives you a surplus of batteries, which are useful to have in case of future outages.

 

[CarbonFree]

Boy was I wrong, I thought robots would be more reliable than human employees.

Elon should give these robots an artificially short deadline for fixing their problems and announce it on Twitter. That will resolve things pronto!

 

[evp]

Caught my first model 3 in the wild! Serial number 46XX. Must have just been delivered.

 

[doubleohwhat]

I just got assigned a 94xx VIN today.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I encourage those who can to submit your full VIN to the Bloomberg tracker:
We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making
The full VIN will never be displayed, but it updates the model.

 

[S3XY]

Caught my first model 3 in the wild! Serial number 46XX. Must have just been delivered.
View attachment 284199

How did you get the VIN of someone driving down the road? Did you pretend to be one of those window washer guys?

 

[Todd Burch]

I just got assigned a 94xx VIN today.

Maybe now we’re cookin’ again?

 

[S3XY]

Maybe now we’re cookin’ again?

Maybe. But it hasn't been seen in the wild yet.

 

[ohmman]

Maybe. But it hasn't been seen in the wild yet.

It was seen on the wild, wild, Internet.

 

[1208]

So what is the time delay between highest VIN assigned and it being seen in the wild?

Is the time decreasing or is it constant?

 

[doubleohwhat]

So what is the time delay between highest VIN assigned and it being seen in the wild?

Dunno. Hopefully I'll get a delivery date tomorrow.

 

[X Fan]

I just got assigned a 94xx VIN today.

Congrats, what color?

 

[doubleohwhat]

What color?

Midnight silver - sport wheels

 

[evp]

How did you get the VIN of someone driving down the road? Did you pretend to be one of those window washer guys?

We were waiting at a stop light; I had time, so I took another picture of the temporary licence plate zoomed in. It's printed right above the expiration date. But your idea would work too.

 

[RayK]

Given what I found on the internet (yeah, I know that's not 100% foolproof), it appears that CO issues temporary plates good for a duration of 60 days. If that is correct, then that car was delivered Feb. 6; almost a month ago.