Anyone with a new delivery can simply check for HW3, the games run much faster and romance mode seems more 3D and the fire seems much hotter. Anyone that paid the $2K upgrade will really be glad they spent the extra $$$.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
HW3
- Thread starter Chancellor32
- Start date
Guess you won't laugh when you realize the features are out but you're 1 year behind in retrofit queue. But let's hope it doesn't come to that .
The worst thing would be that they are taking their sweet time with retrofits after software is in place.
If you don't get your car by the end of this month, it's 95% likely that your delivery will be pushed to after 15 May 2019 because all production between now and 10 May 2019 will be for EU and Asia because Tesla wants to deliver Q2 production in Q2 and these destinations have long transit times. Therefore in each quarter, production starts with the furthest away destinations and ends with California. Check out this chart that shows how most deliveries happen in the last month of the quarter:
This would be a good thing because if you get your car by the end of this month, it won't be HW3. However, if your delivery is pushed to after 15 May, it will be HW3. If you were from California, your car would be delivered by the end of this month. However, because you are from Texas, I think you might have just missed the window for this quarter.
By the way, the low number of AWD VINs acquired is related to the fact that Tesla had lots of unsold 2018 Model 3 LR AWD in stock. If you look at the list here, on 19 Feb 2019, the number of Model 3s in Tesla's inventory was as follows:
- 255 Long-Range
- 654 Performance
- 3,482 Mid-Range
- 6,453 Long-Range AWD
There is a danger zone between 1-7 April 2019 buyers should watch out for. If for some reason there was no car to deliver to you but then suddenly Tesla says they can deliver between 1-7 April 2019, it means somebody refused that car when they tried to deliver it in the last week of March and this car definitely won't have HW3. In addition, a few days after you take delivery Tesla will announce that all cars exiting the production line have HW3. This announcement will most likely happen just after the 7 days refund window is already closed.
This could leave some buyers feeling tricked because Tesla is making only HW3 cars since 23 Mar 2019 but those cars are for EU/Asia but they won't tell you that. Instead, they will keep quiet and deliver an HW2.5 car even between 1-7 April 2019. Then they will keep quiet until the refund window is closed and then they will announce HW3 with a blog post. Ideally, Tesla should find a better way to implement hardware changes without upsetting the most recent buyers.
I recommend reading the opening message here and my long message here to understand why switching production from US to EU/Asia plays a role.
Your statements are too broad and not entirely correct. There are currently HW3 inventory cars available for immediate delivery. We found one in stock yesterday and take delivery of it this week.
I suppose you may just be discussing the Model 3 but to say no HW3 cars will be delivered this quarter is not accurate.
I suppose you may just be discussing the Model 3 but to say no HW3 cars will be delivered this quarter is not accurate.
If you don't get your car by the end of this month, it's 95% likely that your delivery will be pushed to after 15 May 2019 because all production between now and 10 May 2019 will be for EU and Asia because Tesla wants to deliver Q2 production in Q2 and these destinations have long transit times. Therefore in each quarter, production starts with the furthest away destinations and ends with California. Check out this chart that shows how most deliveries happen in the last month of the quarter:
This would be a good thing because if you get your car by the end of this month, it won't be HW3. However, if your delivery is pushed to after 15 May, it will be HW3. If you were from California, your car would be delivered by the end of this month. However, because you are from Texas, I think you might have just missed the window for this quarter.
By the way, the low number of AWD VINs acquired is related to the fact that Tesla had lots of unsold 2018 Model 3 LR AWD in stock. If you look at the list here, on 19 Feb 2019, the number of Model 3s in Tesla's inventory was as follows:
All of these are 2018 models. The 10th character in the VIN is J for 2018. Tesla will clear the inventory by the end of this month. That's why Elon was upset with stores because he told them to clear the inventory but they couldn't. Also, that's why they came up with the $3,000 price drop for Model 3s on 28 Feb 2019 and then the 3% increase on 20 March 2019. Everything is designed to clear the inventory by the end of this month so they can move on to HW3.
- 255 Long-Range
- 654 Performance
- 3,482 Mid-Range
- 6,453 Long-Range AWD
There is a danger zone between 1-7 April 2019 buyers should watch out for. If for some reason there was no car to deliver to you but then suddenly Tesla says they can deliver between 1-7 April 2019, it means somebody refused that car when they tried to deliver it in the last week of March and this car definitely won't have HW3. In addition, a few days after you take delivery Tesla will announce that all cars exiting the production line have HW3. This announcement will most likely happen just after the 7 days refund window is already closed.
This could leave some buyers feeling tricked because Tesla is making only HW3 cars since 23 Mar 2019 but those cars are for EU/Asia but they won't tell you that. Instead, they will keep quiet and deliver an HW2.5 car even between 1-7 April 2019. Then they will keep quiet until the refund window is closed and then they will announce HW3 with a blog post. Ideally, Tesla should find a better way to implement hardware changes without upsetting the most recent buyers.
I recommend reading the opening message here and my long message here to understand why switching production from US to EU/Asia plays a role.
Thank you for the substantial response!
I’m not super concerned about HW3 personally since I’m paying for FSD up front and would expect a retrofit eventually (I’m in no hurry). If this turns out to be true I’ll definitely be disappointed since the website even now is still quoting “within 2 weeks” for an exact copy of what I ordered. As much as I want the car, sadly, the real issue for me if it’s pushed out that far is that my financing will expire and I’ll need to reapply and risk a worse interest rate, which I’m especially fearful of because my bank was offering a promotion that will have expired by then.
At least I’ll still get my car at the pre-price hike cost so there’s that.
I don't claim 100% accuracy. I could be wrong about some details but generally speaking, I'm happy with my predictions.
If I understand correctly, yesterday HW3 code was found in some of the New Inventory listings on Tesla.com. I hope somebody makes that information useful to others so people can differentiate between HW3 and HW2.5 inventory cars. Assuming this is correct, here is what I think about it: S/X sales must have been slow for a while and it looks like Tesla didn't want to slow down production to match low sales. Instead, they added some HW3 S/X to the inventory for US sales. These are meant for covering the demand between 1 April 2019 and 10 May 2019 when production is expected to be entirely for international orders.
I like making predictions. In this forum, there is a predictions thread here where I wrote a lot. In fact, I wrote there about HW3 too. My method is based on research and I don't mind explaining the details for each prediction. For example, in November 2018, I was able to predict that all Model 3s would support Supercharger V3 and none of the Model S/X would. See my 4 tweets here. This is useful information if somebody is trying to decide between a used Model S or new Model 3.
That prediction was based on EPA data. In that instance, I was wrong about Supercharger V3 supporting up to 184 kW. Tesla pushed the limits of the hardware and it actually supports 250 kW. However, I was right when I said no Model S/X would support Supercharger V3 but all Model 3s would. I received lots of troll reactions because of that prediction because Elon had said Model S was their flagship car in technology.
I also listen to all Tesla conference calls and Elon's interviews and I do lots of research. That's how I was able to predict HW3 timing with 3 days accuracy two weeks in advance. If people want to call this estimate too broad, that's their choice. Yesterday there was a guy on Reddit who didn't like my estimate because I was off by 3 days. However, many people were expecting HW3 months later. Some even thought it won't happen in 2019.
This screenshot below is from my message here where people can read the reason why I came up with 26 March 2019. I also recommend the message here that has a longer explanation.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Nope. Mentioned on investor call HW3 isn't any more expensive than HW2.5...so no sense in continuing to use 2 computers once HW3 is ready other than burning off any existing stock.
That doesn't mean much.... the 990 rear drive unit was in the catalog for months before it showed up in any actual production cars for example.... the appearance of HW3 on actual inventory cars is a lot better indication of an actual change in built cars.
ALL AP2 and AP2.5 cars should be retrofitted with HW3 if that is what it takes to have full self driving. All these cars were sold with the promise that they were hardware ready for full self driving. If that is not the case, Tesla is obliged to upgrade all cars in order to make then hardware ready for FSD.
My judgement is that they are legally on the hook for that one.
Hasn’t Elon specifically been saying HW3 is only necessary for FSD functionality? And since FSD is and always has been an optional upcharge, I don’t understand why they’d be on the hook in any sense to retrofit cars that don’t have FSD purchased.
We've been over this, the cars are all fitted for FSD, its just that the changover installation became a little more complex than previously envisioned in that a hardware upgrade is now necessary. All cars with FSD will be upgraded; all FSD purchases will result in an upgrade, I assume at the time of purchase. Therefore there is do doubt that should the FSD software become available the cars will be able to run it.
Elon has stated that the AP2.0 cars are upgradable, although @verygreen has his doubts, and its widely believed that at least for S/X the upgrade is trivial. Its really up to Tesla to elaborate how they will roll out the update; surely it would be to current FSD owners first, maybe in a USA centric rollout; maybe in the order of purchase, who knows.
No matter what it will be a logistical nightmare - there could be something like 100k cars out there with FSD upgrades due. At an hour per install, that is a LOT of labor and a long queue.
Elon has stated that the AP2.0 cars are upgradable, although @verygreen has his doubts, and its widely believed that at least for S/X the upgrade is trivial. Its really up to Tesla to elaborate how they will roll out the update; surely it would be to current FSD owners first, maybe in a USA centric rollout; maybe in the order of purchase, who knows.
No matter what it will be a logistical nightmare - there could be something like 100k cars out there with FSD upgrades due. At an hour per install, that is a LOT of labor and a long queue.
Thanks for the explanation as always. Last year your delivery estimator got my delivery date within 1 week of the actual day, so I always have had a good deal of respect in your estimations.
However I’d be surprised if an additional 60,000 people purchased FSD due to the recent price reductions. It does appear that a decent amount of people here (myself included) at TMC and the other forums did purchase FSD during the brief period it was available for another $2000 for those that already had EAP. But I think those more in the know that regularly visit TMC, another forum site or keep up with the Tesla news on the many blogs have a much higher probability of purchasing FSD when it was available for the much cheaper price. A majority of Tesla owners may not have even known about the temporary price reduction for FSD.
Anyway, say your 150,000 FSD HW3 upgrade estimate is accurate. That could take well over a year for Tesla to do the AP computer swap on all of those vehicles. They may have to hire more technicians just to handle all of the HW3 upgrades.
Because the cars were sold that way. The cars were Hardware ready for FSD. Now it seems they are not. So they need to be made hardware ready.
There are probably meany features in the car that were sold to you but you don't use. Like Isofix or tow bar That doesn't mean they can just leave it out because you don't use it.
It is like saying: "We sold you a car with tow bar, but since you don't have a trailer we are not giving that one because you don't use it anyway"
No, you sold a car with tow bar so expect a car with tow bar.
You can't just say, we give you the tow bar as soon as you got a trailer or give you the Isofix as soon as you have kids and need to install a child seat..
You sold a car which has all the Hardware for FSD so expect a car with the Hardware for FSD
Last edited:
Right. I follow you overall, but the examples you used aren’t optional paid upgrades. It’s true though, if you do pay for FSD even well after you’ve taken delivery, you’re going to get the required hardware, once available, at no additional cost. This doesn’t explain why they’d ever retrofit someone who didn’t purchase FSD.
That’s completely unnecessary and wasteful. So Tesla should upgrade every single vehicle they’ve sold that is compatible with the HW3 computer? Let’s say only 1/3 of Tesla owners have opted to purchase the FSD option. So by you’re logic Tesla should waste valuable time and money to upgrade the other 2/3 of HW3 capable vehicles that do not have the FSD option purchased? If someone wants FSD then they have to purchase the option which includes the HW3 upgrade. Tesla shouldn’t be wasting resources on installing an upgraded autopilot computer for owners that don’t even have the FSD option purchased.
What I'm curious about is what will happen to 100,000+ HW2/HW2.5 computers?
Hopefully Tesla donates them to colleges and high schools around the world.
Hopefully Tesla donates them to colleges and high schools around the world.
With that hardware it would cost more $$'s in energy than the bitcoins generated would be worth.
Similar threads
