HW4 sensor suite and hi-res camera updates?

[spacecoin]

Which data? People's reports of FSD Beta? Tesla's reported safety metrics? Reports to regulators for automated driving systems?

I'm thinking of the orange line in this graph in particular (second page bottom graph on the community tracker):

Average miles to disengagement. Interventions are happening so often, they're not even bothering to count them.

We don't really know what HW4 will change, but are you thinking the change won't be significant enough to get to driverless either?

No I don't think it will be enough. It may perhaps reach L3 in some limited ODD, but it will not deliver on any robotaxi promises. I don't think it's possible to get to robotaxis with the budget hardware that goes into a volume car this decade.

 

[ElectricEel]

Apparently there will be no free upgrade Elon Musk kills hope of Tesla retrofitting new Autopilot/Self-Driving hardware

Which seems very unfair given I paid 10k and other folks here paid even more. Honestly that makes me want to pursue some sort of recourse.

oh man I can’t wait to see this pan out. I hope everyone organizes into small claims court, then again that may be what he wants cuz the muskateers are in regret. Grabbing my popcorn .

 

[Mardak]

That doesn’t sound like the approach Tesla is taking. Other AV companies change their hardware way more often.

That's why I was saying maybe "fail fast" doesn't work as well for hardware that gets deployed on the existing fleet. Where they have been able to do more rapid iterations is with the software such as architectural changes to go from a single camera to multiple camera to a top-down understanding to incorporating time for removing radar then to more unified understandings, etc. Each of those were attempts of thinking they could get it done without an even more holistic approach, but clearly with so many rewrites, they found out the fast approach was insufficient, but maybe they'll get to one that is safe enough to then put a greater focus on other aspects like comfort.

 

[spacecoin]

That's why I was saying maybe "fail fast" doesn't work as well for hardware that gets deployed on the existing fleet.

What doesn't work is selling a feature based on computer vision and promising autonomy despite the fact that the scientist at the world's leading institutions haven't solved the underlying issues. And then doubling down on "Level 5 autonomy" to get rich on the valuation based comp scheme. It's such obvious fraud.

And now queue TeslaBot.

 

[WyoDude]

But the fact of the matter is that they ran out of compute 18 months or so again, and are fighting the hardware limitations ever since, juggling NN:s in and out of memory, and using the extra SoC that was supposed to be for redundancy as an active node.

Where is this info coming from?

 

[Twiglett]

one thing is certain - the fact that HW4 is a thing pretty much sets in stone that HW3 obviously can't achieve what Tesla wanted and they now need the better cameras and computing that's in HW4.
Now you decide if you think HW4 is really the answer and wait for HW4 to buy your next Tesla
or
Just get your next Tesla anyway and don't bother with FSD because you now know it will never work as promised but might end as an OK L2 system you can get a subscription for.

 

[WyoDude]

one thing is certain - the fact that HW4 is a thing pretty much sets in stone that HW3 obviously can't achieve what Tesla wanted and they now need the better cameras and computing that's in HW4.
Now you decide if you think HW4 is really the answer and wait for HW4 to buy your next Tesla
or
Just get your next Tesla anyway and don't bother with FSD because you now know it will never work as promised but might end as an OK L2 system you can get a subscription for.

Do you think there is any possibility they would have stopped at HW3 and made no further improvements?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Where is this info coming from?

green is a pretty reliable source.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1409530170407522304

Do you think there is any possibility they would have stopped at HW3 and made no further improvements?

HW4 was announced at the same event as HW3. I think people were just hoping that there would be an upgrade path (though many people correctly predicted that there wouldn't). Now the only question is how much more development they do on HW3 or if they move all significant development to HW4 (I think they'll move on to HW4.)

 

[spacecoin]

Just get your next Tesla anyway and don't bother with FSD because you now know it will never work as promised but might end as an OK L2 system you can get a subscription for.

Still waiting in Europe here for most of the things I was promised, including City Streets. Can you believe they keep promising we will get that to this day, when it's not likely to be legal here earlier than 2026, if ever.

Tesla used to be leader in ADAS a few years back, but now the system works poorly compared to other systems, and worse since the radar removal. Rain sensing is crap, Auto high beam just started working "ok" after 3.5 years of ownership... The car is fine. Fun to drive, even the Model X, and holds up OK after the 8 initial service appointments.

No way I am rewarding fraud. I'm definitely NOT getting another Tesla until they make this right, which will likely be never. Superchargers are open to other brands in my country, so the USP and the magic is gone.

 

[johnmodely]

If you guys think Tesla is going to replace 100s of thousands of FSD cars for free I got something to sell you….

HW 2-3 upgrades were easy because there were a couple thousand cars that had it. They wouldn’t even logistically be able to replace 500k cars even if they wanted too, that would clog up all their service centers for years…

They will just wrap up FSD in its current state and call it done for HW3

 

[jeremymc7]

It seems like all(?) Tesla leases now no longer allow buyouts/end-of-lease-purchases

When I bought my last two early 2020 cars they didn’t allow end of lease purchases on 3 or Y so this doesn’t seem to be a new thing; except X and S if they no longer allow buyout either.

 

[jeewee3000]

If you guys think Tesla is going to replace 100s of thousands of FSD cars for free I got something to sell you….

HW 2-3 upgrades were easy because there were a couple thousand cars that had it. They wouldn’t even logistically be able to replace 500k cars even if they wanted too, that would clog up all their service centers for years…

They will just wrap up FSD in its current state and call it done for HW3

Agreed.

My main question regarding HW4 is if upgrading from HW3 will even be possible (if the owner would want to pay for it).
This is only possible if for examples the cameras and FSD computer swap out and the rest (cables) can be kept.

If HW4 has different camera housing shapes or locations then an upgrade will not even be achievable. (For example if HW4 adds a camera on the front bumper/grill).

I've already given up on speculating on this part and will just await Cybertruck to see what HW4 is all about. If we were to get an AI update in the fall (Elon hinted that they wanted to do a yearly AI update) that would bring us up to speed as well.

 

[spacecoin]

Agreed.

My main question regarding HW4 is if upgrading from HW3 will even be possible (if the owner would want to pay for it).

I think it's out of the question. There has been a lot of changes under the hood and Tesla is in the business of selling new cars.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Tesla's new self-driving (HW4) computer leaks: Here's a teardown

Tesla’s new self-driving computer, Hardware 4.0 (HW4), has leaked as the automaker appears to be already building some cars with...

electrek.co

Guess what? Tesla hacker greentheonly got his hands on an HW4 unit from a Model X. He confirms that due to a change in form factor, no retrofit appears possible. But he also says that HW4 doesn't seem like a revolutionary upgrade from HW3. You can follow his HW4 teardown directly on Twitter.

 

[ev4robert]

Interesting coverage by Munro

 

[jeremymc7]

Also been said that HW4 while it might have upgraded cameras won’t have additional cameras or new camera placement; at least initially. Possibly HW4.5.

We’ll know more actually facts and less speculation next month most likely.