Hydrogen vs. Battery

[nwdiver]

"I love my tesla but" crowd on this forum, who have their cars stuck in service centers while they drive crappy old gas cars or Teslas.

Um....

1. Those issues are exceedingly rare... what percentage of Mirai drivers have been effected by the H2 problem? ~40%?
2. Those issues are related to Tesla... not the underlying technology. H2 simply makes no sense in cars until....

We're a long.... LONG way away....

1. >90% of H2 (ALL H2) is sourced from H2O NOT CH4
2. Connected to #1; Electrolysis is cheap enough to use Surplus Wind or Solar (Operate at a CF <20%)
3. Connected to #2; >50% of H2 is sourced from SURPLUS wind or solar
4. Home electrolysis is a thing OR it's a PHEV

Until those conditions are met FCVs really don't make ANY sense..... even then I'm not sure I would say they're better... they just won't be completely ridiculous.

 

[ohmman]

They're all getting free rental. What is your proof that some are not?

You're on the public and the private Mirai groups, right? Both of those have complaints about rejects on the rentals. Also find the ones who chose not to take the rental because they want a ZEV. I don't believe I should paste graphics from the private/owners only side here, but surely you can see them.

 

[ggr]

I have to admit I do not know about either Alexander or Ronny, can you guys enlighten me, please ?
As far as I know AC electricity was pioneered by Nikola Tesla:
Nikola Tesla - Wikipedia

Ahhh, the young people of today... It was a joke, son, a joke, get it? (Foghorn Leghorn.)

It was a semi-quote from Monty Python. The other guy clearly meant Nikola but somehow wrote Alexander.

 

[Curious George]

You're on the public and the private Mirai groups, right? Both of those have complaints about rejects on the rentals. Also find the ones who chose not to take the rental because they want a ZEV. I don't believe I should paste graphics from the private/owners only side here, but surely you can see them.

OK, I looked into it and admit my error in this.
Toyota was giving rentals on a case by case basis. Well, now they are refunding drivers their payments. Also throwing in some more discounts as I hear.

Statement from Toyota in June:
Bay Area experiences hydrogen shortage after explosion

Toyota is aware that certain fuel cell vehicle owners in Northern California may experience refueling challenges because of limited hydrogen supply at several local fueling stations. We are working with our Mirai customers to help identify alternative fueling options, If needed. We are also engaging with Mirai owners directly on a case-by-case basis to address their concerns. We sincerely regret any current inconvenience for our customers. We remain committed to working with stakeholders to expand California's hydrogen refueling infrastructure and to continuing our investment in the future of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle technology. Customers are encouraged to continue to use Toyota.com/Mirai for the most up to date information related to the Mirai, Toyota's hydrogen technology and station availability.

On a case by case basis, Toyota will provide rental vehicles and the rental days for this special circumstance do not impact customer's 21-day Mirai swap days."

 

[Curious George]

2021 Toyota Mirai Fuel-Cell Sedan Goes RWD for Second Generation

 

[mblakele]

2021 Toyota Mirai Fuel-Cell Sedan Goes RWD for Second Generation
View attachment 464781

I was wondering if you'd be around tonight.

Toyota Introduces The New 2021 Mirai, But Without A Plan For A Fueling Network | CleanTechnica

Its output is nicely paired to a 113 kW / 115 hp electric motor that won’t wow current battery electric drivers, but comes with the same high torque rating — 335 N-m / 247 ft-lb of torque. Unfortunately, the implementation results in a very economical 0–60 mph time of 9.0 seconds. Toyota wasn’t offering up any drives of the new Mirai at this point, but the first-generation Mirai drove a lot like the Prius, but without the vibrations from the petrol engine starting and stopping. The low center of mass of the heavier Mirai keeps the vehicle pinned to the ground and contributes to the slower 0–60 time.

The car will, curiously, come to market without a clear plan to increase the fueling station network that is required to refuel the hydrogen-powered vehicle. The move, or lack thereof, relegates fuel cell vehicles to the same nebulous purgatory they have lived in since the Mirai was first introduced in 2015. In that time, the public hydrogen fueling network in the US has been isolated to the hardcore zero emission vehicle (ZEV) standard state of California, which to date is only home to 38 of the stations.

Most of these stations are first-generation hydrogen fueling stations with daily capacities in the 150 kilograms per day range. Toyota confirmed that while the ramp up of new stations over the next few years might not look impressive, each of them includes newer fueling tech that can handle upwards of 500 kilograms of hydrogen production per day. If fully utilized, that is enough to fill 100 of the 2021 Mirai per day. That’s not going to change the world, but it’s a large step in the right direction for Toyota and the other FCEV manufacturers.​

Well, give it another decade and they might make HFCEV that people want to buy.

• 0-60: yes
• plug-in: no
• Li-ion: no, still NiMH — when even my toothbrush is now Li-ion
• fuel outside California: no
• fuel inside California: maybe, if you're lucky
• ugly: matter of taste, but myself I'm not fond of the baleen whale look

The big questions are about production. How many of these will Toyota give away make? How much money will they lose per vehicle?

 

[Curious George]

I was wondering if you'd be around tonight.

Toyota Introduces The New 2021 Mirai, But Without A Plan For A Fueling Network | CleanTechnica

Its output is nicely paired to a 113 kW / 115 hp electric motor that won’t wow current battery electric drivers, but comes with the same high torque rating — 335 N-m / 247 ft-lb of torque. Unfortunately, the implementation results in a very economical 0–60 mph time of 9.0 seconds. Toyota wasn’t offering up any drives of the new Mirai at this point, but the first-generation Mirai drove a lot like the Prius, but without the vibrations from the petrol engine starting and stopping. The low center of mass of the heavier Mirai keeps the vehicle pinned to the ground and contributes to the slower 0–60 time.

The car will, curiously, come to market without a clear plan to increase the fueling station network that is required to refuel the hydrogen-powered vehicle. The move, or lack thereof, relegates fuel cell vehicles to the same nebulous purgatory they have lived in since the Mirai was first introduced in 2015. In that time, the public hydrogen fueling network in the US has been isolated to the hardcore zero emission vehicle (ZEV) standard state of California, which to date is only home to 38 of the stations.

Most of these stations are first-generation hydrogen fueling stations with daily capacities in the 150 kilograms per day range. Toyota confirmed that while the ramp up of new stations over the next few years might not look impressive, each of them includes newer fueling tech that can handle upwards of 500 kilograms of hydrogen production per day. If fully utilized, that is enough to fill 100 of the 2021 Mirai per day. That’s not going to change the world, but it’s a large step in the right direction for Toyota and the other FCEV manufacturers.​

Well, give it another decade and they might make HFCEV that people want to buy.

• 0-60: yes
• plug-in: no
• Li-ion: no, still NiMH — when even my toothbrush is now Li-ion
• fuel outside California: no
• fuel inside California: maybe, if you're lucky
• ugly: matter of taste, but myself I'm not fond of the baleen whale look

The big questions are about production. How many of these will Toyota give away make? How much money will they lose per vehicle?

Seriously, are you reading only Cleantechnica and Electrek, the only two unbiased sources on hydrogen cars? /s

1. Toyota doesn't need to wow the handful of people dashing to 60 mph on highway on ramps in order to soothe their sagging middle aged ego. it will find plenty of takers among those stuck at electric charging stalls and superchargers for hours, trying to get the last 10% of the charge. And many more who care for a comfy luxurious ride or a fast 3-5 minute fill up.

2. Toyota doesn't need to operate hydrogen stations and should avoid that as much as it can. There is a plan to have 10000 worldwide stations by 2030. Appears the Cleantechnica author was too busy posting in dead Mirai forums and didn't get a chance to do some research.

Toyota plans to launch the next generation model in late 2020, initially in Japan, North America and Europe.. It also plans to raise annual production capacity tenfold to 30,000 units, Toyota Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada told the Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting in Tokyo last month.
..
The ministerial meeting on the technology, attended by ministers and delegates from more than 30 nations, regions and organizations, pledged to introduce 10 million FCVs, trucks, buses and other hydrogen-powered systems globally, as well as 10,000 hydrogen refueling stations, over the next 10 years.

Japan has a domestic goal of introducing 800,000 FCVs and 900 hydrogen refueling stations by 2030, under a strategic road map revised in March. Under that plan, it will also seek to reduce the price difference between FCVs and hybrid vehicles to ¥700,000 from the current ¥3 million.

 

[mblakele]

Seriously, are you reading only Cleantechnica and Electrek, the only two unbiased sources on hydrogen cars? /s

You brought up Electrek. Toyota paid for CleanTechnica to be there.

1. Toyota doesn't need to wow the handful of people dashing to 60 mph on highway on ramps in order to soothe their sagging middle aged ego. it will find plenty of takers among those stuck at electric charging stalls and superchargers for hours, trying to get the last 10% of the charge. And many more who care for a comfy luxurious ride or a fast 3-5 minute fill up.

Tell that to the BEV drivers out there: well over 1M and growing. Tell it to the almost 100k who bought Teslas, just this past quarter. How many bought HFCEV again?

2. Toyota doesn't need to operate hydrogen stations and should avoid that as much as it can. There is a plan to have 10000 worldwide stations by 2030. Appears the Cleantechnica author was too busy posting in dead Mirai forums and didn't get a chance to do some research.

So again, give it another decade and they might make HFCEV that people want to buy. By which time the BEV market share will be....?

But for HFCEV the big questions are about production. How many of these will Toyota give away make? How much money will they lose per vehicle?

 

[Curious George]

@mblakele Obviously Toyota didn't want to discriminate. Or was confused by the name of the site.

Where did the CleanTechnica author get the powertrain spec? Everyone says it wasn't disclosed.

"we again don't know power figures for this model" - At 420 mark.

 

[mblakele]

@mblakele Obviously Toyota didn't want to discriminate. Or was confused by the name of the site.

Where did the CleanTechnica author get the powertrain spec? Everyone says it wasn't disclosed.

Ask CT.

Anyway for HFCEV the big questions are about production. How many of these will Toyota give away make? How much money will they lose per vehicle?

 

[ohmman]

it will find plenty of takers among those stuck at electric charging stalls and superchargers for hours, trying to get the last 10% of the charge.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Seriously, are you reading only Cleantechnica and Electrek, the only two unbiased sources on hydrogen cars? /s

1. Toyota doesn't need to wow the handful of people dashing to 60 mph on highway on ramps in order to soothe their sagging middle aged ego. it will find plenty of takers among those stuck at electric charging stalls and superchargers for hours, trying to get the last 10% of the charge. And many more who care for a comfy luxurious ride or a fast 3-5 minute fill up.

Acceleration has real world implications. Maybe those "middle aged" owners want to safely pass other vehicles on the Hwy...

Also, when you have to use idealized figures for one vehicle and misrepresentation for another, you're not assembling the best argument.

2. Toyota doesn't need to operate hydrogen stations and should avoid that as much as it can. There is a plan to have 10000 worldwide stations by 2030. Appears the Cleantechnica author was too busy posting in dead Mirai forums and didn't get a chance to do some research.

There was once a plan to have a large natural gas refueling network, and incentives to build NG vehicles...but the public didn't buy into it...and it was largely dependent on public funding. You may notice some similarities here.

Forward looking statements are great...but reality tends to be different.

 

[ggr]

On the positive side, it is less ugly.

9s 0-60 puts it solidly among a bunch of '80s cars. 0-60 Times and Quarter Mile Times - Updated 2019 - 0-60 Specs

 

[North75]

I think it looks ok.

and... that's about it.

 

[JRP3]

Daimler gives up on fool cells Daimler konzentriert sich bei E-Autos auf Batterie-Technik - ecomento.de
Google translate Google Translate

 

[ohmman]

Daimler gives up on fool cells Daimler konzentriert sich bei E-Autos auf Batterie-Technik - ecomento.de
Google translate Google Translate

The fuel cell for hydrogen-powered Stromer plays no central role for Källenius in the drives of the future. This technology could be of particular interest to commercial vehicles, but in the next ten years we will concentrate on the battery in passenger cars, according to the former Daimler board member responsible for corporate research and Mercedes development chief.

Translation issues notwithstanding, that’s an honest response.

 

[mblakele]

Translation issues notwithstanding, that’s an honest response.

Expanding on that a little, the market for passenger vehicles has said “no” to HFCEV. But commercial vehicles could still make sense in some niches, because they often operate their own fueling networks anyway. I could see someone like Walmart or a gas company investing in HFCEVs to replace diesel trucks, with hydrogen coming from a mix of commercial purchase and an on-site electrolyzer fed by curtailed renewables. It all comes down to TCO and ROI.

Parenthetically this is also how I expect Tesla Megachargers to work: on-site installations at logistics centers, paired with solar and/or wind. Later on some truck stops might get public MCs, but I suspect the early ones will be private.

 

[Curious George]

Daimler gives up on fool cells Daimler konzentriert sich bei E-Autos auf Batterie-Technik - ecomento.de
Google translate Google Translate

Only time will tell who the fool is. Looking at the momentum, I have my guess.
Lots of interesting ways to store and fuel cars with hydrogen. Here is one; little old but method seems solid. 50 kg is 5 kg of hydrogen.
but he was wrong about people using 850 bar pumps.

 

[nwdiver]

Only time will tell who the fool is. Looking at the momentum, I have my guess.
Lots of interesting ways to store and fuel cars with hydrogen. Here is one; little old but method seems solid. 50 kg is 5 kg of hydrogen.
but he was wrong about people using 850 bar pumps.

How long before base conditions are met? My rough guess is ~20 years.

We're a long.... LONG way away....

1. >90% of H2 (ALL H2) is sourced from H2O NOT CH4
2. Connected to #1; Electrolysis is cheap enough to use Surplus Wind or Solar (Operate at a CF <20%)
3. Connected to #2; >50% of H2 is sourced from SURPLUS wind or solar
4. Home electrolysis is a thing OR it's a PHEV

Until those conditions are met FCVs really don't make ANY sense..... even then I'm not sure I would say they're better... they just won't be completely ridiculous.

 

[Curious George]

Here is a really interesting way to transfer hydrogen in huge quantities, as in oil tankers across the ocean. This video goes very deep into this safe, barely flammable hydrogen oil. It's actually in use today commercially.

There goes another argument against hydrogen.