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I am now planning to get the full self-driving option and here is why

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by diplomat33, Feb 9, 2018.

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  1. dss33

    dss33 Member

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    Agreed re: LIDAR. And I think he stated the case extremely well on the earnings call this week.

    “In my view, it’s a crutch that will drive companies to a local maximum that they will find very hard to get out of,” Musk said. He added, “Perhaps I am wrong, and I will look like a fool. But I am quite certain that I am not.”
     
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  2. BigD0g

    BigD0g Active Member

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    Let me just remind you about Elon time, as it appears no one has mentioned it, but this is not the first time he's said three months maybe, six months on the outside. And, we are still not seeing his "exponential" leap in features from his AI. So, I'd take anything EM says with a hugest piece of salt I could. I'd sit on the sidelines and wait to see some actual EAP features before I bought. If you really want FSD, the only way to be sure to get is to wait, until they've solved the problem and then buy.

    Keep in mind, FSD might require redundant steering motors amongst other things, the only thing I've ever heard EM state they'd be upgrading is the APE, so if for whatever reason regulators come out and say you must have redundant steering or rear radars or some other feature, other then new CPU processing, all of us who pre-bought, are up the creek without a paddle I believe.

    The problem is nobody knows what FSD requires, and without that knowledge it's really hard to make an informed decision. And, the only thing Tesla has committed to is the APE upgrade, anything else they will hide behind the webpage verbiage...
     
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  3. dss33

    dss33 Member

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    That's all true, though I guess it's also about what people are truly expecting with FSD. At least for me, true level 3 or 4 is going to be more than enough until basically all cars are autonomous, at which point level 5 will probably be required (at least on certain all-autonomous roads). I still want to be paying some attention to my surroundings even with FSD, even if it's just mostly enjoying the scenery on a long drive.

    So I think a lot of it is about expectations. If FSD means looking at AP 1 and making that more advanced and even more reliable and expanding on the features set (e.g. - traffic light/intersection/stop sign recognition, ability to turn and merge, etc.) and making those all available on all marked roads, with a little less nagging, sign me up. You're correct though that the people expecting to be able to sleep/watch movies/play games while the car is driving, in the next two or three years, are likely to be sorely disappointed. And that's not I think even just because of Tesla and their approach, but more so because of how monumental a change this is and how many external factors there are that Tesla needs to account for.
     
  4. Bruinfan

    Bruinfan Member

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    the way i look at it, you are betting $3k to win $1k.

    and that FSD will even happen, and that it will be usable, and that you will use it a lot.

    so, basically laying 1 to 3 odds that it will happen in a great way.

    not saying it won't... but i'm good waiting, and paying the premium... i generally won't lay 1 to 3 on the the most surest things.
     
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  5. efusco

    efusco Moderator - Model S & X forums

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    Honestly, if I were to get it, this would be the only reason. All due respect to the OP here, none of the other reasons really hold water. If your car is totaled, even if you expected to use FSD, your money is gone. Drop the $4000 into some investments, you'll make back at least a part of the $1000 most likely, You'll have a chance to wait and see if the FSD is all it is cracked up to be.
     
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  6. dss33

    dss33 Member

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    Also good arguments here!
     
  7. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Member

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    That cannot possibly be true. How could FSD be a decade plus away when Waymo and Cruise already have level 4 autonomous cars on public roads now? And Tesla has a strong Neural Net that is making great strides and is planning a FSD demo in 3-6 months. I doubt that would be true if FSD were still a decade away. No! I think the evidence points to FSD becoming real in 1-2 years.
     
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  8. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    I honestly thought they were headed the wrong way without LIDAR but his comment really came across as brilliant IMHO. He isn’t thinking about the next step, he’s thinking about the step after that which is full neural net image recognition and processing.

    In actuality it won’t even be a full 1K savings for many buyers because they will finance the 3K and in some states may have to pay a yearly tax on the MSRP of the vehicle thereby eating into the “savings”.
     
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  9. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Member

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    Nope. We are spending $3000 to get FSD and save $1000 or more. The price will most likely go up and if that happens, we will have saved a lot more than $1k.

    FSD will happen. FSD is inevitable. And yes, I will use it a lot. :)

    When FSD becomes available and the price jumps to $5000, don't come here and whine that Musk is trying to rip you off. You were warned. ;)
     
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  10. Bruinfan

    Bruinfan Member

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    well, there are plenty of people who 'spent' $3k 2 yrs ago and still have yet to realize their 'savings'.


    i don't doubt it will happen. will it happen in a timely manner? will it happen in a version that makes you want to use it? or will it be buggy as all hell for the first year or 3 yrs? who knows?

    i don't think it jumps immediately. i think they honor their $4k price for a little while, and if it is as advertised, we will all kind of know, better buy it before they increase the price. (AP price stayed stable for at least a year.. until 2.0 came out)

    i know you believe it will happen, but none of us know for sure when and how. i can see myself seeing the finished product and saying.. eh.. i'm good for now. so if i put down the $3k for something i don't even know i will like, i view that as a form of gambling. and the upshot is a $1k prize (minus financed interest)
     
  11. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Member

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    Hopefully. But Tesla could change the price with little to no notification. So I find it risky to wait. Tesla is known for making sudden pricing changes. Heck, I would not be surprised at all if Tesla discontinued the EAP option entirely on custom orders once FSD becomes available.
     
  12. Cheburashka

    Cheburashka Member

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    It's unclear if/how FSD will work, even if Musk is theoretically right about LIDAR, because there are no redundancies in the sensors or controls.

    Also, "3-6 months" could be years in Elon time.

    The original plan was a demo by 2018, but that obviously hasn't happened. In fact, there is little evidence that points to any Teslas being tested with FSD capabilities. The California DMV issues a report on miles/incidents of companies doing FSD testing and Tesla hasn't been logging any miles.

    Theoretical neural networks are great but it's unrealistic to expect FSD even in a year's time when they haven't done a single test on public roads.
     
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  13. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Member

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    That has been discussed a lot. Tesla did test FSD in California, just not in a way that required reporting under California law. But the lack of reporting is not an indication of lack of testing.
     
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  14. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    These threads are like the hotdog/not hotdog app. Only its Engineer/ Not Engineer.
     
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  15. Cheburashka

    Cheburashka Member

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    There is proof of this or no?

    I work beside Tesla office. Haven't seen any of the MFG plated cars being driven around with no hands on steering.

    It's possible that they have tested something at some point, but highly unlikely that it actually works, otherwise it would be pointless to sit around and not test anything at all.
     
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  16. 03DSG

    03DSG Active Member

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    Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration
     
  17. Cheburashka

    Cheburashka Member

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    lol, an old video from 2016?

    I think it's been mostly dubunked that the car is pre-programmed to drive along the route and most of the video is faked.

    Since it happened so long ago and we haven't seen any new developments since, I'm going to assume the functionality is extremely limited and nothing close to actual FSD.

    You can either believe "3 to 6 months" which is Elon speak for "maybe, could be never" or you can look at the facts. He promised some level of self-driving/summoning with AP1, didn't happen. AP2 only now sorta at parity with AP1. With development going that slow, FSD doesn't seem possible or likely any time soon.
     
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  18. WileyTheMan

    WileyTheMan Peanut Gallery Member

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    I love the idea of FSD, but until autonomous vehicle legislation is solid in my state and they approve Tesla's FSD method, I'll hold on to my $3k ($4k?).
     
  19. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Member

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    In Tesla's report to the California DMV, they stated that they tested FSD on public roads outside California, on non-public roads, in simulations and in shadow-mode.
     
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  20. dampfred

    dampfred Member

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    Well, I guess I’m more optimistic than you regarding the timeline. I expect some functionality, if not true FSD, sometime 2019 with continuous improvements after that. But that’s an opinion based on my extrapolated guesstimates.

    Legal climate over here is that they’re evaluating it and paying close attention to US policy when doing it. It’s not formally illegal yet, but the person “driving” the vehicle is responsible until new regulations pass, so if FSD arrives tomorrow, you could probably use it, but not blame Tesla if anything happened. Despite the current ambiguity on legal status, we recently passed a test framework that I think resembles the one in California to explicitly allow Volvo to do the same kind of tests that Tesla and others do on public roads.

    Regarding climate and wear, I don’t really know what you’re referring to. Cars last just about as long here as anywhere else. Climate where I’m living is not very different from, say, Connecticut. Cars can easily last 20+ years if taken care of. Track record on EV’s obviously not available yet, but aluminium body is helpful.

    When I sell the car in 3-5 years, I expect FSD to make a meaningful difference on resale value. If they fail to ship FSD before that and people believe they never will, my bet was wrong. If they do ship it before that, I’ve enjoyed the features and will make some of the money back.

    In the unlikely case that they ship FSD and it turns out that AP2.0 cars need hw upgrade that is not offered to anyone who doesn’t already have the FSD package on the due list (as it might cost Tesla a lot to do it), I will be very glad that I didn’t opt out when I had the chance, as I think it will make a huge difference on resale value.

    And that’s the case I wanted to hedge.
     
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