RKCRLR
Active Member
They need to make more hydroelectric pumped-storage facilities. They were doing this when I was a kid. Not real efficient but if we get to a point where we have excess solar who cares.
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I doubt if Household PV has shifted demand that much. It is PG&E's' renewables that have create a gap in Demand versus Capacity.
PG&E killed off quite a bit of natural gas plants
So much of that article is talking about curtailment. Until there are policies in place to curtail fossil fuels instead of renewables, or at least in equal amounts to renewables, we will always be doing less than we could be to reduce GHG emissions. They apparently have no problem forcing renewable suppliers to cut their profitability by curtailing, but won't do the same to fossil based energy suppliers. When I look at the proportion of fossil to renewable on the CA-ISO grid today, this is an obvious problem. I have to assume that the root cause is long term contracts instituted after the deregulation energy crisis.Sure, but household PV is producing at the same time as the grid-scale renewables, so being subject to the same economics.
California has too much solar power. That might be good for ratepayers
Completely agreed.So much of that article is talking about curtailment. Until there are policies in place to curtail fossil fuels instead of renewables, or at least in equal amounts to renewables, we will always be doing less than we could be to reduce GHG emissions. They apparently have no problem forcing renewable suppliers to cut their profitability by curtailing, but won't do the same to fossil based energy suppliers. When I look at the proportion of fossil to renewable on the CA-ISO grid today, this is an obvious problem. I have to assume that the root cause is long term contracts instituted after the deregulation energy crisis.
1. According to CAISO California ISO - Prices you can watch production prices fluctuate through the day. They do rise as demand rises, but only from say 2.5 cents per Kwh to 3.8 cents. If you are an energy trader or a utility, that's alot.
The spot price varies way more than 2.5 to 3.8. It can go all the way to 15 cents/kWh
from PG&E Bankruptcy Could Deal Blow to Its Solar-Power Suppliers’ Finances
Analysts at Credit Suisse estimate that PG&E could save $2.2 billion a year by renegotiating renewable power contracts down to current market prices. Those savings could offset the utility’s annual cost of paying off wildfire claims from the last two years, the analysts wrote in a research note.
“It makes a lot of economic sense for PG&E to try and reject the older, higher-priced contracts,” said Clifford J. Kim, a senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.
If Bankruptcy allows PG&E to cancel any old high priced contracts, they had better apply equally to renewable and fossil contracts. All the stories I've read only talk about canceling renewable contracts.1. According to CAISO California ISO - Prices you can watch production prices fluctuate through the day. They do rise as demand rises, but only from say 2.5 cents per Kwh to 3.8 cents. If you are an energy trader or a utility, that's alot.
The spot price varies way more than 2.5 to 3.8. It can go all the way to 15 cents/kWh
from PG&E Bankruptcy Could Deal Blow to Its Solar-Power Suppliers’ Finances
Analysts at Credit Suisse estimate that PG&E could save $2.2 billion a year by renegotiating renewable power contracts down to current market prices. Those savings could offset the utility’s annual cost of paying off wildfire claims from the last two years, the analysts wrote in a research note.
“It makes a lot of economic sense for PG&E to try and reject the older, higher-priced contracts,” said Clifford J. Kim, a senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.
So I see the economics as follows:
1. According to CAISO California ISO - Prices you can watch production prices fluctuate through the day. They do rise as demand rises, but only from say 2.5 cents per Kwh to 3.8 cents. If you are an energy trader or a utility, that's alot.
2. However, its not "a lot" when you consider that California retail pricing is around "plus 17 cents per kwh" = i.e. 20 cents per kwh or more. The "more" as far as I can see, is mostly based on public policy to encourage the public to not use electricity, especially during early evening.
3. I don't know who has access to the wholesale price, but I believe even large buyers (assuming, for example, every Home Depot in SoCal can cut a large scale deal) can get anywhere close to 3 cents a kwh. Probably more like 10 to 15 cents. Maybe someone knows.
4. This is the problem facing us. Before one gets to private energy, any new renewables plant has to meet or beat the 2.5 to 3.8 cents price. Someone pointed out that in California we are stuck with some older, expensive contracts, maybe so.
5. Now we come in. Its pretty easy with solar and 1 to 1 net metering to beat 20 cents per kwh. At least it is now. Maybe ten years ago before prices dropped and efficiency improved those people were really simply doing the right thing.
6. But let's use my 16.32 kwh system as an example. Its predicted to produce 25,000 kwh per year. Over twenty years that's 500,000 kwh. If I end up paying 25 cents per kwh it will cost me $125,000. I think that's a good set of assumptions. I haven't gummed it up with assuming the current rates will rise too much. Although they could.
7. Pricing just the panels over the same 20 years, with the Tesla Mosaic loan, would be 20k for the panels after tax break and then 16k of interest so 36K.
8. 36k beats 125k, but remember that 125k was retail pricing. Wholesale of the same 500,000 kwh might only cost the utility, say, $20,000. at 4 cents a kwh.
9. Here's the rub, private energy can compete with retail prices, but not yet with wholesale prices.
10. And, the numbers don't look as good if you don't really get 1 kwh at night for each 1kwh you send in the daytime. But, once you get over the "we are going to encourage people to go green" bit, why should any utility essentially subsidize residential energy by paying retail price for it? I can think of a couple of reasons, starting with the fact that the energy we produce is free, but that's an argument for a pretty aggresive net metering plan (from the utilities point of view). I think the reason I agree with those who predict "the party is over" is that a utility may be able to do 1 to 1 net metering as long as the number of private solar producers is low, but what if 50% all houses have solar? No utility could pay 20 cents per kwh for something that otherwise costs 3 cents per kwy. Unless of course, they charge all the non-solar people 40 cents a kwh.
11. But if you add powerwalls the good news is its still cheaper than paying the utility, as long as the powerwalls get you through early evening. I make it for a 16.32 system with three powerwalls over twenty years will cost $72K (including all loan costs) whereas the energy would cost at least 125K. Its a good deal financially, not a super great one.
12. Best thing for the world is for the utilities to save the money they would have to spend to generate the energy we give them and use that money for some form of energy storage to benefit everyone (including private solar producers). But I can't avoid the fact that the utility isn't actually saving any money by buying electricity from me at 20 cents that they could otherwise buy at 3 cents.
So whether I have battery backup or use a lot/little during the peak usage, it won't affect my bill
So what does PG&E do when more people get solar and battery storage and are off the grid? They are forcing our hand to do so.
Question for the folks who seem to be in the know here: If I am net generator of power at the annual true up period, I only get reimbursed at the wholesale rate correct? So whether I have battery backup or use a lot/little during the peak usage, it won't affect my bill because I am generating more than I use (and getting paid back at wholesale rates). Do I have that right?
Given that the value of exports will almost certainly get reduced, we expect that to be bullish for energy storage. Energy storage attachment rates with solar are already steadily rising in California. By the time NEM-3 starts getting implemented, likely in 2022, we think storage attachment rates will likely escalate further.