Is $10K too much?

[sluri]

I say it’s worth. Especially after a few drinks where you are ok, but legally over the limit. A DUI would cost you more money and time then 10K.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I see. I do agree that $10,000 is too cheap to replace a salaried worker (driver) but if the owner is not in that kind of business, it might not make financial sense.

Yeah the additional assumption I was making was that the owner was a person with the means and inclination to spend $50k+ on a car.
The idea of the car as a robotaxi doesn't make much sense. Tesla is certainly going to take a big cut of your revenue, there will be far too much competition (how many Model 3 have been sold?), and the Model 3 would be horrible taxi (it's a sports sedan!).

 

[ElectricIAC]

Yeah the additional assumption I was making was that the owner was a person with the means and inclination to spend $50k+ on a car.
The idea of the car as a robotaxi doesn't make much sense. Tesla is certainly going to take a big cut of your revenue, there will be far too much competition (how many Model 3 have been sold?), and the Model 3 would be horrible taxi (it's a sports sedan!).

I wouldn’t go as far as to call it a sports sedan without an adaptive suspension.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I say it’s worth. Especially after a few drinks where you are ok, but legally over the limit. A DUI would cost you more money and time then 10K.

But when will it increase safety in this case? Drunk drivers are actually very good drivers - something like 16x worse than the normal driver! That’s it. They are extremely good at the driving task (just not relative to a sober human)! How Drunk are U.S. Drivers? Measuring the Extent, Risks and Costs of Drunk Driving

[To be absolutely clear: do not drink and drive. This does not need to be said, really. But to be clear...]

So you have to consider when it would increase safety here (meaning, when will it be good enough???). And there are ALSO paradoxical considerations - reliance on FSD nearly certainly will make drunk drivers WORSE drivers (they’ll be asleep). They will not be able to take over the driving task, so that raises the bar for FSD being able to provide a safety improvement in this use case, relative to a sober driver.

 

[Dan203]

And if we’re really looking at it to increase safety then isn’t continually increasing the cost actually diminishing that? The higher it goes the less people will buy it. And if less people have the capability then the safety benefits, to society, will be minimal.

Maybe Tesla will bundle it with their insurance. Buy our insurance and we'll throw in FSD for free. If it's truly safer then that would make good business sense for them.

 

[john5520]

So you have to consider when it would increase safety here (meaning, when will it be good enough???). And there are ALSO paradoxical considerations - reliance on FSD nearly certainly will make drunk drivers WORSE drivers (they’ll be asleep). They will not be able to take over the driving task, so that raises the bar for FSD being able to provide a safety improvement in this use case, relative to a sober driver.

With active monitoring the car should stop if the driver falls asleep. And with the visualization improvements we're seeing now, it should also have the capability some day soon, to pull over to the side of the road safely. This sure beats having a drunk driver cross the median into oncoming driving, or off the side into someone or a ditch.

 

[shipapotamus]

When people have old hardware and they upgrade to FSD, then they get HW3. If you buy FSD now with HW3, and down the road HW4 comes out will they upgrade you to HW4?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

With active monitoring the car should stop if the driver falls asleep.

This was just one example of risk compensation by a drunk driver. Plus: There may not be any risk compensation and the performance of the drunk driver may degrade.

 

[Truckee]

What is the average added resale value of FSD? If it was purchased for 8k could you get most of that money back on resale when the price is increased to 10k?

 

[Dan203]

When people have old hardware and they upgrade to FSD, then they get HW3. If you buy FSD now with HW3, and down the road HW4 comes out will they upgrade you to HW4?

Probably not. They think that they’ll be able to accomplish FSD, at least to it's promised level, using HW3. If HW4 is actually substantially better then you'll likely have to pay for that upgrade.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Probably not. They think that they’ll be able to accomplish FSD, at least to it's promised level, using HW3. If HW4 is actually substantially better then you'll likely have to pay for that upgrade.

Yeah the answer is complicated and there are a lot of scenarios for what “should” happen...depending on trajectory. But the financial impact suggests the answer will be “no,” regardless of the scenario.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yeah the answer is complicated and there are a lot of scenarios for what “should” happen...depending on trajectory. But the financial impact suggests the answer will be “no,” regardless of the scenario.

I could see a scenario where they get FSD working on HW7 and it makes Tesla so much money that they can afford to make everyone who bought HW3-6 whole. I doubt they'll upgrade people from HW3 to HW4 before they get FSD working on HW4 though.

 

[Dan203]

What is the average added resale value of FSD? If it was purchased for 8k could you get most of that money back on resale when the price is increased to 10k?

I looked at this a few months ago and on Tesla's own used car website there were comparable vehicles with about $4K difference for the ones with FSD. Now it appears all of their used cars have FSD. So they must be flipping it on for every car they sell to either get a few extra bucks or to avoid putting a hard value on used FSD.

But I certainly wouldn’t expect to get all your money back at $8K or $10K unless you sell to a private buyer who knows how much that feature is worth.

 

[ElectricIAC]

What is the average added resale value of FSD? If it was purchased for 8k could you get most of that money back on resale when the price is increased to 10k?

Between $0 and $8,000.

 

[Dan203]

I could see a scenario where they get FSD working on HW7 and it makes Tesla so much money that they can afford to make everyone who bought HW3-6 whole. I doubt they'll upgrade people from HW3 to HW4 before they get FSD working on HW4 though.

Unless they definitively decide that HW3 is absolutely incapable of FSD they're not going to upgrade anyone. That's basically what they decided with 2.5 and why they upgraded everyone for free.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That's basically what they decided with 2.5 and why they upgraded everyone for free.

The people who were upgraded paid $2k-$3k more, in general. Maybe I am misinterpreting what you are saying?

 

[shipapotamus]

What is the average added resale value of FSD? If it was purchased for 8k could you get most of that money back on resale when the price is increased to 10k?

Trying to factor this into my purchase decision as well. It isn't exactly just $8,000 sunk cost (keeping it simple, not counting the value of money over time).

These are all the outcomes that I see for value:

• Tesla tags it to accounts, even if partial value (i.e. they let you apply the $8,000 credit towards next car FSD purchase)
• Tesla starts factoring in FSD on car when they do trade-ins to keep up with market.
• Sell aftermarket in ~5 years. FSD might cost $15k+, so even if you assume 50% of that then you would be paying off the initial principle you paid for FSD. Honestly, even if you got $4,000 back in value on a trade-in for FSD then you are really only spending $4,000 for ~5 years which is likely way better than subscribing.

The only way I can see getting totally screwed is if HW3 isn't enough to warrant even $4,000+ in value down the road, or Tesla drops price/starts offering FSD sales or very cheap subscriptions.

 

[cucubits]

I say it’s worth. Especially after a few drinks where you are ok, but legally over the limit. A DUI would cost you more money and time then 10K.

I would love so much to see you explaining (drunk) to the trooper how your car is driving you by itself and that you are ok.

 

[Tam]

When people have old hardware and they upgrade to FSD, then they get HW3. If you buy FSD now with HW3, and down the road HW4 comes out will they upgrade you to HW4?

Short answer: Don't count on it.

The only promise was to upgrade to HW3. There's no promise to upgrade higher than that.

Long answer yes if you can order Tesla to do it:

Some would argue that we buy the FSD function, not a particular hardware like 2.0, 2.5 or even 3.0. We just need to get what we paid for: Some hardware that's capable of driverless even if it will take all the way to HW 99 but the upgrade must be free because we already pre-paid.

However, in reality, I believe Tesla will decide whether to promise any further free upgrades beyond HW3.0 according to its profit's motive.

 

[Tam]

...The idea of the car as a robotaxi doesn't make much sense...

Uber has been in the business of ride-hailing services for years and has not made any profit.

Tesla thinks if we don't pay for the human driver then we should be profitable.

That's what Waymo is doing now in Chandler, AZ: Eliminating human drivers while providing ride-hailing services. Waymo has never been profitable so far. It's doubtful it will be profitable any time soon with this new driverless system either.