Is $10K too much?

[DaveG_NJ]

...Still on the fence...

Ha ha, I'm glad I'm not the only one. That was some good (and not surprising) info you got from the insurance company. I figured they'll treat it like you upgraded the stereo or wheels and take off for age, wear and tear (significantly). Good luck with the argument "But the price keeps going up so it's worth more."

This is a fantasy:

1) In 2020, Car is worth $50K, FSD worth $10K
2) You drive 120,000 miles
3) Five years later, the car is worth $10K, FSD worth $50K (due to price increases)
4) Car totaled and you break even. Not gonna happen.

I've accepted that, for me, there is no rational, sane reason to pay $8K for FSD. I've been working from home for the past two years, so I have no commute. I think the robotaxi idea is silly. (I don't let my wife drink water in my car and yet, I'm going to let it be used by drunken bar-hoppers on a Friday night. Who's going to show them how to open the damn doors? LOL.)

If I made a Pro/Con list, it would look like this:

Cons:
- FSD functionality only incrementally better than AP at significant cost
- Significant opportunity cost
- It's tied to the car, not the owner. If the car is totaled, it's largely unrecoverable
- I don't commute at all any more
- Subscription plan forthcoming. I'll be able to try it or only periodically use it at much lower cost
- No terms and conditions attached. Tesla can delay, change or cancel the program anytime at their discretion.
- It's basically a non-returnable, restricted-use, software license (even Adobe, Oracle, SAP and MS moved to a subscription model).

Pros:
- It's really cool

God help me, I think I'm going to hit the "Add" button on my account.

 

[Gasaraki]

This question keeps coming up and I don't really understand it. You paid $50k+ for a car and you're wondering whether $10k is worth it for a car that drives itself? Think of all the stuff you could get done while the car takes you places! You could send the car to pick people up. You could send it to the store to get your groceries.
The only question is whether Tesla can achieve it with the existing hardware, their promise is "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers."

The car I have now will NEVER be Level 5 autonomous. 10K for Level 3 is too expensive.

 

[Daniel in SD]

The car I have now will NEVER be Level 5 autonomous. 10K for Level 3 is too expensive.

I would pay $10k for Level 3 Interstate Highway driving (at the speed limit, not traffic jam assist). I don't even think the car will be able to do that. The premise of the question was that the car would be robotaxi capable soon and if that is true then $10k is a ridiculous bargain (for the average Tesla owner, not someone living at the poverty line! Have to really be precise on this forum. )

 

[drtimhill]

So you have to consider when it would increase safety here (meaning, when will it be good enough???). And there are ALSO paradoxical considerations - reliance on FSD nearly certainly will make drunk drivers WORSE drivers (they’ll be asleep). They will not be able to take over the driving task, so that raises the bar for FSD being able to provide a safety improvement in this use case, relative to a sober driver.

I'm reminded of the old tale of the "Davy Safety Lamp" from the 19th century. Coal miners back then had to use open flames for lighting .. not ideal with lots of explosive gas around. So a safety lamp was invented that didn't cause explosions and thus save miners lives. The result? The cynical mine owners just reasoned that the miners could now work the much more dangerous coal seams safely, and so actually MORE miners died, not less.

 

[drs1901]

Ha ha, I'm glad I'm not the only one. That was some good (and not surprising) info you got from the insurance company. I figured they'll treat it like you upgraded the stereo or wheels and take off for age, wear and tear (significantly). Good luck with the argument "But the price keeps going up so it's worth more."

This is a fantasy:

1) In 2020, Car is worth $50K, FSD worth $10K
2) You drive 120,000 miles
3) Five years later, the car is worth $10K, FSD worth $50K (due to price increases)
4) Car totaled and you break even. Not gonna happen.

I've accepted that, for me, there is no rational, sane reason to pay $8K for FSD. I've been working from home for the past two years, so I have no commute. I think the robotaxi idea is silly. (I don't let my wife drink water in my car and yet, I'm going to let it be used by drunken bar-hoppers on a Friday night. Who's going to show them how to open the damn doors? LOL.)

If I made a Pro/Con list, it would look like this:

Cons:
- FSD functionality only incrementally better than AP at significant cost
- Significant opportunity cost
- It's tied to the car, not the owner. If the car is totaled, it's largely unrecoverable
- I don't commute at all any more
- Subscription plan forthcoming. I'll be able to try it or only periodically use it at much lower cost
- No terms and conditions attached. Tesla can delay, change or cancel the program anytime at their discretion.
- It's basically a non-returnable, restricted-use, software license (even Adobe, Oracle, SAP and MS moved to a subscription model).

Pros:
- It's really cool

God help me, I think I'm going to hit the "Add" button on my account.

Ha Ha, DaveG you summed it up so well
I've run the logic to the bitter end and there is NO sound financial reason to lay down $8K for FSD at this point

But it is the coolest option on the coolest car I've ever had

I'm one click away

 

[seniorcitizen]

Ha Ha, DaveG you summed it up so well
I've run the logic to the bitter end and there is NO sound financial reason to lay down $8K for FSD at this point

But it is the coolest option on the coolest car I've ever had

I'm one click away

I made similar pro and cons list. There was no practical reasons for me to get FSD.
I did purchase FSD a couple of days ago.

• I was tired or analysis paralysis
• I don't buy new cars often and I plan to hold on to cars for a long time.
• It is the coolest option on the coolest car I've ever had
  
• I have never had a car where they make improvements. FSD is one area where they will keep on investing/improving.

If the price was not going up later this week I would have waited for subscription service.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

I made similar pro and cons list. There was no practical reasons for me to get FSD.
I did purchase FSD a couple of days ago.

• I was tired or analysis paralysis
• I don't buy new cars often and I plan to hold on to cars for a long time.
• It is the coolest option on the coolest car I've ever had
  
• I have never had a car where they make improvements. FSD is one area where they will keep on investing/improving.

If the price was not going up later this week I would have waited for subscription service.

So, we're all insane then! OK @seniorcitizen, pass the jug of Koolaid. I think @drs1901 and I are about to take a swig.

 

[Uncle Paul]

For many it is not a financially justified decision, but just getting something you want and can easily afford.

For many, it is similar to buying a Tesla in the first place. They could easily find a cheaper car to get around in, but decide to purchase their Tesla because they feel it is the right thing to do and have the $.

Just read the two posts above...good examples

 

[cypho]

I can see how raising the price for the option on new cars may bring in additional profits for Tesla if they have determined that the people who buy the option are not particularly price sensitive.

But I really don't understand Tesla's logic behind raising the price for existing owners. By that I mean, I don't understand why Tesla thinks it will bring in more money. How many people who didn't want to add $6,000 to their loan when they purchased the car, are going to consider to paying $10,000 cash today? I can't imagine very many people are going to jump at that offer no matter how much progress Tesla has made to the software.

It really feels like they don't want to sell upgrades post-sale. Or that they think the odds of selling it after-the-fact it are so low that they don't care if they reduce it further by raising the price.

 

[qdeathstar]

I would not have paid 10K for fsd as it is. I almost passed at 7K.

For 10k I really need to have them be able to pick me up and park for me at the very least.

 

[qdeathstar]

My feeling is they don’t want sell fsd as an upfront purchase and something they want to sell as a service — month to month...

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Just read the two posts above...good examples

Hey, watch what you say - I resemble that remark!

I'm not wealthy, but I do have some discretionary income and I've made some purchases that many might consider extravagant. Whether it was a $12K shotgun or a $8K guitar. But they're physical assets and have actually appreciated in value. If I ever got into a pinch I could turn them into cash fairly easily, but enjoy them until then, or pass them on to my children or grandchildren. But FSD isn't that. It's a little something now and maybe something special down the road. Its cost is manifestly increasing, but its value is speculative. And it has ZERO residual value to the purchaser. You can't sell it. Can't return it. Can't insure it (apparently). It's ephemeral - a vapor - a leap of faith. It's a mound of cash on the pyre to Elon. Pray brethren he fulfills.

 

[dinonugget]

God help me, I think I'm going to hit the "Add" button on my account.

Just accept that fact that you cannot be helped ... I just clicked on the FSD BUY button yesterday, knowing that I might very well be buying a big toy that may have zero payoff. However, the journey should be fun!

 

[drtimhill]

My feeling is they don’t want sell fsd as an upfront purchase and something they want to sell as a service — month to month...

What they want is to maximize income from FSD .. by whatever mix of sales models they think will work. Only Tesla know what percent of owners opt for FSD, and so only they can feed this data into a price model that will let them set both the purchase and (potential) monthly rental price. Plus there is also the "halo" effect .. how many people buy a Tesla with the thought that they might get FSD later? This is also a hidden revenue source from FSD. There is also the "sale price" (aka Macy's) model, where you set a retail price (not really expecting many to buy at that price) only so you can reduce the price later and encourage people to panic buy before the price goes back up.

In this particular case they need to be a bit wary of angering well-heeled Tesla owners who have already paid for FSD by introducing a rental model with too low a price .. hell hath no fury like an early adopter who feels cheated!

 

[DaveG_NJ]

In this particular case they need to be a bit wary of angering well-heeled Tesla owners who have already paid for FSD by introducing a rental model with too low a price .. hell hath no fury like an early adopter who feels cheated!

I've worked with some very smart people over the years who specialized in pricing models. I'm am certain Tesla has a team dedicated to just this scenario. At some point FSD price increases will invert the demand curve. We're close, I suspect. $10K may be that pivot point (or as Elon as indicated in his "close to $2K increase", maybe it will be $9,999 USD.

The subscription model needs to be attractive, even enticing, but it's a balancing act. If they come out with a $9.99/month plan, an army of FSD Teslas will be set to NoA to Elon's neighborhood and shut down. Anything under $99/mon is an insult to the early adopters. The wrench in all this is competition. Any competitor marketing anything close to FSD at a reasonable price will pull the rug out from under it all.

 

[Cheburashka]

Super Cruise is affordable for lower models which need 2 costs:

1) Driver Assist & Tech: $3,650
2) Super Cruise: $2,500
-------------------------------------------
Total $6,150


View attachment 602793

You can't get it in the lower trim. You need at least the premium Luxury trim which is a 6k upgrade. And then the other costs are on top of that.

If Tesla played the same type of trim games as big auto, we'd have to pay for a premium package, and then autopilot on top of that.

 

[qdeathstar]

What they want is to maximize income from FSD .. by whatever mix of sales models they think will work. Only Tesla know what percent of owners opt for FSD, and so only they can feed this data into a price model that will let them set both the purchase and (potential) monthly rental price. Plus there is also the "halo" effect .. how many people buy a Tesla with the thought that they might get FSD later? This is also a hidden revenue source from FSD. There is also the "sale price" (aka Macy's) model, where you set a retail price (not really expecting many to buy at that price) only so you can reduce the price later and encourage people to panic buy before the price goes back up.

In this particular case they need to be a bit wary of angering well-heeled Tesla owners who have already paid for FSD by introducing a rental model with too low a price .. hell hath no fury like an early adopter who feels cheated!

a monthly fee for fsd reduces there liability to provide it.

 

[flyingowl]

 

[DaveG_NJ]

My feeling is they don’t want sell fsd as an upfront purchase and something they want to sell as a service — month to month...

I agree. Tesla sits on mountains of data and they generally make data-driven decisions. I expect they will raise the fixed-price fee to the point where sales (the take rate) drops off and at that point, they'll roll out the subscription model. I think $10K is the limit, maybe it's $12K? For me (and I'm still deciding) it's $8K or I'll wait for subscriptions.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Well, god help me, I caved. The analysis paralysis was killing me...