Is $9k worth 310 miles v 220?

[electracity]

Until they get real competition with similar class of cars, similar features, and ranges, but for cheaper prices, then they should not be dropping prices just because they are getting higher margins. They should be shoving those profits back into their business to expand.

Musk mentioning a future "model 2" suggests that Tesla strategy may be to never drop price on the model 3. As competition develops Tesla may add features to keep the price in todays range. They could even eliminate the base model 3.

They might even use the model 3 skateboard for a model 2. This strategy would allow them to aggressively build model 3/Y capacity and launch the model 2 when supply exceeds demand.

 

[drawfour]

Musk mentioning a future "model 2" suggests that Tesla strategy may be to never drop price on the model 3. As competition develops Tesla may add features to keep the price in todays range. They could even eliminate the base model 3.

They might even use the model 3 skateboard for a model 2. This strategy would allow them to aggressively build model 3/Y capacity and launch the model 2 when supply exceeds demand.

Yeah, a subcompact car or something - probably something similar in size to the Nissan Leaf, but likely much much prettier and more performant. Wonder if my wife would want that. She has a Prius right now.

 

[electracity]

Yeah, a subcompact car or something - probably something similar in size to the Nissan Leaf, but likely much much prettier and more performant. Wonder if my wife would want that. She has a Prius right now.

I'm thinking more about price point as EVs reach cost parity with ICE. Tesla probably wants to build the Camry/Accord of EVs, which have a similar wheelbase to the model 3. This is a considerably bigger market segment than the 3 series "lower end luxury". They know the typical consumer wants a car in the price range where they are currently comfortable.

When batteries reach $100/kWh pack cost a nice Camry-like EV can sell for ~$25K.

 

[combo]

Musk mentioning a future "model 2" suggests that Tesla strategy may be to never drop price on the model 3.

2S3XY

 

[jgs]

Yeah, a subcompact car or something - probably something similar in size to the Nissan Leaf, but likely much much prettier and more performant. Wonder if my wife would want that. She has a Prius right now.

Mine absolutely would. She has a GTI now.

 

[cwerdna]

Yeah, a subcompact car or something - probably something similar in size to the Nissan Leaf, but likely much much prettier and more performant. Wonder if my wife would want that. She has a Prius right now.

Not sure why you lump Nissan Leaf and subcompact cars together as being similar in size.

Per Compare Side-by-Side Specs tab, current '18 Leaf and previous gen are EPA classified as midsize cars. Ditto for gen 3 Prius (model years 2010 to 2015) and gen 4 (model years 2016 to current) along w/gen 2 Prius (model years 04 to 09).

 

[cwerdna]

I am with you on this. I really don't need LR for what I use it for. SR is ~50 kilowatts and LR is ~75 kilowatts battery. A different of ~ 25 kilowatts. The new power wall granted it's using slightly different battery chemistry but cost about 7K each for ~ 12 or 14 kilowatts. That means ideally the extra 25 kilowatts should cost ~ 14K. Meaning the cost of 2 power wal at 7K each.

Just some thoughts on what we are really getting for the 75 kw battery

9 kilowatts missing from the hyper milers doing 600 miles on a 32 hrs drive going at 25 mph. According to Tesla the BMS took the 9 kwh.
Factoring in battery degrade about 7% the first 10 yrs.
Charging recommendation at 80%.
Your 75 kw battery usable is more like 50 kilowatts

Elon keeps saying the battery cost are below $200/KW with the Gigafactory and plans to about $100/KW soon. That should put the 25KW upgrade at $2500-$5000 in battery cost. Everything else is the same. The rest is profit.

Battery capacity is measured in kWh (kilowatt hours or kilowatt-hours), not "KW", not "kw" and not kilowatts.

kW and kWh are very different metrics. It's the same as confusing gallons with horsepower. Think of kW = horsepower, kWh = gallons.

If one charges at 1 kW (or 1000 watts) for 6 hours, 6 kWh came out of the wall. If it's at 6 kW for 1 hour, it's also 6 kWh. If it's 1 watt for 6000 hours, it's also 6 kWh.

Watts or kilowatts are measure of power. Watt-hours are a measure of energy.

One pays for electricity at home in cents per kWh. There are a few utilities w/residential plans where they not only bill per kWh but also have demand charges, but that's rare and complicates calculations. (Demand charges aren't unusual on many commercial plans.)

(BTW, 1 hp = ~0.746 kW. And, many .gov sites say 1 gallon of gasoline=33.7 kWh.)

 

[S100D]

Is it worth $9k to get 90 miles more? Is there other differences? Does not seem so and seems pricey. My fear is this price may drop.

Are most people getting SR or LR? It's like I want the car now bad so LR but $9k is a lot.

If you you plan to drive in areas where the SCs are 220 miles apart, the answer is yes it is worth the extra money. I have a S90D and recently drove from Austin TX to Avon Colorado. When I left Amarillo TX with 290 miles available, I had to slow down to less than 70 mph because Trinidad CO was 236 miles away. I was driving into a 15 mph head wind and climbed 2,405 feet in elevation. Head winds and elevation changes can have a huge effect on your ability to reach the next SC.

 

[TaoJones]

Is it worth $9k to get 90 miles more? Is there other differences? Does not seem so and seems pricey. My fear is this price may drop.

Are most people getting SR or LR? It's like I want the car now bad so LR but $9k is a lot.

Yes, it is worth $9K to get 90 miles more. Put another way, it is not worth $9K less to be saddled with 90 miles less.

Further, I routinely endure a 40%-50% range penalty during a week of urban short trips. So half of 300 is 150 and that's doable for a week of not going anywhere. But half of 200 is 100 and that's not doable. Your mileage, pun intended, may vary.

Yes, I still get all of 284 miles (down from 294 miles after a yearish and 32Kish miles) when on the open road.

I look forward to the day when there's a Tesla pickup truck with a 600-mile range. Since living between 20% and 80% means 60% of 600 or 360 miles, half of which (if cold/hilly/rainy/ and /or fast) being 180 miles. Rarely if not traveling will I drive more than 180 miles in a day, and it would be nice to be able to do that within the optimal range, pun again intended, of the battery without having to stop to charge whilst out and about. Or aboot, if one is north of the border.

Also please note that when the base model emerges, by default the "premium" package will be not part of the mix. Then again, there's AP to consider for another $5K (the E in EAP remaining notable silent to date). So... 35K becomes 40K plus some color other than black plus fed doc/dest fee and voila, up to 43K just like that. There are (much) cheaper options for a 200-mile car. It's a bummer that the extra $9K pushes the tally to the low 50Ks, but what else is there at present? Nothing. Nothing that you can reliably charge once outside of town.

I suspect that the base model is going to eat Nissan's and GM's lunch for urban and 2nd cars unless and until a charging network actually exists that can rival the current Supercharger network. Pretty maps and promises aside.

 

[adaptabl]

I'm thinking more about price point as EVs reach cost parity with ICE. Tesla probably wants to build the Camry/Accord of EVs, which have a similar wheelbase to the model 3. This is a considerably bigger market segment than the 3 series "lower end luxury". They know the typical consumer wants a car in the price range where they are currently comfortable.

When batteries reach $100/kWh pack cost a nice Camry-like EV can sell for ~$25K.

The current Accord and Camry seem higher scale than the model3 is now.

 

[electracity]

The current Accord and Camry seem higher scale than the model3 is now.

So for you and many other people there is still a substantial EV premium cost which you may or may not be willing to pay. Most importantly, even though sedans are not currently popular, these two brands combined sell 50,000+ per month. A considerably bigger market than low end luxury.

Back on topic, the entire pack will cost $9000 after 2020. So there is a risk that much or all of the premium will not be recouped when the car is sold. On the other hand a M3 LR will still have well over a 200 mile range when sold used. How well will a used standard model 3 sell with a range of 170 miles?

Really hard to predict this stuff. I live in a cold weather area, and I'm only interested in larger battery EVs.

 

[electracity]

2S3XY

I like how we can work together on TMC to build Tesla's future branding strategy. 2S3XY is exactly the kind of silly naming choice that Musk will approve. Second choice: "Not a Model 3".

 

[Quickstart88]

I been seeing a lot of model 3 in my area. A white one pull up next to me today. Dam it's beautiful. Can't wait. sport wheel really pack a punch.

 

[Reid]

Mine absolutely would. She has a GTI now.

I would love a hatch. This is the first sedan I've owned out of, I don't know, maybe 8 cars? I just really really dislike the sedan form factor. This was the only car I was willing to put up with that for.

Further, I routinely endure a 40%-50% range penalty during a week of urban short trips. So half of 300 is 150 and that's doable for a week of not going anywhere. But half of 200 is 100 and that's not doable. Your mileage, pun intended, may vary.

I thought the "penalty" was for freeway work; EV range is better around town than on the highway. We get relatively poor range from averaging 80 on our commute.

The current Accord and Camry seem higher scale than the model3 is now.

Depends on how you spec them. My top-end Golf was a lot nicer than a low end BMW 3 series, for example.

 

[Uncle Paul]

The question is mute, as the only way to get a Model 3 now is with the larger battery. The smaller battery is not yet being produced.

 

[Dan43]

Bit unfair, all those deposits placed on a car that didn't exist, you are allowed to speculate, everyone else has.

 

[Glamisduner]

You will be able to get the larger battery for much less in the near future as battery costs decrease. Just keep waiting, and waiting and it will keep getting cheaper unless inflation catches up I imagine in 10-15 years it will not be even a 5k difference.

 

[Saghost]

I thought the "penalty" was for freeway work; EV range is better around town than on the highway. We get relatively poor range from averaging 80 on our commute.

Driving 80 I the freeway will certainly hurt range, but a lot of short city trips is usually worse - not from the energy to move the car, but from the energy to repeatedly heat/cool the cabin.

 

[TaoJones]

I thought the "penalty" was for freeway work; EV range is better around town than on the highway. We get relatively poor range from averaging 80 on our commute.

As noted above, 40-50% range penalties are easy to achieve during a week of short urban trips. Happens all the time. Welcome to Los Angeles.

Or not. For example, the Model 3 doesn’t have ventilated seats at present. Does it have Bioweapons Defense Mode? That will suck juice as well.