Is Model X really going to happen? Or will it break Tesla Motors?

[ecarfan]

People buying a Tesla will pay attention. So a botched launch, more delays, technical issues. People will hesitate to buy X & S. Tesla will miss its estimates. Stock will plummet. More people will get worried about buying from a company that is failing. Stop spirals to zero. The End

Wow. The sky is definitely falling. Tesla is doomed because the X production ramp is not happening a lot faster than the S ramp happened in 2012, when Tesla had never built a mass-produced car and no one had ever built a full-size long-range EV.
If you keep posting your doomsday TSLA scenarios in multiple threads like you are right now, you could lose any semblance of credibility you might once have had.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Tesla was far more vulnerable in mid-2012 when it also only started with a trickle of cars and it didn't have another car to fall back on. Now it has the Model S to tide it over. What it can't deliver yet in Model X, the Model S can carry easily given there is still a waitlist.

I don't see how the doomsday predictions have any merit.

 

[Tedkidd]

When people are talking about getting fed up what do you expect these people to do? I don't think there is any competition to a Model X. What would you buy in-stead? There is nothing out there that even gets close.

DING DING DING DING, we have a winner!

The Audi will be here in 2019... maybe? (A3 Etron was supposed to be here in October, I guess some cars are in port but it's still not on EPA list - so don't put money on their delivery promises either...)

So you want a car like this your choice is wait, or wait longer.

Welcome to being an early adopter. You pay the big bucks and carry around 20 lb cell phones with spotty service...

 

[macpacheco]

I am quite puzzled observing the patience of the X reservation holders,
and the Tesla crowd in general.
As you all know the model X is a few years behind schedule. And the
big "premiere" in September is now almost 3 months ago, and the situation
still seems status quo; only a few, if any deliveries, configurator not yet open...

Is there a mayor problem with the model X, not yet known to the public?
What is causing these endless delays? There should be a mayor ramp up
towards the end of the year but still, again nothing seems to happen...

Will this car ever be delivered to patient customers, or are we witnessing
the end of Tesla Motors as we know it today?

As production levels rise substantially delays have plummeted from the 2-3 month mark.
Tesla batches production to minimize finished car inventory and maximize production line efficiency.
Prioritize high end cars since they bring in more revenue and gross margins.
Assuming Tesla will make 17k cars in Q4 2015, that suggests 1500 cars / week, or enough cars to fill a hundred car shipping trucks, and many multi hundred batches.
At this point Tesla don't need to wait more than 2 weeks to make even the most basic S 70D (lowest priority).

Tesla is still far from being demand constrained.

My expectation is that Model S and Model X production each will eventually break 100k cars / yr, reaching combined 250k cars / yr.

Until Tesla has a serious BEV competitor, demand will continue to increase. Each car shipped to a neighbourhood without a Tesla previously leads to dozens of sales over many years as Tesla does no paid ads, word of mouth it is.
I also believe there's a hoard of fairly conservative potential Tesla customers that are in wait and see mode.

You do understand that Tesla Model S ramp up was about as slow as the Model X, and still initial Model S sales kept growing.

And the likely hood of Tesla getting real competition from traditional luxury car makers before 2020 isn't great. They might even come up with a good enough car, but I doubt the dealers will push those cars seriously.

 

[simplejack]

DING DING DING DING, we have a winner!

The Audi will be here in 2019... maybe? (A3 Etron was supposed to be here in October, I guess some cars are in port but it's still not on EPA list - so don't put money on their delivery promises either...)

So you want a car like this your choice is wait, or wait longer.

Welcome to being an early adopter. You pay the big bucks and carry around 20 lb cell phones with spotty service...

If all you care about is a BEV, then you are correct people will wait for the X.

I value the BEV aspect of the Tesla, but put much more value on driving dynamics/technology/comfort/utility. There are many choices for people like me.

 

[Tedkidd]

If all you care about is a BEV, then you are correct people will wait for the X.

I value the BEV aspect of the Tesla, but put much more value on driving dynamics/technology/comfort/utility. There are many choices for people like me.

I don't think people like you matter for a while. Plenty of early adopters for current supply. Some 1000 people paid a $40,000 deposit for an X - as long ago as what, 2013? Talk about serious patience and commitment! Then there's all the $5000 reservations. And resale value is very high against other lux cars, much less ev's, indicating high used demand. March reservations will be another litmus. I'll be in that queue.

My type will matter next. I don't think Tesla is missing critically important features, or that anything competes. I'm never driving ice again (I think more and more folks are becoming unwilling to compromise on that). So Tesla just have to keep value prop better than competition and they'll keep me when 3 launches.

I'm having trouble seeing competition created demand problems until 2020-22 when production and competition have really ramped. So if you aren't ev committed, that's when they need to win buyers like you..

 

[dirkhh]

I don't think people like you matter for a while. Plenty of early adopters for current supply. Some 1000 people paid a $40,000 deposit for an X - as long ago as what, 2013? Talk about serious patience and commitment! Then there's all the $5000 reservations. And resale value is very high against other lux cars, much less ev's, indicating high used demand. March reservations will be another litmus. I'll be in that queue.

My type will matter next. I don't think Tesla is missing critically important features, or that anything competes. I'm never driving ice again (I think more and more folks are becoming unwilling to compromise on that). So Tesla just have to keep value prop better than competition and they'll keep me when 3 launches.

I'm having trouble seeing competition created demand problems until 2020-22 when production and competition have really ramped. So if you aren't ev committed, that's when they need to win buyers like you..

I think it's more complicated than this. In general you are right, Tesla may be able to keep enough people excited and interested for a while - so selling 100k cars in 2016 should be doable (assuming they figure out how to produce them). But what about 2017? By then we should have a few almost semi-useful high end PHEVs in the market. And by 2018 maybe even some high end EVs (if Porsche, Audi and BMW come through). And as many people here will tell you, the fit and finish, the level of comfort, the available options... that's something where Tesla quickly could be outrun, IFF the German car makers decide to get serious about creating real competition for Tesla with a 40kWh Q7 or X6 or Mercedes GL PHEV - I think you'd be surprised how many people would be hard pressed which way to go. A more luxurious car with no range issue (you and I know range isn't an issue, yet that is STILL the first or second question I get), or the pure EV from the upstart US car maker that has the infinite delays and all the unkept promises and that is focused on getting the more than 2 years delayed Model III to market and really doesn't have any time and bandwidth to deal with the issues in the aging Model S and the Model X that is fraught with technical challenges, failing doors, rising insurance cost because a chipped wind shield is a $10k repair that includes a six months wait for a part...

Yes, I'm intentionally exaggerating here (at least I hope I'm exaggerating), but I'm trying to make a point. 2016 should be easy. And 2017 may still be OK. But come 2018 Tesla is likely to be feeling a lot of strain.

 

[Tedkidd]

yep to all that, plus local service, which is starting to be an unmanageable negative for Tesla - at least where I am.

I don't think the others'll have 400 mph charging infrastructure for 5-10 years.

Also, if those cars come out, will they compete with each other - or draw even MORE people away from ice?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I think it's more complicated than this. In general you are right, Tesla may be able to keep enough people excited and interested for a while - so selling 100k cars in 2016 should be doable (assuming they figure out how to produce them). But what about 2017? By then we should have a few almost semi-useful high end PHEVs in the market. ....
Yes, I'm intentionally exaggerating here (at least I hope I'm exaggerating), but I'm trying to make a point. 2016 should be easy. And 2017 may still be OK. But come 2018 Tesla is likely to be feeling a lot of strain.

So in other words, Tesla isn't going to do anything about the quality of their cars in 2016 and 2017 and just coast until the model 3 in 2018?! The model S improved pretty significantly between 2012 and 2015, and they still managed to design and build the model X. Why would it be impossible for them to improve the model X, while developing the model 3 over the next three years?

Yes Tesla might stumble, but in 2018, it's not the model S/X versus everyone else. It's the model 3 against everyone else. Just saying.

 

[GSP]

If all you care about is a BEV, then you are correct people will wait for the X.

I value the BEV aspect of the Tesla, but put much more value on driving dynamics/technology/comfort/utility. There are many choices for people like me.

All of the other choices have significantly worse dynamics and technology and comfort and utility due to the presence of an ICE. As a Chevy Volt owner for almost five years this is obvious to me. I suggest you need to drive electric for a couple of months. After that, you are completely spoiled for anything else.

GSP

 

[dirkhh]

yep to all that, plus local service, which is starting to be an unmanageable negative for Tesla - at least where I am.

Service experience has always been positive. Some decisions from corporate have been disappointing (e.g., the alignment issues with my driver side door), but the people at the SC are amazing. That said, the time it takes to schedule a non-emergency service appointment is ridiculous.

I don't think the others'll have 400 mph charging infrastructure for 5-10 years.

They have the deep pockets to make it happen if they choose to. If VAG (Porsche, Audi, VW, Bentley, Skoda and a bunch more brands) plus BMW/Mini decide on a shared standard and go for it, they certainly could catch up reasonably quickly. But yes, that is of course a massive barrier of entry.

Also, if those cars come out, will they compete with each other - or draw even MORE people away from ice?

Both. It would certainly grow the EV market overall. But right now we are seeing a lot of people tell frustrated reservation holder "suck it up, buttercup, there is nothing else you can buy". And that would change. Tesla couldn't get away with many of the mistakes they make today.

- - - Updated - - -

So in other words, Tesla isn't going to do anything about the quality of their cars in 2016 and 2017 and just coast until the model 3 in 2018?! The model S improved pretty significantly between 2012 and 2015, and they still managed to design and build the model X. Why would it be impossible for them to improve the model X, while developing the model 3 over the next three years?

Yes Tesla might stumble, but in 2018, it's not the model S/X versus everyone else. It's the model 3 against everyone else. Just saying.

As I said, I was intentionally exaggerating.
I will, however, say one thing.
Anyone who believes that the Model III will ship in 2017 or even 2018 is excessively naive.

 

[Papafox]

... Anyone who believes that the Model III will ship in 2017 or even 2018 is excessively naive.

I like your analysis, but I'm more optimistic than you regarding Model 3 timetable. If we look at Model S and Model X intros, I can see where your tiimetable pessimism is coming from, but Tesla knows that Chevy among others is scheduled to be producing a 200 mile BEV in 2017 and there's a real time constraint for Tesla on Model 3. Factors favoring a 2017 or 2018 arrival of Model 3 also include:
* Model S will share #2 body-in-white production line with Model X sometime in 2016 in order to free up #1 body-in-white line space in the factory for Model 3 production line development Tesla should be able to create the Model 3 production line within 18 months.
* Model 3 design reveal this spring
* Tesla learned its lesson with Model X: Model 3 will not contain the complexities of Model X and will be simpler to design and to produce
* Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and will be ready to produce Model 3 battery packs by late 2017
* While Model X still requires production team's focus, its design is essentially complete, freeing up manpower to move to Model 3 project

The roadster, S, and X have been means to bring Tesla to the point where it can deliver Model 3. The kind of delays we've seen with X will have negative consequences with Model 3 because of competition. I suspect Tesla is already putting more work into Model 3 than most of us realize.

 

[doctoxics]

I like your analysis, but I'm more optimistic than you regarding Model 3 timetable. If we look at Model S and Model X intros, I can see where your tiimetable pessimism is coming from, but Tesla knows that Chevy among others is scheduled to be producing a 200 mile BEV in 2017 and there's a real time constraint for Tesla on Model 3. Factors favoring a 2017 or 2018 arrival of Model 3 also include:
* Model S will share #2 body-in-white production line with Model X sometime in 2016 in order to free up #1 body-in-white line space in the factory for Model 3 production line development Tesla should be able to create the Model 3 production line within 18 months.
* Model 3 design reveal this spring
* Tesla learned its lesson with Model X: Model 3 will not contain the complexities of Model X and will be simpler to design and to produce
* Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and will be ready to produce Model 3 battery packs by late 2017
* While Model X still requires production team's focus, its design is essentially complete, freeing up manpower to move to Model 3 project

The roadster, S, and X have been means to bring Tesla to the point where it can deliver Model 3. The kind of delays we've seen with X will have negative consequences with Model 3 because of competition. I suspect Tesla is already putting more work into Model 3 than most of us realize.

Agreed. When asked on several occasions over the past year, Elon has stated that the Model 3 would start deliveries in late 2017. Seems Tesla is committed to this schedule.

 

[dennis]

Agreed. When asked on several occasions over the past year, Elon has stated that the Model 3 would start deliveries in late 2017. Seems Tesla is committed to this schedule.

And they will stay committed to that schedule until it becomes obvious that they can no longer achieve it.

 

[sub]

Model III reveal will be a boost for S/X sales just like the X reveal boosted Model S sales. I can wait until model III is produced but if I don't like the design that tesla reveals in 3-4 months then I'll plan on getting an S or X. I'm sure there are many others that will do the same. No design will please everyone, it's not a negative toward Tesla.

 

[Mark Z]

Couldn't the delay be as simple as Elon not wanting any Signature deliveries until the Founders versions are shipped?

 

[dirkhh]

Agreed. When asked on several occasions over the past year, Elon has stated that the Model 3 would start deliveries in late 2017. Seems Tesla is committed to this schedule.

Just like he repeated that Model X would start deliveries in 2013, err, 2014, err, 2015, I mean, launch in Q3, on Sep 30 and ship in Q4, err, I mean, maybe, some.

I like all the arguments. They sound convincing. I unfortunately heard them all when in 2013 and 2014 I doubted the delivery dates for the Model X. I was accused of being a Tesla hater when I said the Model X would ship in mid 2015. Of course the accusers had a point in that my prediction was, after all, wrong.

 

[BornToFly]

On another thread someone just posted that they just did a factory tour, and they were making X's like crazy. ""Too many to count." The ramp is happening folks!

 

[flankspeed8]

On another thread someone just posted that they just did a factory tour, and they were making X's like crazy. ""Too many to count." The ramp is happening folks!

Well I would hope so. Now if they could just get them out the door!

 

[Mark Z]

The photos and videos are showing "them out the door". When the delivery call occurs, then Model X can be driven home. Thanks to those posting photos, it appears that delivery for many early Signature deposit holders will occur before the end of the year.

Random Model X sightings - Page 61

2 Red X's delivered to Costa Mesa today!!