Is Model X really going to happen? Or will it break Tesla Motors?

[AudubonB]

Full disclosure: This is as unsubstantiated as the other posts here suggesting what may be the cause or causes of delays.

My only-slightly justified suggestion as to what may be occurring is that the ultra-large windshield, which apparently is sourced out of AGP's Lima, Peru factory, has had difficulties. These may be production-related - quality control, labor, etc.; they may be shipping-related; they may entail an unresolved disagreement between AGP and TM. From my very limited ability to look into this, I have an uncomfortable wonder whether the plant is able to produce the item in the quantity demanded. It seems that AGP is able to create wonderful, extremely complex products....in small quantities. Great for a presidential bomb-proof vehicle - but for mass production?

This post plus five cents can buy you a nickel.

 

[macpacheco]

I am quite puzzled observing the patience of the X reservation holders,
and the Tesla crowd in general.
As you all know the model X is a few years behind schedule. And the
big "premiere" in September is now almost 3 months ago, and the situation
still seems status quo; only a few, if any deliveries, configurator not yet open...

Is there a mayor problem with the model X, not yet known to the public?
What is causing these endless delays? There should be a mayor ramp up
towards the end of the year but still, again nothing seems to happen...

Will this car ever be delivered to patient customers, or are we witnessing
the end of Tesla Motors as we know it today?

The X is going to happen. No doubt about it. At least a dozen cars have been delivered. Its not a matter of if, but when.
Tesla is making as many Model S as it can. The production line is the same, so for each Model X that isn't being built today, a Model S is.
There is a growing mass of circumstantial data that suggests Q4 2015 will be the fastest yearly growth quarter for Tesla ever. That forecasts will match the top end of deliveries or even exceed the top guidance.
Its likely Tesla will make at least 10k Model X during 2016.

Tesla is doing fine for a 12 year car start-up. Considering what other car start-ups over the last 30 years did at least.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

(emphasis mine)

Sorry, but this is wrong. Renault has this since at least 3 years in the Espace. Plus their (5 back) seats are removable. And you can put them backwards. And you get a flat storage space, with or without them. (Downside is they are quite heavy.)

View attachment 104152

Wow, that's some amazing placement. I stand corrected. Others have mentioned the drawbacks of the Espace seats for the model X, but it seems I need to research some more before commenting again.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Believe these delays are only normal and should be expected when Tesla is rolling out a new model.

When the Roadster was released there was delay after delay to get the thing buttoned down. I remember the great single/multiple gear transmission controversy. They had durability issues with the two speed transmission and ended up settling on the single speed as the best choice (ended up being the right choice.

When the Model S was initially released they decided on going with multiple battery configurations, 40-60-85. 40 was quickly fazed out as the Supercharger network became a reality and the marketplace voted for larger capacity batteries to allow transcontinental travel.
Initial output was agonizingly slow to the thousands of people that had put down their deposits and were eager for delivery. As production ramped up they settled on a speed that was restricted by battery availability.

Then the Giga factory was announced and rolled out. Construction is going at a rapid pace to provide batteries for the planned less expensive model. Seems like a snails pace to viewers, but bet the going on over there ar being done as quickly as possible.

Now the Model X is being produced. It is a tremendous job to release a new model, even though it is based on the successful model S platform.

Really nothing to see here. Just Tesla being Tesla and gaining momentum to change the world.

 

[BornToFly]

I believe that Tesla was building the Model S as fast as it could for December deliveries in the US to make guidance. I think they had to hold off on the Model X because it is probably harder to assemble and would slow down the line. Now that Model S orders are showing January delivery in the US, I think they will start to really ramp up the X the last 2 weeks of the year. Just my theory...

 

[MrBoylan]

I believe that Tesla was building the Model S as fast as it could for December deliveries in the US to make guidance. I think they had to hold off on the Model X because it is probably harder to assemble and would slow down the line. Now that Model S orders are showing January delivery in the US, I think they will start to really ramp up the X the last 2 weeks of the year. Just my theory...

Delivery of any Tesla in Q4 is a high priority. Someone in the Paramus (NJ) store mentioned to me that a fair number of their service folks have been shipped off to California this month. It's All Hands on Deck, apparently.

I'm guessing there will be more than 100 Xes delivered in 2015, and also that Tesla will attain their lofty Q4 overall vehicle delivery goals.

 

[andrewket]

At some point the truth about the past three months will come out; it's inevitable. No public company can hide contentious details forever, especially if the public blame game ever gets going from disgruntled former employees. (We already got a little daylight from the clandestine and short-lived member "Eds.") The question is whether it will matter once Model X starts reaching customers in large numbers.

Of course, that's assuming Model X will reach customers in large numbers in time before customers call it quits.



Since there are many reports that Tesla designed the Model X with women (and their children) in mind, I'm rather shocked that the first row seats don't have an entertainment center built into the back like so many other family-oriented SUVs. Seems like a rather large oversight. With so many other car companies being able to design seats in all sorts of reasonable configurations, I'm surprised at how much of a problem the Model X's seats turned out to be. Can't wait to read the eventual dirt on what happened there!

Built in entertainment systems have been replaced with tablets. Cheaper, upgradable, and portable.

 

[AnOutsider]

Built in entertainment systems have been replaced with tablets. Cheaper, upgradable, and portable.

We've had this discussion before... But I'll just say that I know 3 families with multiple kids that own vehicles (one minivan, 2 SUVs) that have built-in entertainment, and they love it. I drove with one and was impressed with the "front audio for adults, rear audio for kids" setup.

We don't have it in our current vehicle, and use an iPad, so what you say is all very true... But even given those points, in a family vehicle such as this, I would opt for well-built in-car entertainment in a heartbeat.

 

[andrewket]

We've had this discussion before... But I'll just say that I know 3 families with multiple kids that own vehicles (one minivan, 2 SUVs) that have built-in entertainment, and they love it. I drove with one and was impressed with the "front audio for adults, rear audio for kids" setup.

We don't have it in our current vehicle, and use an iPad, so what you say is all very true... But even given those points, in a family vehicle such as this, I would opt for well-built in-car entertainment in a heartbeat.

Fair enough (and yes, we've had this convo before). We had the built-in in our minivan when the kids were younger and it was useful. But my kids are 10 and 11 now (boy and a girl) and they would never be able to agree on a movie or show. With the tablets and headphones, they each get to watch what they want, and the stereo system in the car is for mom and dad. We've tried using the S's audio system via Bluetooth on the rare occasion two people are watching the same thing, but the latency on the audio because of Bluetooth causes the video and audio to be out of sync which is quite annoying. Android has a video delay feature to counter this, but Apple still hasn't done it.

 

[AnOutsider]

Good point. Future proofing is definitely a concern. When we were going over configurations, we both had to stop a few times and realize we were making decisions based on CURRENT needs which could easily change in a few years.

 

[hobbes]

The Model S has been on the market for 3 years and it´s sales will sooner or later start to dwindle, rather sooner than later I fear,
the current time from order to delivery is now very short, from order is confirmed until the car is finished production is only
18 days, this doesn´t indicate a huge order reserve for model S:

Time from order to delivery is not only a function of backlog, but also of production rate and efficiency which has increased. As long as Model S sales are increasing every year worldwide, why would you expect demand to dwindle? Maybe that´s the Norwegian perspective, where the amazingly high sales has gone flat (Jan-Nov 3% down 2015 over 2014, see Bilsalget - Ofv AS).

Model S ramp up was as slow as for the X now and back then it was the only product they could make money from. As this didn´t break Tesla, the X definitely won´t. Nobody is talking about that any more now and in a year noone will be talking about the X growing pains either.

 

[donv]

I think the OP has a point. Oh, the X launch fiasco isn't literally going to break Tesla, but if it starts a downward spiral of bad news/reduced stock price/difficulty getting financing, and the Model 3 is a similar fiasco, it certainly could presage the end of Tesla. Also add in the Model S getting a bit long in the tooth, particularly if money and effort are not being expended to refresh it, and it could be bad.

Of course, this could just be a bump in the road, and Tesla keeps on advancing... only time will tell.

 

[Noone]

I think the OP has a point. Oh, the X launch fiasco isn't literally going to break Tesla, but if it starts a downward spiral of bad news/reduced stock price/difficulty getting financing, and the Model 3 is a similar fiasco, it certainly could presage the end of Tesla. Also add in the Model S getting a bit long in the tooth, particularly if money and effort are not being expended to refresh it, and it could be bad.

I think people are underestimating the risk of frustrating the customer base. If Tesla isn't careful this will turn into a stampede to the exit.

 

[hoskme]

I don't know about the Model S getting long in the truth. Many owners of recent vintage S were thrilled when Autopilot was released. There has been a steady steam of OTA upgrades to keep it fresh. I don't know how they could improve on its timeless good looks. The S is, for the foreseeable future, the only competition for the X and it is actually available now. That is one of the reasons that I cancelled my X reservation and ordered a S90D. Ordered Nov 9, expecting delivery in Western Canada Dec 22 or 23. I live 1200 km from the nearest Service Centre so there is a bit of delay in actually getting it out to me. Still, six weeks from order to delivery is pretty good.

 

[mikeash]

The delay from order to delivery depends heavily on what the factory is building. They seem to build cars in batches for different regions, so the delay fluctuates up and down a lot.

I started seriously thinking about ordering my Model S in October of 2014, and finally pulled the trigger on Christmas Day. Order to delivery was two months, with the projected delivery being March, and actual delivery happening right at the end of February. In October, it was projected to be about two months. At one point in the middle, it was about three weeks. Around late November or early December it was still saying Late December delivery. Then they must have filled up that block of orders, and it suddenly jumped to March.

 

[uselesslogin]

I think people are underestimating the risk of frustrating the customer base. If Tesla isn't careful this will turn into a stampede to the exit.

I find a comment like this strange personally. I mean the thing can be delayed another year and one group of people will be fed up and buy a different vehicle but a different group of customers that haven't been paying attention at all will learn that the Model X is out and then buy it. Consider how few Model S were sold the first year compared to today. Not that many people follow things this closely. Now, quality or safety issues? That will cause a stampede to the exit. So logically, a delay is a far better idea than rushing it out with quality or especially safety issues.

 

[Noone]

I find a comment like this strange personally. I mean the thing can be delayed another year and one group of people will be fed up and buy a different vehicle but a different group of customers that haven't been paying attention at all will learn that the Model X is out and then buy it. Consider how few Model S were sold the first year compared to today. Not that many people follow things this closely. Now, quality or safety issues? That will cause a stampede to the exit. So logically, a delay is a far better idea than rushing it out with quality or especially safety issues.

People buying a Tesla will pay attention. So a botched launch, more delays, technical issues. People will hesitate to buy X & S. Tesla will miss its estimates. Stock will plummet. More people will get worried about buying from a company that is failing. Stop spirals to zero. The End

 

[aija SigX 649]

I don't know about the Model S getting long in the truth. Many owners of recent vintage S were thrilled when Autopilot was released. There has been a steady steam of OTA upgrades to keep it fresh. I don't know how they could improve on its timeless good looks. The S is, for the foreseeable future, the only competition for the X and it is actually available now. That is one of the reasons that I cancelled my X reservation and ordered a S90D. Ordered Nov 9, expecting delivery in Western Canada Dec 22 or 23. I live 1200 km from the nearest Service Centre so there is a bit of delay in actually getting it out to me. Still, six weeks from order to delivery is pretty good.

IMHO, the design of a vehicle through iterative design tweaks, availability of new materials, and technological innovations, culminates in an ultimate and timeless balance of technology, function, styling, aerodynamics, comfort, quality, reliability and cost. At some point, it just becomes unnecessary to make frequent "appearance" changes at the current ~3yr refresh cycle beyond the enterprising and competitive goals of manufacturers. Yes, refreshing will and should continue, but not just for the sake of generating temptations and seeking profits at any cost. In the meantime, a well designed feedback loop for constant learning, generating a steady stream of SW upgrades should satisfy our insatiable need for change, in a more responsible way! This may not be a winning formula for a typical auto manufacturer frankly, but thankfully, Tesla is anything but your run of the mill shop! ..again IMHO.

 

[aija SigX 649]

People buying a Tesla will pay attention. So a botched launch, more delays, technical issues. People will hesitate to buy X & S. Tesla will miss its estimates. Stock will plummet. More people will get worried about buying from a company that is failing. Stop spirals to zero. The End

Ummm, Let's play a game. Knock, knock. Who's there? Noone! Oh, OK. Moving on.

 

[dutchinchicago]

When people are talking about getting fed up what do you expect these people to do? I don't think there is any competition to a Model X. What would you buy in-stead? There is nothing out there that even gets close.