Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

[SageBrush]

Ah, but when you NEED to visit the service center, you don't want long waits, especially if your car is in need of a repair. People on the S/X forums talk about having several week waits to get in in some areas.

The wait times should be seen in the context of how impaired the car was.

Cannot drive is a whole lot different than a squeak

 

[Topher]

But it was just to acquire the rockets, right? I don't think warheads were included in the deal.

When I spent time, during the cold war, living at the top of the tallest building in the vicinity of three high value military targets, I came to understand the concept of overkill. I couldn't care less if the ICBM Elon (hypothetically) drops on my head has a warhead or not.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Zythryn]

I think you seriously over-estimate how much super charger demand there is with current owners.... and also over-estimate how many Model 3's will be sold with super-charging which will almost definitely be an expensive option.

I have talked to people who are convinced there need to be as many rapid charging stations as gas stations and it's patently ridiculous. Your house with its connection to the electrical grid is the "gas station" for 99% of owners.

Super charging needing to grow is primarily to make long distance travel in an EV less painful... and that's about it.

Please don't equate my concern with people that suggest we need as many SC as gas stations. I have been arguing against that fact for years.

It isn't just about wait time (which do exist in some areas at some peak times).
It is more an issue of locations.
Tesla, every year, sets out a plan for SCs. And every year, they fall short by 30%-50%. This year, in the U.S., there have been a terrible lack of new SCs.
We were supposed to have one in DeMoines in 2014, then 2015, now 2016. Same for Minneapolis/St.Paul.

These very well may get built this year, but I have lost confidence in Tesla's ability to reach their goal for the year.

This wasn't a huge deal with the roll out planned to reach 500,000 in 2020.
But for 2018? They need to start meeting their self stated goals.

Both for coverage, and crowding.

 

[Waiting4M3]

With 500K new EV drivers coming in 2 years, there might be larger incentive for others to partner with Tesla to build more SC locations?

 

[model3fan]

He said that he'll have Model 3 finalized in 6 - 8 weeks.

That stood out to me too... I wonder what that means in terms of HUD

 

[Toolsmack]

How many of you model 3 reservation holders would be willing to increase their deposit for a faster ramp up. I think I would. Now what if putting down a $5k deposit would move you up the priority list and $10k even higher. Would you do it? That I would definitely do.

 

[model3fan]

Here's a good play by play of the earnings call for anyone interested (link for mobile)

Elon Musk grows more aggressive on Tesla growth: Live blog recap

 

[voip-ninja]

How often does one need to visit a service center?

According to consumer reports, quite a lot!

 

[JeffK]

How many of you model 3 reservation holders would be willing to increase their deposit for a faster ramp up...

I don't think it'll work like that. I mean there a matter of getting all the suppliers in a row and that's not something Tesla can control by throwing money at it. Also, I'd like them to still take some time and care with validation of the manufacturing process and get the Model 3 dialed in (defect free) before shipping orders. In the Q1 call Elon said it was as recent as last Friday they had their first Model X produced with zero defects. I want nothing but good press for Tesla so I hope they hold themselves to the highest standards with Model 3. This is their make it or break it car and it's the car that's going to change the world.

 

[heysteveh]

The short-sellers will love to claim Elon is bluffing. I say, no, he's not bluffing; don't bet against Tesla Motors. But the short's won't listen.

Isn't it exciting to watch the highest-stakes Poker game around?[/QUOTE]

Well said!

 

[Bimbels]

I agree about the service centers. My closest is 1h15 away - fine for annual service but not ideal. And definitely not fine if you need to go in for anything else - which I've had to do. It will turn some potential buyers away.

 

[SageBrush]

During that call EM mentioned that 93% of reservations were from first time Tesla'ites.
Presuming 400k reservations, this puts something of a ceiling on priority reservations at
400,000*0.07 = 28,000

 

[Steepler2k]

I agree about the service centers. My closest is 1h15 away - fine for annual service but not ideal. And definitely not fine if you need to go in for anything else - which I've had to do. It will turn some potential buyers away.

Not currently an owner, and it makes me very nervous for the 3. The closest service center to me is over 2 hours and in another state. I think I'm glad I'm on the east coast and down the list so hopefully most kinks are worked out by the time my number comes up.

 

[Bimbels]

Not currently an owner, and it makes me very nervous for the 3. The closest service center to me is over 2 hours and in another state. I think I'm glad I'm on the east coast and down the list so hopefully most kinks are worked out by the time my number comes up.

It's interesting because before we got our tesla (husband replaced his car) we were considering replacing my car. I was hell bent on sticking to cars with dealerships on the island we live on, since the alternatives were 35 minutes away. My current car falls into the off-island category and it is too much of a pain - then again my car is 9 years old and is starting to need more "attention."

There are definitely many holes in Teslas service area right now. While the regular maintenance of a Tesla is significantly less than an ICE car, those new to EVs or those not willing to take the plunge probably won't be able to get beyond that, initially anyway.

That said, I doubt this is being overlooked by Tesla. I would not be surprised if a service center opens closer to me between now and when I get my model 3.

 

[McHoffa]

100,000 by the end of 2017? wow that's awesome. I ordered at 10:15 am EST on the east coast so I'm probably in the top 30,000 orders placed. Considering i get bumped by employees, previous owners and those on the west coast, I assume I'll get mine around 120,000th in the order list which puts me right around the beginning of 2018. I'll be happy with that. Make sure any kinks are worked out.

They were at 115k worldwide partway into the reveal. I'd say if you ordered at 10:15, you're probably in the first 10k in the US. What number were you in line at your store? Multiply that by 100 (about the # of US Tesla stores). Give or take a few thousand (depending on how fast orders were going through at your store compared to others) that is about your place in line. My store had connection issues, so even though I was #27 waiting outside, I didn't order until 10:30am, and was actually about #20 in my store to order (other line was slower).

If Musk says they hope to deliver 100,000 to 200,000 by the end of 2017, I guarantee we'd both get ours next year even if they don't come close to meeting their goals. If they do meet that target, I would probably even get my wife's next year, though like I said, I'd hold off on delivery of that until just after Jan 1 so I could get a second tax credit.

 

[brianman]

During that call EM mentioned that 93% of reservations were from first time Tesla'ites.

John, not Elon.
Tesla Q1'16 Earnings Conference Call: Full Transcript

 

[sleepyhead]

They were at 115k worldwide partway into the reveal. I'd say if you ordered at 10:15, you're probably in the first 10k in the US. What number were you in line at your store? Multiply that by 100 (about the # of US Tesla stores). Give or take a few thousand (depending on how fast orders were going through at your store compared to others) that is about your place in line. My store had connection issues, so even though I was #27 waiting outside, I didn't order until 10:30am, and was actually about #20 in my store to order (other line was slower).

If Musk says they hope to deliver 100,000 to 200,000 by the end of 2017, I guarantee we'd both get ours next year even if they don't come close to meeting their goals. If they do meet that target, I would probably even get my wife's next year, though like I said, I'd hold off on delivery of that until just after Jan 1 so I could get a second tax credit.

I am pretty sure you can claim 2 tax credits in 1 year.

Unless, of course you don't have the tax liability needed to get it, since it is non-refundable...

 

[McHoffa]

I am pretty sure you can claim 2 tax credits in 1 year.

Unless, of course you don't have the tax liability needed to get it, since it is non-refundable...

right... we probably wouldn't be able to get back $15k in one year, but we'd definitely get back $7500 each year

 

[AustinPowers]

I think pushing Model 3 out asap is a good move for many reasons:
...

• Allows Model 3 enter German market while EV credits are still in effect (which means that BMW and MB will be subsidizing Model3!)

Sorry, but wrong. Half of the incentives are paid by the German state, i.e. the taxpayer, the other half is payed by the car companies themselves. So Tesla would only subsidize us Model 3 buyers (as Model S and X are not eligable for the incentives anyway).

 

[AustinPowers]

Yep. Having a plan is good, but this is beyond reality.

Stock market seems to agree. Haven't seen such a massive three day drop in TSLA price in months
Fortunately though, I am a long-term investor

And the prospect of possibly getting my maxed out Model 3 a little earlier is really something.