Launch is Imminent

[strider]

There is no way the quad will be 90+k. In 2019 the top trim was announced at 69k you're talking about almost 50% more than its announced price! Literally every single Tesla has less than a 10k increase (and in many cases gone *down* in price) since 2019. 79k is the most logical price point for the quad* motor.

*slight caveat, that is assuming the announce 1/2/3 > 2/3/4 motors is accurate. It is possible they have the same tri motor as announced at 79k and add a quad motor above that, sort of a plaid mode CT.

Your caveat is key. Quad motor wasn't on the table at the launch. Like I said, the competition for the quad motor is the Hummer which is $108k.

Bingo!
Every single Tesla's new sale's price has tanked over the past 1-2 years.
Observe the most recent massacre of Model X prices, from $120,990 in August (dual motor, or AWD/LR, whatever), to $79,990 in early September. Similar for Model S. Similar for Model 3:
View attachment 973089

Tesla Car Historical Prices Analysis

This analysis was initially conducted in May 2023. For the most recent updated version, please check out…

leonwei.com

On top of that, EV battery price have been on a decline lately as well, due to drops in Lithium and Cobalt prices, and growth in manufacturing scale:

Lithium Prices Are Down, Cheaper Batteries and EVs Could Follow

The key ingredient in batteries has fallen more than 30% after a big rally.

www.wsj.com

Anyone who thinks that CT will go up in price much from the announced numbers, is smoking something that's still no legal.

$39,900 - Base. Shitty range. Will be last to go on sale.
$49,990 - Dual motor. Usable range.
$69,990 - Tri motor. Max range. My baby.

Regardless of what the announcement prices might be, they will get cut within 6 months of the release!

IMHO,
a

Inflation has taken prices up 18% over the past 4 years. Further, IIRC, no other Tesla model had pricing announced 4 years before production began. So you can pull up all the charts you want but they aren't relevant to the CT.

S/X prices were cut to stimulate demand, not because they became cheaper to produce. CT demand will initially be high and so will the prices. I agree that they will cut CT prices but once demand drops. No idea when that will be but probably longer than 6 months.

The cheapest Model 3 is $40k. There is NO WAY that there will be a CT of any configuration for less than that. It is a much larger vehicle than a Model 3.

The cheapest CT will be $49k. There will probably be a tri-motor for $70k but I doubt it will have the largest battery.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Bingo!
Every single Tesla's new sale's price has tanked over the past 1-2 years.
Observe the most recent massacre of Model X prices, from $120,990 in August (dual motor, or AWD/LR, whatever), to $79,990 in early September. Similar for Model S. Similar for Model 3:
View attachment 973089

Tesla Car Historical Prices Analysis

This analysis was initially conducted in May 2023. For the most recent updated version, please check out…

leonwei.com

On top of that, EV battery price have been on a decline lately as well, due to drops in Lithium and Cobalt prices, and growth in manufacturing scale:

Lithium Prices Are Down, Cheaper Batteries and EVs Could Follow

The key ingredient in batteries has fallen more than 30% after a big rally.

www.wsj.com

Anyone who thinks that CT will go up in price much from the announced numbers, is smoking something that's still no legal.

$39,900 - Base. Shitty range. Will be last to go on sale.
$49,990 - Dual motor. Usable range.
$69,990 - Tri motor. Max range. My baby.

Regardless of what the announcement prices might be, they will get cut within 6 months of the release!

IMHO,
a

a mundane Model Y dual motor - a *compact* SUV - goes for $50k .... so yeah... Tesla is going to price a AWD Cybertruck, with air suspension, stainless steel body, a ton of space and towing at the same price as a Model Y.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Not really.
How am I to play a cowboy in a minivan?!?!
Plus, good luck towing anything of reasonable weight and size with a minivan!

most trucks never tow...

 

[Kevy Baby]

How am I to play a cowboy in a minivan?!?!

Okay, you gave me a chuckle!

Plus, good luck towing anything of reasonable weight and size with a minivan!

I have no skin in this game, but it is repeatedly shown how the majority of pickup owners only tow something once per year and a fair portion ever use it for hauling things that couldn't be accommodated by an SUV or minivan. Economically, it would make MUCH more sense for people to get a smaller, more economical vehicle and rent when they truly need something larger.

BUT: all those statistics are irrelevant as people will just continue to get pickups. My wife still drives a Toyota Sequoia (their largest SUV) simply because she prefers to sit up high - especially at night. Thankfully she doesn't drive much (<5K miles per year) as this beast gets really cruddy mileage. And we tow something maybe every couple of years.

 

[afadeev]

Okay, you gave me a chuckle!

I have no skin in this game, but it is repeatedly shown how the majority of pickup owners only tow something once per year and a fair portion ever use it for hauling things that couldn't be accommodated by an SUV or minivan.

Right. I only speak for my own use-case and needs.

Economically, it would make MUCH more sense for people to get a smaller, more economical vehicle and rent when they truly need something larger.

Not really.
Renting a properly rated tow vehicle is extremely non-trivial.
If you need to two Scouts trailer to camp outs every other month, or grab 4 adult bikes for a ride when the weather is right and schedule is free, then it's somewhere between impractical and impossible.

BUT: all those statistics are irrelevant as people will just continue to get pickups. My wife still drives a Toyota Sequoia (their largest SUV) simply because she prefers to sit up high - especially at night. Thankfully she doesn't drive much (<5K miles per year) as this beast gets really cruddy mileage. And we tow something maybe every couple of years.

The towing needs and vehicle selection are very personal choices.
So are the financial considerations.
If finance are the primary constraints, EVs are rarely the right choice.

YMMV,
a

 

[ewoodrick]

Okay, you gave me a chuckle!


I have no skin in this game, but it is repeatedly shown how the majority of pickup owners only tow something once per year and a fair portion ever use it for hauling things that couldn't be accommodated by an SUV or minivan. Economically, it would make MUCH more sense for people to get a smaller, more economical vehicle and rent when they truly need something larger.

I remember passing a truck yesterday, since it was raised, it was easy to see that there had never been a hitch inserted into the perfectly black receiver.
Once a year is an overestimate. I suspect that once in a car's first sale lifetime is still an overestimate.

Heck my Model Y has pulled more than most pickups.

It's just like seeing the lifted trucks with absolutely no dirt on the undercarriage. It's just for looks.

 

[Buckminster]

https://x.com/greggertruck/status/1701690962278576427?s=20

 

[ewoodrick]

Bingo!
Every single Tesla's new sale's price has tanked over the past 1-2 years.

And how many pickups sit on a dealer lot without a "$10,000 Off" sign plastered all over it?

Tesla has done something that the classical auto industry can't understand. They are lowering prices while the cars are still selling well.

 

[afadeev]

And how many pickups sit on a dealer lot without a "$10,000 Off" sign plastered all over it?
Tesla has done something that the classical auto industry can't understand. They are lowering prices while the cars are still selling well.

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the motivation behind Tesla price drops.

$10,000 off for a pick-up? Try $41,000 off for a Model X.
Care to ask how current Model X owners feel about that little muskturd?

 

[ewoodrick]

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the motivation behind Tesla price drops.

$10,000 off for a pick-up? Try $41,000 off for a Model X.
Care to ask how current Model X owners feel about that little muskturd?

Nope, different things. The pickup never changes the MSRP.

And this is FAR from the first price reduction that Tesla has ever done. Unlike other manufacturers, Tesla is passing the economies of scaling the production back to the customers.

But then again, you are probably one that complains about EVs being too expensive.

 

[ThomasD]

In some instances renting a Truck when you need one is a good idea. It all depends on if you can get one when you need one. Even people who just tow a few times a year a Pickup may be more practical to own than to try and rent one. The guy down the road from me has a 1 ton crew cab with a utility flat bed on it. I have only seen him tow his gooseneck trailer about 4 times in the past 6 months. But I think that trying to rent a 1 ton flatbed when he needs one would be very hard. They also have a Ford Ranger. The wife uses the Ranger to go to work. The Dually is his daily driver. I don't need a top-of-the-line high end Truck. Just give me a Truck that has the options I want and does what I want it to do and at a reasonable price.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Nope, different things. The pickup never changes the MSRP.

And this is FAR from the first price reduction that Tesla has ever done. Unlike other manufacturers, Tesla is passing the economies of scaling the production back to the customers.

But then again, you are probably one that complains about EVs being too expensive.

lol. yeah... that's why margins have been falling. Tesla simply giving too much goodness back to the customers. Couldn't possibly be related to softening demand, high interest rate environment etc? (irony/sarcasm - please don't report me)

 

[jabloomf1230]

If Tesla uses AI for anything, it's to manage inventory and production. Such management produces the optimal prices for each model and trim.

 

[navguy12]

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the motivation behind Tesla price drops.

$10,000 off for a pick-up? Try $41,000 off for a Model X.
Care to ask how current Model X owners feel about that little muskturd?

My dad (God rest his soul) was a salesman for 42 years (he was the type who could sell anyone anything).

He taught me that should I decide to buy a product and I am ready and willing to pay the price, then make the decision and move on.

Buying a vehicle is never an “investment“; my dad said to always hold onto a new vehicle at least to the point where almost all the depreciation had taken place.

I remember paying $1999.00 for a 286-20 computer back in 1988; looks ludicrous on paper now, but at the time I was ready and willing to pay that price for a product I wanted (and I get it that it is not a large durable good like a TMX).

I find many folks on these forums, who after making a rational decision in a free market environment to buy a Tesla product, become disillusioned because of something that happens after the fact.

I’ll go jump into the foxhole now…

 

[EXOTIC1]

Neighbor bought a 2017 Mercedes s65 ( coupe) msrp was 241K ………..
He sold it a few months back with 37K miles for 70K …. Post Covid used car prices were all time crazy high. The market is catching up along with the supply chain. It is what it is.

 

[Kevy Baby]

Not really.
Renting a properly rated tow vehicle is extremely non-trivial.
If you need to two Scouts trailer to camp outs every other month, or grab 4 adult bikes for a ride when the weather is right and schedule is free, then it's somewhere between impractical and impossible.

The towing needs and vehicle selection are very personal choices.
So are the financial considerations.

I was commenting basically on the fact that most truck owners only tow once per year. If you're towing six times per year (or more), then it is a different discussion.

 

[ThomasD]

I noticed that the Vault cover has what appears to be wear stripes on the cover. Is the coating being rubbed off from repeated opening and closing?

 

[Kevy Baby]

I remember passing a truck yesterday, since it was raised, it was easy to see that there had never been a hitch inserted into the perfectly black receiver.

[snip]

It's just like seeing the lifted trucks with absolutely no dirt on the undercarriage. It's just for looks.

Usually when I see these guys, I assume they are overcompensating. "Sorry about your _____ dude."

 

[snorp]

What’s the latest news/rumors regarding if it will be a 5 seater or 6 seater?

 

[mongo]

I noticed that the Vault cover has what appears to be wear stripes on the cover. Is the coating being rubbed off from repeated opening and closing?
View attachment 973423

That truck has what appear to be dirt lines all over