Launch is Imminent

[ewoodrick]

Wow, the kool-aid is strong with this one. You didn't answer @afadeev's question. If Tesla is so noble that they pass on their cost savings to consumers, why have prices moved up in the past? It's because the order book was thick. Now the order book is thin so they are dropping prices.

Other manufacturers leave their MSRPs the same but offer "incentives" when demand falters. This is probably related to their agreements with their dealers. Since Tesla doesn't have dealers, they just change the MSRP in response to demand. They are 2 different ways of doing the same thing - lowering the price to entice more people to buy. It's no different than any other retail business.

Because they tended to be raised when parts shortages existed, and the prices went up?

I'm not saying that the don't do any demand pricing, but they really haven't done much of until this year.
But also look at the published profit margins on the cars, there are times where it seems that the profit per car was huge!

 

[Earl]

Unless Elon is out there holding a gun to peoples head, it would more accurate to say Tesla manipulates prices in response to demand.

It's actually based mostly on backlog which is partially due to demand, but, up to now, is more due to production capacity.
The big price dropped as they brought Austin and Berlin Gigafactories online.
With most car companies that have production capacity to build many millions of cars, demand is the driver. Tesla was still building that capacity.
Back when they had a 6 month backlog between orders and deliveries, they used pricing to slow its growth from getting out of control and having to commit to prices when costs could change in 6 months.
This was a lesson they learned with the early Roadsters. They promised us pricing 1.5 years before they could deliver. Unfortunately the costs exceeded that price so they were it a tough pickle. They ended up honoring our promised prices but they did reduce some of the trim features (no included wall charger, basic radio w/o GPS, simple rims, basic upholstery, hard-top extra, etc).
It appears that they want to keep the backlog under 6 months these days and will increase the price as needed to do so.

 

[Mrbrock]

Yes 250 is a need for many who tow their boats and their toy haulers to locations without power. If you do not tow then perhaps you do not know?

I don’t tow boats or toy haulers but I have used the tow hitch on my model y to haul yard trimmings to the dump 2-3 times a year. As far as towing boats and toy haulers, unless you are buying an electric truck to offset the emissions from your toys, seems kinda silly. Most people live much more than 125 miles from their recreation spots of choice.

Elon will make sure the CT beats the Hummer SUT in performance and range. Hummer range is 381 and 0-60 in 3.0. If the CT can do that as a tri-motor then you may be correct on the quad but Elon promised 500 mile range at the launch and I expect them to hold to that.

Also, higher performance requires larger battery pack (higher range) in order to get the per-cell discharge rate where it needs to be supply the large amounts of power without damaging the cells. This is why the Roadster 4.0 was announced w/ 600 mile range - they needed a 200kWh battery pack in order to get the discharge rate where they needed it. Obviously battery chemistry has changed since then so they probably don't need as large as they did a few years ago but there is still a correlation.

Elon promised a Plaid+ Model S, even allowed reservations on them, then it didn’t even make it into production. Elon allowed reservations on LR RWD MY, that didn’t make it into production either. A page that allowed reservations and showed specs and prices 4 years ago is not a “promise” that something will make it into production. These way too early reservations are a way for Tesla to gauge interest and balance that against production costs and see what actually makes sense to build.

There were supposed to be cost savings from exoskeleton only. Now they have to build a unibody frame underneath. They were counting on extra range and cost reduction from 4680. They haven’t achieved either yet. They are closing in on both but still not there yet so the initial pricing will be higher due to these factors.

As far as beating the hummer EV, I don’t know if wanting to be better than that monstrosity is a good thing if it takes that much battery to do it. I see Elon being happy with 350 miles with a much smaller battery and better efficiency. Efficiency is what makes Tesla money. Less material means less cost and allows you to scale. 100k vs 1k sold per year? One makes money and the other requires so many resources that it hurts the company in the long run.

 

[ewoodrick]

It's actually based mostly on backlog which is partially due to demand, but, up to now, is more due to production capacity.
The big price dropped as they brought Austin and Berlin Gigafactories online.
With most car companies that have production capacity to build many millions of cars, demand is the driver.

Honestly, production and demand are so separated with the traditional dealership model, that demand is relatively bogus. Customers don't order cars, dealers order cars. And the timeline between dealerships ordering them and they hitting the lot is probably 6-12+ months. There could easily be models that would sale significantly, but if the dealer network doesn't believe it, then customers never get to see the car.

Dealers order based on anticipate markup and revenue, along with a healthy dose of "I got to get it off the lot" A prime example is how you always tend to have to spend more on packages that you don't want, because those are the only cars on the lot.

Tesla has the ability to relatively accurately judge demand and produce what consumers want.

It's a different paradigm.

 

[Knightshade]

FWIW at least with SOME dealers you CAN order what you actually want- they just usually make it a PITA to do so, but worth it if you find a reasonable dealer and you're not in a hurry- had to do this with my last ICE car as they literally did not make what I wanted for dealer stock but it was technically possible to get based on their option book.

Teslas model is mostly better here in that you can go online and order what you want easily, though by the nature of them wanting to keep manufacturing simple you have a lot fewer options to pick from than a customer legacy order usually offers.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Tesla is no longer allowing orders of the SR (or was it SR+?) Model Y. This was, I believe, the only model to be utilizing 4680s. Some are taking this as a sign that Tesla is allocating those batteries for CT production. Make of it what you will.

 

[ewoodrick]

FWIW at least with SOME dealers you CAN order what you actually want- they just usually make it a PITA to do so, but worth it if you find a reasonable dealer and you're not in a hurry- had to do this with my last ICE car as they literally did not make what I wanted for dealer stock but it was technically possible to get based on their option book.

Teslas model is mostly better here in that you can go online and order what you want easily, though by the nature of them wanting to keep manufacturing simple you have a lot fewer options to pick from than a customer legacy order usually offers.

And I heard someone talking about this in the last few days (and it follows my experience), you can indeed order and get your car in about 12-18 months currently.

 

[rhumbliner]

And I heard someone talking about this in the last few days (and it follows my experience), you can indeed order and get your car in about 12-18 months currently.

And in the meantime I received calls from salespeople at least once a week saying they have a brand new model on the lot NOW and it’s almost exactly what I ordered — except for the color and trim package. I finally cancelled cuz I couldn’t take the harassment any longer.

 

[Maryland]

Tesla is no longer allowing orders of the SR (or was it SR+?) Model Y. This was, I believe, the only model to be utilizing 4680s. Some are taking this as a sign that Tesla is allocating those batteries for CT production. Make of it what you will.

I hope it's to build materials for CT production. However, I have read that the V1 4680 has fallen short of expectations concerning energy density, performance, and production requirements. I wonder if this cease in orders is related to that.

 

[afadeev]

I'm not saying that the don't do any demand pricing, but they really haven't done much of until this year.

Please provide data to substantiate your claim.
Price history shared above suggests just the opposite!

But also look at the published profit margins on the cars, there are times where it seems that the profit per car was huge!

Tesla profit margins have been on a steady decline for over 2 years.

If you believe otherwise, site your sources.

 

[EXOTIC1]

Please provide data to substantiate your claim.
Price history shared above suggests just the opposite!



Tesla profit margins have been on a steady decline for over 2 years.
View attachment 973838
If you believe otherwise, site your sources.

……. But we love the fact the stock is up 150% in the last nine months.

 

[ewoodrick]

Please provide data to substantiate your claim.
Price history shared above suggests just the opposite!



Tesla profit margins have been on a steady decline for over 2 years.

If you believe otherwise, site your sources.

"profit per car" was my wording.

And indeed, you pretty well showed it, yes, over the last year, you've seen the overall profits decline because they decreased the margins on the cars.

But here you go

Charted: Tesla’s Unrivaled Profit Margins

This infographic compares Tesla's impressive profit margins to various Western and Chinese competitors.

www.visualcapitalist.com

I think that says that Tesla's per car margins are 5 times that of GM, the next best?

As of last year, Tesla could cut $7,000 and still beat GM on profit per car.

 

[strider]

As far as beating the hummer EV, I don’t know if wanting to be better than that monstrosity is a good thing if it takes that much battery to do it. I see Elon being happy with 350 miles with a much smaller battery and better efficiency. Efficiency is what makes Tesla money. Less material means less cost and allows you to scale. 100k vs 1k sold per year? One makes money and the other requires so many resources that it hurts the company in the long run.

Well, we are all just keyboard warriors here, speculating away with very little info. We will find out soon enough. From my standpoint, having been a Tesla customer for over 13 years and observing Elon during this time, what makes Elon happy is having the "best" thing, whatever that is. I do not think he will be happy if the Hummer EV outperforms the CT in either range or speed/acceleration. Now maybe they can do that w/ a tri-motor or maybe not. Elon has said that quad is in the works so we will see.

 

[electricjib]

Tesla is no longer allowing orders of the SR (or was it SR+?) Model Y. This was, I believe, the only model to be utilizing 4680s. Some are taking this as a sign that Tesla is allocating those batteries for CT production. Make of it what you will.

When I worked there the only reason the SR+ Y was being made was because they couldn't get the cells to the capacity they were hoping at the time. I'm not sure what their plan was for CT, but no one was happy with the yield and results of the 4680 at the Cyber Rodeo. I'm sure it's improved but it was definitely an uphill battle between the investor day in Fremont and Giga Rodeo.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BRKjZmDgDWKw?s=20
Some new technical details in wheel arch.

 

[T3SLAROD]

Can’t see, looks like Twitter is dead right now

 

[mongo]

Can’t see, looks like Twitter is dead right now

Link is working for me.

 

[willow_hiller]

Can’t see, looks like Twitter is dead right now

It's a link to a Spaces, which may or may not work depending on your OS and App version. It also doesn't work for me on the Android App, but will likely work on PC.

 

[afadeev]

Link is working for me.

I'm not logging into proprietary social media to subsidize their advertising revenue.
If you have something valuable to share, post it here directly!

 

[Mrbrock]

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BRKjZmDgDWKw?s=20
Some new technical details in wheel arch.

Can you post what you linked to for those who don’t want to use that platform? It will also keep the information viewable if the content is deleted (see all MarcoRP supercharger related content since his X account has been suspended)