Launch is Imminent

[electricjib]

that's not how it works... do you really think in 6 yrs from now anyone is willing to take delivery of a 2023 spec Cybertruck? By then the 2nd Generation F150 Lightning / Rivian and probably GM is already on the street or upcoming. if you pre-ordered fully refundable in 2019/2020 and then get a delivery slot in 2028+ ... you are probably not wanting that truck anymore

also - drop off with $100 (fully refundable) pre orders from 4 years ago (!) is a lot lot higher than only 50%. Especially with the price likely significantly higher than $39k starting (...)

F150 Lightning production has been halted, and has been stopped on numerous occasions due to battery issues, parts availability, staffing, unions etc. I would feel pretty confident in saying there will be more Cybertrucks on the road from a year of production, than Ford having a 2-3 year head start. Heck even their battery plant isn't going to be profitable.

Even if Tesla loses pre-orders they'll gain some back, they'll add new production lines (some people forget about the 3.5 billion dollar expansion project in NV. At the time they built an area for the Y to go into possible production on site at Giga NV. It never materialized, but the space was made for a stamping machine), they have their own internal cell manufacturing, internal plastics department, internal material resourcing, etc. Most factories in the US are essitinally assembly plants. Tesla makes it all under one roof for the most part.

Even with Inflation, the head start others have gotten, I expect the CT will do incredibly well and even garner new orders once they are launched.

 

[EXOTIC1]

that's not how it works... do you really think in 6 yrs from now anyone is willing to take delivery of a 2023 spec Cybertruck? By then the 2nd Generation F150 Lightning / Rivian and probably GM is already on the street or upcoming. if you pre-ordered fully refundable in 2019/2020 and then get a delivery slot in 2028+ ... you are probably not wanting that truck anymore

also - drop off with $100 (fully refundable) pre orders from 4 years ago (!) is a lot lot higher than only 50%. Especially with the price likely significantly higher than $39k starting (...)

Lol … way more than 50 %
What about new orders coming in on top of existing orders. Like I said it can be spun anyway you want the narrative 2 be. Also there is that chance… some of companies you just mentioned may not even be around in six years.

… Not how it works thx 4 the chuckle

 

[uscbucsfan]

Lol ok….. way more than 50 %
What about new existing orders coming in just like I said it can be spun anyway you want the narrative 2 be. Also chance… some of companies you just mentioned may not even be around in six years.

The reservations are mostly based on early pricing and specs. We know the size has been reduced, it's not an exoskeleton, no 6th seat, frunk is smaller, possibly no ramp, rear wheel steering was added...but the pricing and range will be the biggest determination on demand outside of the Tesla fanatics. The pre-orders really do mean nothing, but assuming Tesla delivers good range at a good value, the CT will be popular.

IF the CT comes in way overprice and doesn't have the original advertised range, it will struggle outside of the initial deliveries, but it's a guarantee that they will sell all they can make for the first year.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Lol … way more than 50 %
What about new orders coming in on top of existing orders. Like I said it can be spun anyway you want the narrative 2 be. Also there is that chance… some of companies you just mentioned may not even be around in six years.

… Not how it works thx 4 the chuckle

new orders for a product you earlier stated it would take Tesla ~6yrs to get done with just the existing orders cut in 1/2 ? so new orders *now* for "expected delivery date October 2028/2029 ?"

 

[T3SLAROD]

I still remember the YT videos of people Pre-ordering 10+ CT’s…..

Then there are those looking to profit ……

But yeah 2 million reservations verified by?

 

[EXOTIC1]

new orders for a product you earlier stated it would take Tesla ~6yrs to get done with just the existing orders cut in 1/2 ? so new orders *now* for "expected delivery date October 2028/2029 ?"

Like I posted, thanks 4 the chuckle
I guess the analogy that I gave you that was even if it’s cut 60% you’re still going to have new orders coming in from people who didn’t order it can’t be that hard to figure out
Will be interesting to see how many orders drop off and how many new orders are placed

yes, I do think it’s going to be a 5 year window to fill orders as the truck evolves.
Why don’t you give us your prediction since I take, your assumption ( previous postings) is demand will be minimal and they will have no problem filling them in a two- year window

 

[willow_hiller]

People are so desperate for Cybertruck details, they appear to be breaking into employee vehicles:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1708942876309434498

Anyone speak Russian? Some Twitter comments claim there's a comment about range, but it's not apparent on the screen.

 

[ThomasD]

I wish someone would sneak a picture of a Door Sticker.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I still remember the YT videos of people Pre-ordering 10+ CT’s…..

Then there are those looking to profit ……

But yeah 2 million reservations verified by?

No one has verified it. The fan sourced reservation tracker, I think, has some 48k entries. The owner of the tracker is simply guessing the total reservations based on the RN #s provided, but that's it.

 

[CyberGus]

No one has verified it. The fan sourced reservation tracker, I think, has some 48k entries. The owner of the tracker is simply guessing the total reservations based on the RN #s provided, but that's it.

"It's hard to say what the volume exactly would be for the Tesla Cybertruck. The orders are gigantic, so, we have like, I don't know, well over half a million orders. I think maybe six-hundred thou -- it's a lot, basically. We stopped counting." - Elon Musk, Sep 2020

IDK if another 1.4M reservations were added in the last two years, but Elon has confirmed that it's a really big number regardless. Of course, I only care about reservations in front of mine lol

 

[texas_star_TM3]

"It's hard to say what the volume exactly would be for the Tesla Cybertruck. The orders are gigantic, so, we have like, I don't know, well over half a million orders. I think maybe six-hundred thou -- it's a lot, basically. We stopped counting." - Elon Musk, Sep 2020

IDK if another 1.4M reservations were added in the last two years, but Elon has confirmed that it's a really big number regardless. Of course, I only care about reservations in front of mine lol

lol. you can take that statement to the bank. so precise. Why would Elon *NOT* know the exact number of pre-orders? it basically is: amount of transactions charged to credit cards *minus* refunds = precise number of pre-orders in the system at any given moment...

 

[mongo]

lol. you can take that statement to the bank. so precise. Why would Elon *NOT* know the exact number of pre-orders? it basically is: amount of transactions charged to credit cards *minus* refunds = precise number of pre-orders in the system at any given moment...

Doesn't know != can't know.
I know my bank balance at a much coarser level than the pennies, but I can look it up, if it mattered, which it doesn't, usually.

 

[afadeev]

"It's hard to say what the volume exactly would be for the Tesla Cybertruck. The orders are gigantic, so, we have like, I don't know, well over half a million orders. I think maybe six-hundred thou -- it's a lot, basically. We stopped counting." - Elon Musk, Sep 2020

That statement is pure marketing BS to impress meek minds.
If a reservation is submitted into a customer database and deposit is processed, you literarily do not "stop counting" it. DB does it for you.

IDK if another 1.4M reservations were added in the last two years, but Elon has confirmed that it's a really big number regardless. Of course, I only care about reservations in front of mine lol

Exactly.
For what it's worth, I entered my reservation a few weeks AFTER the reveal. After supposedly hundreds of thousands had submitted theirs, if you trust Musk's claims.
Nevertheless, mine was one of the "early" ones to have the reservation status changed to "You will be notified to complete your Cybertruck configuration as production nears".

Which would imply that either most folks ahead of me had "cancelled" their reservations, or there weren't that many reservation received to begin with, and Musk's boasting about reservation line size is just hot air. Another "funding secured" pronouncement.
You be the judge.

 

[ThomasD]

What do you guys think bolt on rear Bed Sides?

 

[uscbucsfan]

I see a ton of comments that there is no way those are 3mm, but I don't think you can tell.

We already knew that the SS was attached to the frame and doesn't actually support any weight and it's not an exoskeleton by anyone outside of Musk's definition.

I don't think this changes any opinions I have of the vehicle...I guess it confirms what we already knew?

 

[mongo]

For what it's worth, I entered my reservation a few weeks AFTER the reveal. After supposedly hundreds of thousands had submitted theirs, if you trust Musk's claims.
Nevertheless, mine was one of the "early" ones to have the reservation status changed to "You will be notified to complete your Cybertruck configuration as production nears".

Which would imply that either most folks ahead of me had "cancelled" their reservations, or there weren't that many reservation received to begin with, and Musk's boasting about reservation line size is just hot air. Another "funding secured" pronouncement.

You are assuming that change of status, and timing thereof, has any meaning. As opposed to geographical region update or the DB slowly updating all the entries.

 

[afadeev]

You are assuming that change of status, and timing thereof, has any meaning. As opposed to geographical region update or the DB slowly updating all the entries.

Not at all, just going of what others have publicly reported (source sited).
If you have information to disprove that report, please share.

 

[mongo]

Not at all, just going of what others have publicly reported (source sited).
If you have information to disprove that report, please share.

In that case, you are accepting their assumption and adding your own 'imply'. I see that article also has the incorrect phasing of a 'promise' of Q3 deliveries, even after the Q3 'end of the year' update.

RN116 locked:
You cannot edit design at this time"

 

[cusetownusa]

That statement is pure marketing BS to impress meek minds.
If a reservation is submitted into a customer database and deposit is processed, you literarily do not "stop counting" it. DB does it for you.


Exactly.
For what it's worth, I entered my reservation a few weeks AFTER the reveal. After supposedly hundreds of thousands had submitted theirs, if you trust Musk's claims.
Nevertheless, mine was one of the "early" ones to have the reservation status changed to "You will be notified to complete your Cybertruck configuration as production nears".

Which would imply that either most folks ahead of me had "cancelled" their reservations, or there weren't that many reservation received to begin with, and Musk's boasting about reservation line size is just hot air. Another "funding secured" pronouncement.
You be the judge.

Why does that imply that people ahead of you canceled? Just because it now says

"You will be notified to complete your Cybertruck configuration as production nears"?

Mine has always said that since day one and I ordered a year ago.

People need to relax and stop jumping to wild conclusions and getting angry over them. Once the specs and pricing are released then make your decision. Until then everything is just speculation, including the number of reservations. Not to mention, the reservations don't really mean much until the Specs/pricing is released.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What will the CT do?

Talking about speculation, here is some concrete speculation:

I’m going to guess 380Wh/mi (DC) rated. So 42kWh/100mi (AC, sticker) or so. 80MPGe. (This would be really good, way better than Silverado. And slightly better than the most efficient Rivian, 78MPGe combined.)

I think this is likely on the somewhat optimistic side (tried to bias the guess that way). Below 75MPGe overall would be VERY bad though!!! Really want to see a nice high number on the longer-range variant with dual/tri/quad motors with less off-road oriented tires.

They’ll need a roughly 190kWh battery for 500 miles (33705Wh/Ge/80mi/Ge*0.9*500mi = 189.6kWh)! That’ll be about an 8000-pound truck. There's not really much way around a battery that size. Knock it out of the park with 85MPGe? 180kWh...

I think it's pretty unlikely it'll be less than 7500 pounds in the promised maximum-range variant. But hopefully not much more. Rivian with a similar-sized 180kWh pack is probably going to be about 7700 pounds. The truck needs to be robust to be a real truck with a suspension that doesn't self destruct, so have to figure out how to make it strong enough without adding too much weight. Seems hard!

I guess I remain optimistic that the delays mean they're actually trying to get the truck right. I don't think the styling matters that much to many people - what will matter is whether it is a good durable truck, and how it compares in cost of ownership to other similar trucks. If it's actually good and consistently puts in 50 thousand plus miles without any significant service like some of their other vehicles (my personal experience only), people will buy it.

All just guesses. Until there's actually some detail on the specs and cost it's really hard to say how it's going to do. Hopefully launch is imminent!