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Have you driven an F150 lately? I had a brand new one as a rental a few years ago. It felt like it was broken. Lots of noise and rumbling for very little acceleration. It's not going to be too hard for the CT to put a big dent in pickup sales. Obviously it's not going to replace them all, but it might push Ford and GM closer to bankruptcy. Is your argument that the CT won't have enough demand, or just that it won't cut into very many pickup sales, or both?

all depends on price & specs of the Cybertruck we don't know yet...

if the CT launches ~$70k for AWD with ~300-350 miles of range it won't make a big dent into gasoline pickup truck sales. Hint: That's above what most truck buyers can afford or want to afford. A F150 Lariat AWD goes for ~$60k ; the F150 XLT trim for low $50s.... at nearly 7% average car interest loans many can't afford to finance another +$10k-$20k to drive an EV truck...

if the CT launches near specs as "promised" 4 years ago.... and delivers 300+ miles in range for just about $50k+ and priced like a Model Y or at parity of a gasoline AWD full size truck .... then it will be a hit.

We will know more in 10 days...
 
all depends on price & specs of the Cybertruck we don't know yet...

if the CT launches ~$70k for AWD with ~300-350 miles of range it won't make a big dent into gasoline pickup truck sales. Hint: That's above what most truck buyers can afford or want to afford. A F150 Lariat AWD goes for ~$60k ; the F150 XLT trim for low $50s.... at nearly 7% average car interest loans many can't afford to finance another +$10k-$20k to drive an EV truck...

if the CT launches near specs as "promised" 4 years ago.... and delivers 300+ miles in range for just about $50k+ and priced like a Model Y or at parity of a gasoline AWD full size truck .... then it will be a hit.

We will know more in 10 days...
Need to review that CT event and count how many times the words “we Promise” are stated. Betting the average is 0. Granted it doesn’t make your spin as dramatic.
 
Need to review that CT event and count how many times the words “we Promise” are stated. Betting the average is 0. Granted it doesn’t make your spin as dramatic.

No, the spin is all the nonsense that’s been spread online over the last 4 years about the “value” “500 miles” blah blah….

All of a sudden it’s “dramatic”
 
I probably wouldn't unless I needed to tow something, but why not?

Have you been saying the CT won't replace the lightning, or just pickups in general?
well...the Lightning isn't exactly selling in huge numbers ... with 15k sold in 2022 and maybe (?) 50-60k in 2023 ?

Are we moving the goal post now and say that Tesla's Cybertruck will be such a smash hit it will eat into the 15k - 50k annual share of the Lightning ?

going back to the original Cybertruck reveal from 2019 and the consensus has been that this is GAME OVER for Ford / Chevy gasoline pick up trucks... the Lightning wasn't unveiled until May 2021.... long after the Cybertruck was unveiled
 
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Once the Tesla Fans have their CT is where the real story will begin. How many can Tesla convert from the Big 3 to jump to the CT?
yup. and that's where actual utility, specs, price - AND - design play a HUGE role. outside of the early adopters/ fanboys you have to work hard to convert customers and have them switch brands/ products
 
well...the Lightning isn't exactly selling in huge numbers ... with 15k sold in 2022 and maybe (?) 50-60k in 2023 ?

Are we moving the goal post now and say that Tesla's Cybertruck will be such a smash hit it will eat into the 15k - 50k annual share of the Lightning ?

going back to the original Cybertruck reveal from 2019 and the consensus has been that this is GAME OVER for Ford / Chevy gasoline pick up trucks... the Lightning wasn't unveiled until May 2021.... long after the Cybertruck was unveiled
The current F150L is v1, and admittedly Ford is already promoting their nextgen T3 pickup (Trust The Truck) which is due out in 2025/2026 timeframe and will be the first EV pickup that Ford releases that is entirely designed and built from the ground up as an EV pickup: Ford's F-150 Lightning Follow-Up, Called 'Project T3,' Is Coming in 2025

I'm a member of several F150L groups and I see a fair amount of HV BMS/battery pack posts with serious intermittent issues that often result in the packs being replaced on those groups, much more than what I see in the Tesla forums, which on at least some level is telling given how many Tesla's are on the road when compared to F150Ls these days. The v1 trucks seem prone to HV battery pack issues in other words, with much more frequency than Tesla vehicles overall, which on some level makes sense given Ford doesn't have much real world experience building BEVS and has yet to iron out all of the gremlins with their BMS - this will only come in good time. Here's one example from today alone (I see these types of post almost every day now):

1700501983987.png


Specific to the CT market, I think traditional pickup truck buyers aren't likely to jump into a CT as it's too polarizing to be frank. These are mostly traditional buyers who don't want to drive a polarizing vehicle - that's why they drive a pickup truck already. I think the CT will appeal to a new subset of buyers as opposed to traditional pickup buyers in other words. Not saying the CT won't win some prospective pickup buyers over - it definitely will - but I think we're not going to see a huge migration over to the CT from traditional pickup buyers as some prognosticate here. I think the more traditional pickup buyers are more likely to buy a Rivian or another more traditional EV pickup design - especially once these manufacturers gain access to the Tesla SC network.
 
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As someone who owned Lincolns from the 1960s and 1970s (with all that stainless steel trim), IMO it’s probably to prevent fingerprints on the stainless steel bodies.
That and Tesla doesn't want a bunch of pics of the interior - including the range on the screen - showing up all over the place prior to the official release date - which is exactly what would happen if it's not roped off.
 
Need to review that CT event and count how many times the words “we Promise” are stated. Betting the average is 0. Granted it doesn’t make your spin as dramatic.

Famously, false advertising cases only hold up if the company uses the words, "We promise."

Wait, no, that's not how that works.
 
The current F150L is v1, and admittedly Ford is already promoting their nextgen T3 pickup (Trust The Truck) which is due out in 2025/2026 timeframe and will be the first EV pickup that Ford releases that is entirely designed and built from the ground up as an EV pickup: Ford's F-150 Lightning Follow-Up, Called 'Project T3,' Is Coming in 2025

I'm a member of several F150L groups and I see a fair amount of HV BMS/battery pack posts with serious intermittent issues that often result in the packs being replaced on those groups, much more than what I see in the Tesla forums, which on at least some level is telling given how many Tesla's are on the road when compared to F150Ls these days. The v1 trucks seem prone to HV battery pack issues in other words, with much more frequency than Tesla vehicles overall, which on some level makes sense given Ford doesn't have much real world experience building BEVS and has yet to iron out all of the gremlins with their BMS - this will only come in good time. Here's one example from today alone (I see these types of post almost every day now):

View attachment 992302

Specific to the CT market, I think traditional pickup truck buyers aren't likely to jump into a CT as it's too polarizing to be frank. These are mostly traditional buyers who don't want to drive a polarizing vehicle - that's why they drive a pickup truck already. I think the CT will appeal to a new subset of buyers as opposed to traditional pickup buyers in other words. Not saying the CT won't win some prospective pickup buyers over - it definitely will - but I think we're not going to see a huge migration over to the CT from traditional pickup buyers as some prognosticate here. I think the more traditional pickup buyers are more likely to buy a Rivian or another more traditional EV pickup design - especially once these manufacturers gain access to the Tesla SC network.

The other side of the coin is owners like myself with 36k miles and no issues at all.
 
if the CT launches ~$70k for AWD with ~300-350 miles of range it won't make a big dent into gasoline pickup truck sales. Hint: That's above what most truck buyers can afford or want to afford.

That simply is not so.



70k is actually slightly lower than the average transaction price of a new GMC Sierra (which is $71,718 and whose annual sales are RIGHT about where Tesla said their annual CT sales targets were), and only slightly higher than the ATP of an ICE F-150 ($66,787).

Assuming the $7500 rebate applies to CT then a 70k CT would be less than what most truck buyers can afford or want to afford.


Famously, false advertising cases only hold up if the company uses the words, "We promise."

Wait, no, that's not how that works.

Since even if you HAD a case for false advertising at the reveal (which if you go back and look at what was said, and how it was said, you don't) your max damages would be a few years of interest on your $100 deposit. GL with all that.
 
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as we're discussing in the other thread, that 2500 appears to be specifically the BED capacity-- suggesting total capacity is the originally discussed 3500 lbs (5 passengers making up the other 1k).

It could be they mean 2500 total even though the # is given in the back half of a sentence clearly and specifically about the bed (which isn't where passengers go) but that'd be a very weird way to word it.
 
as we're discussing in the other thread, that 2500 appears to be specifically the BED capacity-- suggesting total capacity is the originally discussed 3500 lbs (5 passengers making up the other 1k).

It could be they mean 2500 total even though the # is given in the back half of a sentence clearly and specifically about the bed (which isn't where passengers go) but that'd be a very weird way to word it.

I don’t think that’s what that means, but we have a week to find out
 
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