Launch is Imminent

[thyname]

I wonder if it was taken down because it was proven false, or if Elon took it down to suppress facts?

Impossible Elon took it down. He is known to be a huge proponent of free speech and will never surpress free speech in his platform, even if it is contrary to his interests

 

[jebinc]

Fresh article/survey -

Tesla Cybertruck: Survey finds that two-thirds of respondents wouldn't buy it

A new survey finds most people would not buy Tesla’s Cybertruck.

www.aol.com

 

[jebinc]

It’s more useful to talk about efficiency, though range is obviously important and an offshoot of that. Efficiency is where to look though, as metered in the car (and yes, it is accurate enough in Teslas for this purpose, they don’t make up numbers or scale them to look better).

This is standard stuff:
1) To establish range matching EPA tests you need to drive until your brand-new car stops moving and is disabled in the middle of the road.
2) Tesla has nominally 4.5% below 0%. You have to use it to get the range (not recommended). No idea how Rivian manages this.
3) Tesla uses a scalar different than 0.7 (so does Rivian) which boosts range relative to Rivian by as much as 10%, with no actual change to best-case range and efficiency.
4) Rivian may do things (unlock more capacity) to prevent capacity loss as batteries age, I don’t know. This would make it do better on range but only over time. Does not impact efficiency (so easiest to just look there).

Due to point 3 Tesla does not make efficiency as expected, relative to Rivian. It’s best just to look at raw results and scale by 0.7.

Did you see this table? Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1732172457908273511

 

[Knightshade]

Fresh article/survey -

Tesla Cybertruck: Survey finds that two-thirds of respondents wouldn't buy it

A new survey finds most people would not buy Tesla’s Cybertruck.

www.aol.com

Canaccord would not disclose the total number of people surveyed, but did note that it included a broad group of respondents who were not among the 2 million Cybertruck reservation holders

We can't tell you how many people we asked-- or even who they were other than "not reservation holders" but 2:1 they don't like it. Trust us bro!


Course, if we apply that only 1/3rd figure TO reservation buyers and buy into the 2M reservations number, that still means Tesla doesn't need to find a single "new" buyer until probably 2027 or 2028 depending how fast they scale production.

At which point I guess they can sell to the 1/3rd who said yes in this mystery survey

WHAT TERRIBLE NEWS!!

 

[jebinc]

We can't tell you how many people we asked-- or even who they were other than "not reservation holders" but 2:1 they don't like it. Trust us bro!


Course, if we apply that only 1/3rd figure TO reservation buyers and buy into the 2M reservations number, that still means Tesla doesn't need to find a single "new" buyer until probably 2027 or 2028 depending how fast they scale production.

At which point I guess they can sell to the 1/3rd who said yes in this mystery survey

WHAT TERRIBLE NEWS!!

FACT - I didn't say it was "terrible news," so don't try to put false words in my mouth to suit your ulterior motives. FACT - I just shared the article for those who might be genuinely interested. Please don't reply (for me), as I will not reciprocate any further (on this or the other "back and forth" earlier).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Did you see this table? Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1732172457908273511

View attachment 997010

Coastdown test results are correlated to but do not represent actual vehicle efficiency at those speeds (actual consumption will be higher!).

They’re also curves just generated from coefficients which may not be fitted to a physical model so I cannot speak to trying to draw anything from them. Unfortunately they’re also important for setting up the dyno. No idea how this plays out in actual test results. Seems kind of like garbage in garbage out, but I want to be clear I have no idea what I am talking about on this particular topic.

(You could argue you see the aero advantage of Rivian here, with the drivetrain efficiency advantage of Cybertruck, but I don’t think it’s worth drawing those conclusions given the way the data is generated. To be clear the Rivian should do better at high speed.)

 

[jebinc]

Coastdown test results are correlated to but do not represent actual vehicle efficiency at those speeds (actual consumption will be higher!).

They’re also curves just generated from coefficients which may not be fitted to a physical model so I cannot speak to trying to draw anything from them. Unfortunately they’re also important for setting up the dyno. No idea how this plays out in actual test results. Seems kind of like garbage in garbage out, but I want to be clear I have no idea what I am talking about on this particular topic.

(You could argue you see the aero advantage of Rivian here, with the drivetrain efficiency advantage of Cybertruck, but I don’t think it’s worth drawing those conclusions given the way the data is generated. To be clear the Rivian should do better at high speed.)

Thanks!

 

[Knightshade]

FACT - I didn't say it was "terrible news," so don't try to put false words in my mouth to suit your ulterior motives.

At no point did I cite YOU as having said that. On the contrary, pretty clearly I said it, albeit sarcastically.

So don't try to put false accusations in the thread to suit....whatever it is you think you're doing...

FACT - I just shared the article for those who might be genuinely interested.

FACT- I just pointed out how silly their refusal to actually reveal the sample groups size, let alone any demographics besides "not CT res holders"

Maybe they asked 5 guys at a Prius meetup.

Maybe they asked 10 million F-150 owners.

NOBODY KNOWS (or at least isn't saying- and one must wonder WHY they wouldn't say).

Please don't reply (for me), as I will not reciprocate any further

You keep saying that but replying anyway. I do not think it means what you think it means.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1732456027633684647

 

[texas_star_TM3]

The $25,000 car was mentioned in 2018, so with inflation and the Fed tax help, it is already here in the M3SR. Considering we are in a world where Nissan can sell a loaded Altima for $36k, it makes little sense to deliver a cheaper car. The $39k CT at the 2019 announcement is about $46k in today's dollars and by the time it hits the road...

funny how INFLATION is used to justify Cybertruck price increases somewhat from 2019 --> 2023 .... however in the same time *every* other Tesla vehicle went down in price. So I guess inflation only impacted the Cybertruck but not the rest of the lineup....

 

[HitchHiker71]

funny how INFLATION is used to justify Cybertruck price increases somewhat from 2019 --> 2023 .... however in the same time *every* other Tesla vehicle went down in price. So I guess inflation only impacted the Cybertruck but not the rest of the lineup....

I think the pricing was set to intentionally separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak. Those who really want the product and will pay anything for it, will keep their reservations, which will likely add up to be a minority of the total reservations outstanding prior to the launch/delivery event. The pricing all still clearly says "est" on the website, meaning Tesla could change the pricing at any point in time during the product ramp. I actually think Tesla is intentionally setting the prices high to slacken demand, or push out the deliveries across a longer demand curve. If Tesla lowers pricing next year as the ramp increases, that will generate additional reservations, and in at least some cases those additional reservation holders may be the same reservation holders that cancelled initially. In so doing - this pushes out the demand curve. Those who were owed a CT "tomorrow" that were early in line, which then cancelled, then make a net new reservation after prices fall next year, are now slotted to take delivery three years out instead of next year. Same net number of reservations, but the delivery timing is pushed out quite a bit - which helps Tesla to manage their ramp over the next 12-18 months.

 

[jebinc]

For $120,000 plus accessories, destination, tax and license - early day zero reservations, it seems.

 

[cusetownusa]

So founders series cost an additional $20k. With that additional $20k it looks like they provide the Powershare Home Backup equipment, in addition to other things.

Anyone have any idea or guess how much the Powershare Home Backup equipment is valued at?

This is one of the things I am most interested in about the CT but I can't find much information on it.

 

[HitchHiker71]

So founders series cost an additional $20k. With that additional $20k it looks like they provide the Powershare Home Backup equipment, in addition to other things.

Anyone have any idea or guess how much the Powershare Home Backup equipment is valued at?

This is one of the things I am most interested in about the CT but I can't find much information on it.

I'm also interested in details about the Powershare Home Backup solutions, as we will be replacing our roof within the next few years and am seriously considering going solar with a couple of Powerwalls alongside the Powershare solution for emergency backup power.

 

[zoomer0056]

If Tesla lowers pricing next year as the ramp increases, that will generate additional reservations, and in at least some cases those additional reservation holders may be the same reservation holders that cancelled initially.

If price drops, I can see a whole new set of threads saying Tesla ripped us off and must do the right thing.

 

[jebinc]

If price dops, I can see a whole new set of threads saying Tesla ripped us off and must do the right thing.

Yep, all the to be hosed early Cybertruck adopters will be raising the pitchforks; like we saw with the Plaid that is now nearly 40% cheaper to purchase. Tesla has a well-worn track record of taking care of the early adopters of their products...

Another good example of Tesla early adopter treatment is those that fell for the FSD pitch in 2018. I'm talking about the "buy it now as the hardware in your car is there for L5 FSD - coming 'soon'". At the time, that was HW2.5, I recall.... five years later, Tesla is shipping HW4 and no where near delivering on what they told the "early adopters" in ~2018. Those "Early adopters'" hardware (car purchased) WILL NEVER run a L5 FSD stack - NEVER. I think the consolation prize was a free HW3 computer and some better cameras...

Revisiting the Plaid example.... besides the price drop, there is also the "early adopter" hardware tax.... that being (at the "Plaid delivery event" (hint-hint)), the car was shown/marketed with stuff not delivered to those "early adopter" cars, such as things like the tilting UI screen, UI computer and memory able to run Steam/Witcher 3 and more. These were all "marketed" during that "delivery event," and/or listed on the order page at the time... as was false statements about FSD. Good luck, early CT adopters - GOOD LUCK!

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

So founders series cost an additional $20k. With that additional $20k it looks like they provide the Powershare Home Backup equipment, in addition to other things.

Anyone have any idea or guess how much the Powershare Home Backup equipment is valued at?

This is one of the things I am most interested in about the CT but I can't find much information on it.

PowerShare stuff:

$1300.00 for Tesla Gateway
$595.00 Universal wall connector
~$600-1000 for a auto load transfer switch, unless the gateway handles that as well?

 

[EvilNuff]

The pricing is pretty simple, they had too much demand. Rumored 2 million reservations and ~200k a year production gives them 10 years to work through the reservation list. It is readily apparent that they were going to raise prices. What is ridiculous is Elon saying the 150L is too expensive and then releasing the CT at more money.

Obviously they are trying to milk as much money as possible from the initial rush of demand even at exaggerated prices. Just as obviously they will reduce price when demand drops.

 

[jebinc]

The pricing is pretty simple, they had too much demand. Rumored 2 million reservations and ~200k a year production gives them 10 years to work through the reservation list. It is readily apparent that they were going to raise prices. What is ridiculous is Elon saying the 150L is too expensive and then releasing the CT at more money.

Obviously they are trying to milk as much money as possible from the initial rush of demand even at exaggerated prices. Just as obviously they will reduce price when demand drops.

Sure, Business 101 - but it's a short term boost (typical Quarter to Quarter business mind-set), and could cause a long-term brand harm as they continually screw the loyal early adopters of their products.

 

[Yelobird]

FACT - I didn't say it was "terrible news," so don't try to put false words in my mouth to suit your ulterior motives. FACT - I just shared the article for those who might be genuinely interested. Please don't reply (for me), as I will not reciprocate any further (on this or the other "back and forth" earlier).

Oh come on. Don’t do the “I’m taking my toys and going home” play. I rather love that he is challenging your continuous/endless jabs. Fun reading for a change!