Plus plugged in at home so the battery will mostly be full all the time. I do drive 200~ miles 1-2 times a month. Even in this cold weather. There is no access to any charging stations till I reach my destination.
I'm in San Diego...so zero experience with extreme cold...but just note that the range hit is extremely noticeable in San Diego even when it is 40-50 degrees.
Anyway, I agree with most others here and don't recommend the Tesla for these winter conditions and this use scenario, if you're not willing to make changes to the baseline assumptions. You basically will have to add 240V to make this even have a chance of working.
You don't want to leave your battery at 100% - so you'll be making special adjustments to your charge level for those 1-2 trips a month. For those occasional long trips you'd be able to charge to 100%, but you'd absolutely need a good home wall charging solution (I would go for a Wall Connector, 48A 240V setup for your scenario - since you're outside, will need to preheat to maximize range, etc., and the more wattage available the better). And you have to make sure your electrical service panel can support this. That high wattage charging solution is basically a must for you. This is because for preheating, you can EASILY use 5kW from the charger just on cabin & battery heat (it peaks at over 7kW, maybe as high as 10kW). You want to be pulling ALL of that energy from the wall, and none from the battery, prior to the trip. And if you want to continue to charge the car while preheating, you'll need that full 11kW.
In addition, after the 200 mile drive to your destination (I assume it is not 200 miles round trip?), you either need an hour stop at a Supercharger, or you need to wait ~7 hours at a 48A 240V connector (not a standard charging station), to fully recharge. A more typical public charger will take more like 10-15 hours to fully recharge from ~0%.
Personally, even after adding the 240V solution, I would treat these long trips in the extreme cold in a Tesla (or really in any vehicle) as life-threatening events, so please be sure to bring your extreme cold weather gear, 0 degree or even warmer down sleeping bag, and emergency food and water (and maybe even a *good* canister camping stove to melt ice/water...though that may be too cold to count on it?).
More typically (every day use) you're going to be charging your battery to ~80%. And it's not great to routinely run a battery down below 10%. So then you're looking at 70% "typically usable" of your battery, or 215 miles of range "typical" - which will be a little over 100 miles of real range in extremely cold winter with normal climate use.
If you did go for it, I'd recommend the RWD LR version...but they don't make it anymore. You need maximum range. And the RWD works mostly fine in the cold snow from what I understand.
For the AWD, you take a hit on efficiency due to the drivetrain, and it's not that uncommon for people to be below 200 miles of range on a 100% to 0% discharge, in adverse conditions (which have to be assumed for this discussion, even if sometimes you will do better!), if they use climate control.
