Long-term Model 3 demand

[SwTslaGrl]

On the India topic,

Nissan chooses India for first global digital hub
2 Jul 2018 at 15:04
WRITER: KYODO NEWS

"NEW DELHI: Nissan Motor Co will establish its first global base in India to enhance efficiency in operations and services through digitalisation, illustrating the Japanese carmaker's commitment to one of the world's major automobile markets.

The digital initiative will allow Nissan to provide enhanced user experiences, product development capabilities, security and connectivity as the automotive industry evolves, with growing use of autonomous, connected and electric vehicle technology, according to the company."

Nissan chooses India for first global digital hub

 

[Olle]

If Model 3 is at 1m to 2m, then who is supplying the other 100m+ annual units in 2025 to 2030, which is the subject of this thread?

I am with you on this one. Once you've driven electric for any period of time there is no way back. We are close to the tipping point for EVs to take over with Tesla in pole position.

1. ICE below critical mass for supporting a profitable gas station network 2. Exhaust cars become outlawed in public places like school car pool lanes, work places and so on (smoking analogy). It's easy to see how ICE market then collapses. The perfect storm is building.

 

[electracity]

I somewhat agree with your points except for the grid one. Anyone who can afford a Model 3 can also buy a few solar panels to charge from, should they be unhappy with their grid reliability.

Significant grid unreliability will probably greatly decrease EV demand, regardless of the ability to purchase solar. I'm curious if home batteries have begun to replace gensets in upscale India. I've seen news about South Africa, but not India.

 

[Olle]

Significant grid unreliability will probably greatly decrease EV demand, regardless of the ability to purchase solar. I'm curious if home batteries have begun to replace gensets in upscale India. I've seen news about South Africa, but not India.

Grid unreliability could be even more of a hindrance for ICE demand, since you don't want to wait for long periods at the gas station for the pump to turn on. But you can easily leave your EV plugged at home or office, ready to charge whenever the electricity comes on.

 

[electracity]

Grid unreliability could be even more of a hindrance for ICE demand, since you don't want to wait for long periods at the gas station for the pump to turn on. But you can easily leave your EV plugged at home or office, ready to charge whenever the electricity comes on.

If you ran a gas station in a highly populated area with unreliable power would you buy a genset? The payback time on that purchase would be about a month.

 

[Olle]

If you ran a gas station in a highly populated area with unreliable power would you buy a genset? The payback time on that purchase would be about a month.

I would buy some solar panels and battery storage

 

[Reality]

Three over 10m!!!!


Yes!!!!!!

 

[schonelucht]

From Elon Musk interview today

But I do not see us doing another thing where we go five times bigger. Once we break through to mass market cars, where mass market is on the order of a quarter million vehicles per year, I cannot see us doing a 1.2 million-vehicle program of one particular model.

Makes sense. Diversification is good. You do not want to sell 1 million Model 3s in a year. You want to sell 300k Model 3s, 300k Model ys, 300k pickups and 100k S/X.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

From Elon Musk interview today



Makes sense. Diversification is good. You do not want to sell 1 million Model 3s in a year. You want to sell 300k Model 3s, 300k Model ys, 300k pickups and 100k S/X.

I noted this quote as well. It's not clear if Elon meant YoY growth vs. long-term sales, and at one factory vs. global sales etc.

 

[electracity]

From Elon Musk interview today
Makes sense. Diversification is good. You do not want to sell 1 million Model 3s in a year. You want to sell 300k Model 3s, 300k Model ys, 300k pickups and 100k S/X.

Exactly. The Model Y will go into production while the model 3 is still supply constrained because it is a risk mitigation strategy. 600K total vehicles with 500K being model 3 is probably a perfectly doable plan. But that plan "bets the farm" on a single car model.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I am with you on this one. Once you've driven electric for any period of time there is no way back. We are close to the tipping point for EVs to take over with Tesla in pole position.

1. ICE below critical mass for supporting a profitable gas station network 2. Exhaust cars become outlawed in public places like school car pool lanes, work places and so on (smoking analogy). It's easy to see how ICE market then collapses. The perfect storm is building.

When you say close to a tipping point, how close do you really think we are? There are way over 1 billion vehicles on the road globally and EV’s are not even a rounding error in terms of numbers. The most optimistic projections suggest that EVs will be about 35% of all new car sales by 2040, which likely means they will be the majority of all cars on the road maybe by 2050.

I think gas stations are going to be around for a while. OK this will differ by country but given the political climate in the US currently, I can’t see a swing against oil happening any time soon.

I so wish I was wrong about this.

 

[RobStark]

I somewhat agree with your points except for the grid one. Anyone who can afford a Model 3 can also buy a few solar panels to charge from, should they be unhappy with their grid reliability.

IF you are going to rely on rooftop solar for day to day charging your Tesla and take grid power hear and there then you need a big house and at least two powerwalls. Because doing a setup just for your EV is stupid, your are going to get enough solar panels to power your home. How about people living in nice condos/apartments in African capitals or major cities across India?

That significantly increases cost. From global middle class to upper class.

Then how about charging away from home?

A nationwide charging network with reliable grid is really necessary to have a BEV as your one and only car for most people.

Buying an entry level luxury priced car and accepting you can only drive comfortably within a 100 mile radius of your house is a tough pill to swallow.

 

[electracity]

The tipping point of steam locomotives came long before diesel locomotives had significant market share. I'm sure people at that time who understood internal combustion recognized that tipping point. Peak steam locamotive were some fabulous products, but they fundamentally didn't matter.

The tipping point for solar 3-4 years ago was clear for just about everyone who follows that technology.

The most noise from the oldschool seems to be generated around the tipping point. The theatrics around the shorts victimizing Tesla is going to seem pretty silly in a year or two.

 

[tander]

lol @ 10m or more guy


this place is awesome

I'm not that guy (3-4m sounds more plausible to me), 10m sounds pretty crazy, but about 100 years ago when the world population was about 1/3 of today, Ford was selling 1-2 million model t's. So 10m with modern day population might be possible. But then again some are projecting a huge decline in car ownership with autonomous driving. Would be interesting to see Musk's vote on this.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

The most optimistic projections suggest that EVs will be about 35% of all new car sales by 2040

I so wish I was wrong about this.

I have good news! The most optimistic projection is that EVs will be 95% of new cars sold by 2030. That’s from Stanford economist Tony Seba. BNEF projects 55% by 2030. And the most optimistic oil company, Norway’s Statoil, projects 40% by 2040.

Testing Tony Seba’s EV Predictions 13 (What Makes Us Buy a Car?)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I have good news! The most optimistic projection is that EVs will be 95% of new cars sold by 2030. That’s from Stanford economist Tony Seba. BNEF projects 55% by 2030. And the most optimistic oil company, Norway’s Statoil, projects 40% by 2040.

Testing Tony Seba’s EV Predictions 13 (What Makes Us Buy a Car?)

Yes, and let’s also note that these projections get revised upward each year. 50% by 2025 and 100% by 2030 seems about right for now.

No other company even plans to have a 50+ GWh Gigafactory by 2025, so who will build and sell 50m EVs by 2025?

 

[electracity]

Tony Seba is not a "Stanford Economist". He has lectured at the Standford non credit school where you can also go to improve your vacation photography.

Faculty | Economics

Charlatan - Wikipedia

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Tony Seba is not a "Stanford Economist". He has lectured at the Standford non credit school where you can also go to improve your vacation photography.

Faculty | Economics

Charlatan - Wikipedia

My bad. I saw him listed as a Stanford economist in multiple articles from sources, and assumed they were correct.

It looks like he should be properly described as having an MBA from Stanford, a BS in Computer Science and Engineering from MIT, a strong track record projecting solar and lithium-ion batteries, and who has lectured for Stanford’s Continuing Studies program.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

In a few months we’ve gone from a 4-500k reservation list, say 200k in the US, to a 1-3 month custom order wait for a car. That feels like a pretty normal wait for a custom order car.

The cheapest car you can order is what, 49k or 39k after savings and tax credits.

The tax credits are going so not to far into the distance the target entry point of 35k will be maybe 33k after savings.

Are people really holding out for the 35k car and risk losing out in the tax credit v buying a more expensive and better car and getting half the extra refunded via tax credits or have I misunderstood how they’re working?

If my logic is right, the conversation rate of reservations to sales is slower than I expected and the US market may only be 10k a month long term, which is still double cars like the bmw 3 series, but 120k units in the US. World wide that might be 250-400k units per year. Still great but there is a limit to the market.

It doesn’t matter how fast you make cars you need buyers and personally I’d have thought with all the reservations you shouldn’t be able to buy one today and take delivery in a month or so if they were all converting.

 

[MXWing]

In a few months we’ve gone from a 4-500k reservation list, say 200k in the US, to a 1-3 month custom order wait for a car. That feels like a pretty normal wait for a custom order car.

The cheapest car you can order is what, 49k or 39k after savings and tax credits.

The tax credits are going so not to far into the distance the target entry point of 35k will be maybe 33k after savings.

Are people really holding out for the 35k car and risk losing out in the tax credit v buying a more expensive and better car and getting half the extra refunded via tax credits or have I misunderstood how they’re working?

If my logic is right, the conversation rate of reservations to sales is slower than I expected and the US market may only be 10k a month long term, which is still double cars like the bmw 3 series, but 120k units in the US. World wide that might be 250-400k units per year. Still great but there is a limit to the market.

It doesn’t matter how fast you make cars you need buyers and personally I’d have thought with all the reservations you shouldn’t be able to buy one today and take delivery in a month or so if they were all converting.

I still feel Tesla is optimistic on those delivery time lines. I confirmed a car that had July-August.

I know July had 0 chance. It will take a lot of time to chew through P and PAWD.

As more PAWDs and Model 3's are on the road period, interest will rise pushing back that 35K queue further back..