Elon talking about a million mile power train is like Elon talking about Autopilot... or the Model X... or basically anything. Very little that comes out of his mouth is actually true at the time he says it. Elon uttering the phrase "million mile power train" made me snort my tea. I'd love for it to be true, but he's more accurate about the threat of AI than anything he says about the Tesla power train.
For Tesla to be exploring a "million mile power train" tells me that they are very well aware of the fact that they have a big problem on their hands with the drive units. Four distinct problems in the drive units that keeps recurring even with remanufactured units - drone above 65 MPH, clunking noise, milling noise, and high-pitched electrical buzz under 25 MPH. Any drive unit can develop any of these issues and in any combination. Tesla has been saying for two years now - since my first DU replacement in 2013 - that they are rolling out fixes. Really? How long does that take, because I've been hearing that story for two years now.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Tesla has no idea how to fix these issues. If they did, the remanufactured units would not exhibit these same problems - some within minutes of being installed and driven off the lot. The replacement DUs are obviously not being tested for these issues and the remanufacturing process does not roll any fixes into these products. In my opinion, anyone getting a DU replacement should insist on a brand new unit from the factory. That's what I received in February and so far it has been the best of the bunch.
This guy right here, again.
I'd like to add that I don't think anyone at Tesla, Elon included is being intentionally deceptive when they make these statements. I'm sure in a test environment somewhere, there is a drive-train going on 500k miles and beyond. And auto-pilot / drive assistance is another example. I'm sure back in November, their software was 90% done and it looked like a solid deal. But even Elon admitted recently that the cameras were having trouble with reading lines on the road. And these are the same types of lines on the road that they were having trouble reading 9 months ago. It's a game between keeping people/media/investors engaged and producing a quality product. Trust me when I say your ownership will be a lot happier if you just accept things as fact when they happen, instead of when they are announced.
That being said, the real world experience for owners is that around a magic 20k mile marker, something in the drive-unit is having issues. I had only narrowed it down to three issues as in my reading, I lumped together the milling noise and the drone above 65mph. But I will say the high-pitched buzz sounded a lot like a milling sound as it got progressively worse.
Another viewpoint to look at is if the above symptoms really do lead to catastrophic drive-unit failure. If not, then one could argue that if the symptoms are only aesthetic (still not acceptable), then a drive-train could make it to 500k miles, or 1 million miles, albeit noisily. But I doubt that's the case since the symptoms are a sign something in the drive-unit is undergoing a change from in-spec to out of spec.
The electrolysis bearing issue might be addressed by really expensive ceramic bearings, however maybe it is just more cost-effective to rebuild every 20-30k. I don't know. But there is a non-monetary cost to those rebuilds in the form of inconvenience to the owner that should be accounted for as well. Then imagine if it got out to the media that Model S requires a rebuild of the drive-unit every 30k? Or even if there was a suspicion that was the case. I mean, there goes your appearance of reliability in a superior drive-train and along with it, your stock price. It's no wonder they say they've found a fix.
I don't know what the solution is, but I agree we should allow for the possibility it hasn't been found yet; despite claims to the contrary over 2 years. The proof is in the pudding, and some owners are on drive-train number 4. You also have to realize that just because a new drive-unit comes out, doesn't mean the old stock gets thrown away. I think that is why we've seen early P85D's with failures. Tesla has to put them in something and it's easier to do a DU swap later than it is to write-off the loss of a part or rebuild it before it's even installed. They know we as owners will put up with it, so they do it.
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My car's developing the same problem around 20K miles. I'm going to wait until it gets worse, by which time hopefully they'll have a proper fix for it. It sounds like they're slowly narrowing in on the causes.
As a stockholder: Yep, it is going to cost a large portion of the warranty reserve. But sincle they seem to be able to rebuild them, it will probably be manageable, though that's a *lot* of drivetrain repairs.
Curious, as a stock-holder, 1 question / 2 parts.
1a. Do you observe / notice how Tesla allows these types of problems (leaking sunroof is another one) to leave the factory knowing that they will create issues down the road?
1b. Do you think this is right to continue to do so knowing that it saves them money in the short-term because they are spending owners goodwill in the long term? In other-words, spending owner's goodwill does not show up on any accounting figures so they are free to spend it until it runs out. Or should they introduce delays into production to address these issues (if possible) knowing it will affect the stock negatively now, but possibly save owners' time/effort and save corporate face later on down the road?
