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Major 2021 Model X refresh pending [Update: Unveiled January 27, 2021]

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To be honest, I don't know, Tesla has a lot of money now but I don't see them competing against Porshe, MB, etc.. in the luxury segment.
The all-electric Cayenne is coming soon, it will definitely eat away X sells. The Taycan is already eating model S sells ( i know I am one of them)
Audi, MB, BMW are all knocking on Tesla's door. I guess we will have to wait and see how it will play out.

Yup. Elon has said the only reason the S and X are still in production is sentimental reasons. I think Elon wants to keep the bragging rights of having an electric car with highest performance numbers so the S Performance is getting some attention, but it may languish once the new Roadster is out.

If they keep the S and X, I think the next major revision (body redesign) will be to make them into some modification of the 3/Y platform. That is the best way to keep them in production. Right now the S and X have a lot of the same look as the 3/Y and they share some systems like Autopilot, but there are very few shared parts across platforms, which makes the S/X much more expensive to make.

Tesla is tinkering with simplifying the 3/Y platform right now, mostly focusing on Y changes, but the 3 will be updated to get most of the Y changes once they are finalized and in production. After that they may start looking at an all new S that is built on a modified 3/Y platform. The X is going to be more difficult to update if they want to keep the falcon wing doors. If they lose the doors and go with something more standard, then the all new X could be a stretched and possibly widened Y.

They can give the S and X better trim than the 3/Y to distinguish them further, but the 4 cars would share a lot of parts making the S/X far cheaper to make.

I know people talk about Tesla needing a halo car, but I disagree. Car companies make halo cars to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack. Hyundai is a McCar without Genesis. And even with Genesis it's still a pretty generic car company. The Big 3 American car companies have made some kind of sports cars to draw attention to their engineering and design and get people in the door.

But Tesla doesn't need a halo car to get attention. The public today pays more attention to the 3/Y and upcoming vehicles like the Cybertruck than they pay to the Model S/X. The news of the Plaid S got some attention this year, but the standard S/X is old news to the car industry and the public.

The S/X has a tiny following among people who really want super high performance. An even smaller number of people drag race their Performance cars. But the bulk of S/X sales are standard cars. The number sold have been down since the Model 3 came out because the Model 3 is a better size for a lot of people, it's cheaper, and it's at least 80% of a Model S. The Model Y is a similar Model X killer.

I like the Model S better than the Model 3 and I'm glad I have it. But if the Model 3 were available when I bought my S, I would have bought a 3 instead, even though it's not as nice. If I had to replace my Model S today, I would get a Y. I hate the center screen layout, but it's more car for the money.
 
Yup. Elon has said the only reason the S and X are still in production is sentimental reasons. I think Elon wants to keep the bragging rights of having an electric car with highest performance numbers so the S Performance is getting some attention, but it may languish once the new Roadster is out.

If they keep the S and X, I think the next major revision (body redesign) will be to make them into some modification of the 3/Y platform. That is the best way to keep them in production. Right now the S and X have a lot of the same look as the 3/Y and they share some systems like Autopilot, but there are very few shared parts across platforms, which makes the S/X much more expensive to make.

Tesla is tinkering with simplifying the 3/Y platform right now, mostly focusing on Y changes, but the 3 will be updated to get most of the Y changes once they are finalized and in production. After that they may start looking at an all new S that is built on a modified 3/Y platform. The X is going to be more difficult to update if they want to keep the falcon wing doors. If they lose the doors and go with something more standard, then the all new X could be a stretched and possibly widened Y.

They can give the S and X better trim than the 3/Y to distinguish them further, but the 4 cars would share a lot of parts making the S/X far cheaper to make.

I know people talk about Tesla needing a halo car, but I disagree. Car companies make halo cars to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack. Hyundai is a McCar without Genesis. And even with Genesis it's still a pretty generic car company. The Big 3 American car companies have made some kind of sports cars to draw attention to their engineering and design and get people in the door.

But Tesla doesn't need a halo car to get attention. The public today pays more attention to the 3/Y and upcoming vehicles like the Cybertruck than they pay to the Model S/X. The news of the Plaid S got some attention this year, but the standard S/X is old news to the car industry and the public.

The S/X has a tiny following among people who really want super high performance. An even smaller number of people drag race their Performance cars. But the bulk of S/X sales are standard cars. The number sold have been down since the Model 3 came out because the Model 3 is a better size for a lot of people, it's cheaper, and it's at least 80% of a Model S. The Model Y is a similar Model X killer.

I like the Model S better than the Model 3 and I'm glad I have it. But if the Model 3 were available when I bought my S, I would have bought a 3 instead, even though it's not as nice. If I had to replace my Model S today, I would get a Y. I hate the center screen layout, but it's more car for the money.

This is a perfect analysis: our perspectives are completely biased by when we got into Tesla and what models we have experienced. I am driving 20/21 X&Y and I dont see competition for either vehicle.

Similarly spec'd vehicles from MB or BMW cost tens of thousands more. Their coming electric variants will be 5-10 years behind Tesla, technologically, when they arrive.

The X is old and needs updating...but not because of competition (there isn't any). It needs updating because our expectations are much higher, thanks to Elon & Co.
 
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The X is old and needs updating...but not because of competition (there isn't any). It needs updating because our expectations are much higher, thanks to Elon & Co.

Bingo. There is no competition. What other 3-row EVs are there?

We've never been in the "high end lux" market... our last car was an Enclave. 3 rows were a must-have.

After our deer run-in, I couldn't bring myself to buy another gas engine, so made the decision to go with the X. Honestly - my wife would've been perfectly happy with an EV Enclave.. but it doesn't exist.

The X cost more than the Enclave, but not by a ridiculous amount (heck, the Enclave was over $60k) ... and once you factor in the gas savings, maintenance savings and the 0% EV sales & luxury tax in NJ ... it's really not much more. And comparing the two vehicles is like comparing Apollo and Crew Dragon. Both'll get you there but they're wildly different beasts.
 
Yup. Elon has said the only reason the S and X are still in production is sentimental reasons. I think Elon wants to keep the bragging rights of having an electric car with highest performance numbers so the S Performance is getting some attention, but it may languish once the new Roadster is out.

I think it is a separate class of bragging rights to have the fastest 7-seater family sedan sleeper which does not cost like a supercar but is fastesr than most supercars. It just needs to withstand against other similar cars on a race track (such as Nürburgring). I very much welcome a Plaid performance version in which the power is available whenever you need it and for how long you need it.
 
Yup. Elon has said the only reason the S and X are still in production is sentimental reasons. I think Elon wants to keep the bragging rights of having an electric car with highest performance numbers so the S Performance is getting some attention, but it may languish once the new Roadster is out.

If they keep the S and X, I think the next major revision (body redesign) will be to make them into some modification of the 3/Y platform. That is the best way to keep them in production. Right now the S and X have a lot of the same look as the 3/Y and they share some systems like Autopilot, but there are very few shared parts across platforms, which makes the S/X much more expensive to make.

Tesla is tinkering with simplifying the 3/Y platform right now, mostly focusing on Y changes, but the 3 will be updated to get most of the Y changes once they are finalized and in production. After that they may start looking at an all new S that is built on a modified 3/Y platform. The X is going to be more difficult to update if they want to keep the falcon wing doors. If they lose the doors and go with something more standard, then the all new X could be a stretched and possibly widened Y.

They can give the S and X better trim than the 3/Y to distinguish them further, but the 4 cars would share a lot of parts making the S/X far cheaper to make.

I know people talk about Tesla needing a halo car, but I disagree. Car companies make halo cars to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack. Hyundai is a McCar without Genesis. And even with Genesis it's still a pretty generic car company. The Big 3 American car companies have made some kind of sports cars to draw attention to their engineering and design and get people in the door.

But Tesla doesn't need a halo car to get attention. The public today pays more attention to the 3/Y and upcoming vehicles like the Cybertruck than they pay to the Model S/X. The news of the Plaid S got some attention this year, but the standard S/X is old news to the car industry and the public.

The S/X has a tiny following among people who really want super high performance. An even smaller number of people drag race their Performance cars. But the bulk of S/X sales are standard cars. The number sold have been down since the Model 3 came out because the Model 3 is a better size for a lot of people, it's cheaper, and it's at least 80% of a Model S. The Model Y is a similar Model X killer.

I like the Model S better than the Model 3 and I'm glad I have it. But if the Model 3 were available when I bought my S, I would have bought a 3 instead, even though it's not as nice. If I had to replace my Model S today, I would get a Y. I hate the center screen layout, but it's more car for the money.

I don't think you'll find too many parts shared between the sedans and crossover vehicles and the cybertruck. it is not necessary that one shares components everywhere. Some cars can be different entirely if need be. there will always be a market for the S and for the x, never very big, but that doesn't really matter. As long as they're a profit center they pay for themselves so it doesn't matter if they make a ton of profit or not. As long as they help Tesla's overall goal, they'll keep making them.
 
Year 2021 battery go cheaper than before . Many car company will release car that break range anxiety .
Tesla can produce just 500,000 a year compare to market so tiny.
Not much people buy same car, if no S/X refresh maybe other company will take the cake.
 
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Wow, that must be quite a mirror if they have to shut down the production and pay workers to stay at home while they make adjustment to the mirror-installing-robot. Uhm.. ?
They are likely unrelated events. It is an 18 day shutdown over a holiday period on two lines with low demand. Odds are it is nothing more than maintenance on the production lines that has been put off for a while to increase production efficiency. I am hoping its more, but skeptical.
 
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They are likely unrelated events. It is an 18 day shutdown over a holiday period on two lines with low demand. Odds are it is nothing more than maintenance on the production lines that has been put off for a while to increase production efficiency. I am hoping its more, but skeptical.

We can agree to disagree :) 18 days of shutdown + X-days of training workers in the new redesigned production line = Refreshed S&X-models.
 
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Or there's a fire suppression line that needs to be torn out and replaced, or they need to trench a new set of electrical or plumbing under the line, or a major component manufacturer is finally out of inventory and needs to build up to keep the line running efficiently, or they need to work up new procedures for assembly of new interior parts, or whatever. The "real" reason to take a RIF could be almost anything, but if it's economical to take the RIF during maitnenance or upgrades, you'd be dumb not to do it. Most factories take several weeks every year on each line.

My bets are not worth posting here again, but if I had to bet:

X/S is getting a new dash and fascias, will hold the line on price, but will bring back an SR+-style model to chase market share down now that they can pretty comfortably hit 300 miles with an 82-kwh battery in the 3/Y it ought to be doable in the S as well if they bring back a 75 or 85.
 
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The all-electric Cayenne is coming soon, it will definitely eat away X sells.
Would be great if the Cayenne was a three row.
The Taycan is already eating model S sells ( i know I am one of them)
Not too many people are going to cross shop a 200 mile range car versus a 400 mile range car.
Audi, MB, BMW are all knocking on Tesla's door. I guess we will have to wait and see how it will play out.
Competition is great. Hopefully these guys will have a Level 3 offering to compete with FSD (faulty student driver).
 
We can agree to disagree :) 18 days of shutdown + X-days of training workers in the new redesigned production line = Refreshed S&X-models.
There has been zero mention of any workers needing new training. Again people are reading way too much into this. Every single auto manufacturer does an annual 1-2 week shutdown every single year simply for maintenance, Ford shuts down all 9 plants every summer. This is nothing abnormal or indicative of a major refresh. Retools for a full production line refresh are typically 4-5 weeks. Tesla has been know to put profits before worker safety, so they have bucked the trend and refused to shut down for maintenance, but that can only last for so long until your hand is forced.
 
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Not too many people are going to cross shop a 200 mile range car versus a 400 mile range car with extensive charging.
Since Model S sales are down and Taycan has become Porsche’s best selling car line, it’s safe to say there are plenty of people cross shopping the cars. Also the two cars are constantly compared to each other. When anyone considers a Taycan, the Model S is pretty much the only car to compare it against, especially since the Turbo S is the only EV to ever beat a Model S Performance in a drag race.
 
There has been zero mention of any workers needing new training. Again people are reading way too much into this. Every single auto manufacturer does an annual 1-2 week shutdown every single year simply for maintenance, Ford shuts down all 9 plants every summer. This is nothing abnormal or indicative of a major refresh. Retools for a full production line refresh are typically 4-5 weeks. Tesla has been know to put profits before worker safety, so they have bucked the trend and refused to shut down for maintenance, but that can only last for so long until your hand is forced.

Time will show :) Happy new year!
 
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