Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[RDoc]

Whatever timeline is given, at least double or triple it. That way you won’t be disappointed when it doesn’t arrive on time.

And add 7-10 years.

 

[kkd26]

Tesla can certainly do this:

1. Develop Tesla network app for ride hailing.
2. Get regulatory approval to offer autonomous ride hailing in certain cities( SF, Austin, etc ) or start with small suburb towns
3. Use existing excess production vehicles for taxi service ( In future, tesla owners can participate in this )
4. Willing customer can order a ride and nearby taxi can go to the customer autonomously.
5. Once customer is in the vehicle, he/she is responsible for supervision until their destination. (offer this service for half the cost of uber/waymo or even for free initially )
6. Geo fence the area and test it thoroughly in simulation and real world testing with test drivers before opening for new areas.
7. Get the data and improve on processes, we can have complete autonomous robotaxi one day.

 

[ThomasD]

They will announce it in August but when will they actually be testing on public roads with no one at the wheel?

 

[ThomasD]

Customer in the car has an issue with the car. Customer calls Tesla gets a message to call during Business Hours.

 

[larns576]

October 2016 - "All Teslas are Level 5 (robotaxi) capable, pending a software download."
April 2019 - "One million robotaxis on the road by 2020."
April 2024 - "Robotaxi unveil 8/8"

Aug 2024 - FSD has been out of beta for 4 months now. Robotaxi in 2025.

 

[ThomasD]

How many companies are operating AVs without steering wheels or Brake and Throttle Pedals transporting passengers right now?

 

[alsetyledom280]

I feel that Tesla fsd/ai team learned 8/8 date as rest of us.

When JFK told all of us then we will need to land on moon in 8 years. He probably didn't run it with nasa first either.

So a lot of hard work and huge expectations ahead..

 

[boonedocks]

Was going to give a year and opted for just “Not Going To Happen”

 

[JulienW]

Everyone keep in mind that 8/8 is at MOST an announcement/prototype reveal and remember what Elon says about prototypes (which is True). Tesla is still perfecting the "unboxed" assembly process and has yet to even start ordering equipment much less start building a production line. IF and big IF and all goes swimmingly start of production would take at least a year and volume production 18 months away.

 

[petercc9]

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

Considering v12 FSD has been ironed out using footage from Model 3s and Model Ys (Model S users complaining about close curbs) it would seem unlikely Tesla would initiate its robotaxi service with an unproven design that maybe does not have the same dimensions as the training data.

I bet they use old Model 3s and Model Ys first and eventually switch to the Model 2.
They will probably leave the steering wheels in too.

 

[DanCar]

1. FSD hardware 5 and more external camera(s), but they won't announce that on 8/8.
2. Additional internal camera(s).
3. Compact size. Honda civic hatchback 1983 / fiat 500.
4. Comes in two models: Taller / SUV ish, and sportier lower height. Although they just may announce one of the models on 8/8.
5. Smaller steering wheel and or removable.
6. Grok mini built in support. Chat with your car / robotaxi all day. How many dad jokes do you want to hear?

Less likely:

1. Would be cool if there was a center joystick option.
2. Sliding doors? Automatic doors makes robotaxi easier.

 

[petercc9]

Sliding doors? Automatic doors makes robotaxi easier.

I think this is simply a basic requirement due to idiot passengers not closing the doors properly when they get out.
Sliding doors the easiest to control. Doors that open up or out more likely to be damaged.

hmm this makes me think the Model 3 or Y not possible to use.

 

[nkresho]

limiting it to certain routes that have been thoroughly tested in a limited number of cities may be a start and a bit more realistic.

Construction, bad weather, and the driver's inputs make FSD a whole different animal.

I think the robotaxi can be released in a controlled manner and has the potential to be hugely successful.

On the other hand, based on my limited experience with FSD and the NHTSA stops, it's gonna be super annoying to drivers to be on the road with them for the first few months or years.

 

[mborkow]

Whatever it is, it doesn’t currently exist…this is pure spectacle and salesmanship. Anyone who has tested out the recent FSD supervised knows he doesn’t have a self-driving car up his sleeve.

 

[lencap]

Forgetting for a moment what the RoboTaxi may look like, I wonder about liability. If Tesla owns all the taxis, and there is no human intervention, why would anyone want to take on that liability? If they make them available for retail purchase, how will the owner get the needed insurance?

And if they run "24/7", or attempt to, how will they recharge without someone plugging them in? I could go on and on with obvious issues, but despite FSD's 12.3.3 ability to provide a more "human like" drive, it's still rated Level 2 (out of 5) on the Automated Driving Scale. That's a long way from full self drive, and until FSD progresses further I fail to see why anyone would take the obvious risks of ownership and operation.

Still, I'm impressed with the AI training that took FSD 12 to an order of magnitude better than FSD 11. Seems as if the AI learning model has shown the "we need radar/lidar/etc" crowd that AI does have significant potential, and I applaud Elon for ignoring the doom sayers and moving ahead. It may be that AI can generate faster iterations of usable FSD upgrades, a benefit for everyone.

We'll see what the future holds, but deciding to postpone the Model 2, roll out a free month trial of 12.3.3 FSD, refocus on getting higher production for the Semi, and finally making the Roadster a real product all seem to be steps in the right direction.

From a business perspective, why build a new Model 2 for $25-30K, with maybe a 20% margin, when you can sell FSD for $12,000 with an incremental cost measures in pennies? I'd expect deep cuts in FSD software prices in a few years (maybe less), once the economics of the FSD profit margins overcome the obvious anger buyers who paid $12K will have if the price is cut in half. In the meantime, for $200/month I, for one, will at least subscribe whenever I plan a long road trip. For $7/day, why not?

 

[zroger73]

Being new to Tesla one year ago with my first EV purchase, I quickly realized not to get my hopes up about what is promised.

After a 5-month experience with FSD 11.4.x last year, I was convinced it would be years, if not decades, before full self-driving was a reality.

Then, I tried FSD 12.3.2.1 and 12.3.3 this past week.

I have lost count of the number of drives without disengagements and many without any interventions at all. I have never been more confident and optimistic that full self-driving might actually be here sooner than I thought.

It still needs lots of work, but the improvement over 11.4.x is dramatic - I don't know if I ever had a drive where I didn't have to disengage to rarely having to disengage.

 

[karlos22]

I’m all for robotaxis but the auto wipers on my model 3 don’t even work properly after how many years now?

 

[jabloomf1230]

The Cybertaxi will initially launch in fashion that is similar to the way that the Semi was launched. It will be manually assembled in small quantities and the first wave of production will be sent into service on the Vegas loop. It will seat four adults + luggage. It will have the ability like Waymo to have a "rescue mode" controlled from a remote location. This should happen in 2026. A larger bus-like version seating more passengers will debut later.

 

[cwerdna]

October 2016 - "All Teslas are Level 5 (robotaxi) capable, pending a software download."
April 2019 - "One million robotaxis on the road by 2020."
April 2024 - "Robotaxi unveil 8/8"

On these notes, there are links to these claims from Elon/Tesla regarding robotaxis, self-driving, autonomy, etc.:
Elon Musk Today - nope, still hasn't happened
Elon Musk Today - ditto
Elon Musk Today - LOL
Elon Musk Today - LOL. Was the April 2019 robotaxi claim you mentioned.

 

[DarkandStormy]