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If Trump wins re-election, the future of the constitution is at risk. There may not be an election in 2024, or if there is, it's a dictatorship election. For the first time in American history this is a realistic scenario. There are still a lot of people who believe it can't happen here, but it can.
Biden is going to have to choose a younger VP. That's a given. And with the Democratic party trending left it will have to be someone acceptable to the left.
I've been predicting for over a decade that the Republican party will rip itself apart at some point. The reason Trump did get the nomination was because the party has become so weak an insurgent candidate could seize control. Trump is a symptom of the cancer eating the party from within.
The Republicans coalition is weakening because of demographic shifts in this country. Nixon's Southern Strategy, appealing to white voters who had at least some prejudice worked for about 40 years because there were enough whites with prejudice combined with some others who went along to get Republicans elected. But the white vote declines 1/2% a year and has been since the 1970s. That makes the electorate 2% less white every presidential election.
Common wisdom was 2012 was the last time the Republicans could win appealing only to white voters because whites hit 47% of the electorate and it was expected to be 45% in 2016. Trump got more whites out to vote than expected and kept the white vote to 47% and won in a squeaker. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz ran in 2016 thinking that was the year for a minority Republican to break out, but their campaigns failed.
The 2018 midterms reverted to trend with the turnout being 2% less than 2014. That indicates 2020 will probably be 4% less white than 2012 and 2016. The white vote is also significantly older than the non-white vote which means when the white conservatives lose power, they won't be coming back. Some other conservative movement will take their place, but white dominance will be in terminal decline in American politics.
The Republicans have been backing Trump's efforts to break the constitution because they see it as their only gambit to retain power long term. Demographically they are screwed otherwise.
The failure of Trump's presidency could trigger some sweeping changes to this country. I'm getting the feeling something fundamental is shifting in this country. It hasn't reached the deep into the rural areas yet, but that is coming. I suspect a lot of Republicans aren't taking the COVID-19 outbreak seriously because it's most prominent in some blue states right now. But it's loose in the general population and going everywhere.
COVID-19 hits older people and people with other health conditions hardest. The people with the weakest health in this country are urban poor and a large percentage of the rural population. There was a lot of talk about people's life expectancy being determined by their zip code a few years ago. It's only a matter of time before it hits the rural areas and it will probably hit those areas hard. It will probably disproportionately hit the Fox News audience too because the average age of their viewers is something like 67.
A stark reminder of what a botched effort looks like is visible from space in Iran today. The Washington Post published satellite photos of slit trenches being dug on the edge of a known cemetery south of Tehran. The US has a better healthcare system than Iran, but it could be overwhelmed and a lot of people who might have been saved could die. Additionally quite a few Fox News viewers will probably get seriously ill but survive this. Those people might wake up to the massive Republican incompetence. This is quickly turning into Trump's Katrina.
I suspect Fox News' influence is going to be weaker by next year. It's possible the Democrats may lose seats in the 2022 midterms, but if the Democrats take back the Senate in 2020, the Republicans are going to have a very tough time taking the Senate in 2022. The Senate map for the GOP looks a lot like 2020 with the GOP defending over 20 seats and the Democrats only defending 10 or 12, most in blue states. With suburban Millennial women now voting and voting Democratic, the Republicans are going to struggle to pick up many suburban districts.
Demographically the ability of the Republicans to mount comebacks like 2010 weaken every year, but they might have some success.
I've also pointed out that everything points to the end of a party system in the US. The political landscape changes dramatically when party systems change. The Democrats reeled for 10 years after Reagan came into power. The timing is right for a change, we have a weak president in his first term, and the party that has been weaker for the last 40 years is now coming up with new ideas to carry us into the future while the in party only has retreads of Reagan's ideas. When a party system changes, the party losing the narrative usually reels for a while as the bulk of the population ignores them as irrelevant fossils of a dead era.
I don't see Biden sweeping in these changes, but if he steps down and his VP takes over, his VP could become the instrument of change the country needs.
Biden is going to have to choose a younger VP. That's a given. And with the Democratic party trending left it will have to be someone acceptable to the left.
I've been predicting for over a decade that the Republican party will rip itself apart at some point. The reason Trump did get the nomination was because the party has become so weak an insurgent candidate could seize control. Trump is a symptom of the cancer eating the party from within.
The Republicans coalition is weakening because of demographic shifts in this country. Nixon's Southern Strategy, appealing to white voters who had at least some prejudice worked for about 40 years because there were enough whites with prejudice combined with some others who went along to get Republicans elected. But the white vote declines 1/2% a year and has been since the 1970s. That makes the electorate 2% less white every presidential election.
Common wisdom was 2012 was the last time the Republicans could win appealing only to white voters because whites hit 47% of the electorate and it was expected to be 45% in 2016. Trump got more whites out to vote than expected and kept the white vote to 47% and won in a squeaker. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz ran in 2016 thinking that was the year for a minority Republican to break out, but their campaigns failed.
The 2018 midterms reverted to trend with the turnout being 2% less than 2014. That indicates 2020 will probably be 4% less white than 2012 and 2016. The white vote is also significantly older than the non-white vote which means when the white conservatives lose power, they won't be coming back. Some other conservative movement will take their place, but white dominance will be in terminal decline in American politics.
The Republicans have been backing Trump's efforts to break the constitution because they see it as their only gambit to retain power long term. Demographically they are screwed otherwise.
The failure of Trump's presidency could trigger some sweeping changes to this country. I'm getting the feeling something fundamental is shifting in this country. It hasn't reached the deep into the rural areas yet, but that is coming. I suspect a lot of Republicans aren't taking the COVID-19 outbreak seriously because it's most prominent in some blue states right now. But it's loose in the general population and going everywhere.
COVID-19 hits older people and people with other health conditions hardest. The people with the weakest health in this country are urban poor and a large percentage of the rural population. There was a lot of talk about people's life expectancy being determined by their zip code a few years ago. It's only a matter of time before it hits the rural areas and it will probably hit those areas hard. It will probably disproportionately hit the Fox News audience too because the average age of their viewers is something like 67.
A stark reminder of what a botched effort looks like is visible from space in Iran today. The Washington Post published satellite photos of slit trenches being dug on the edge of a known cemetery south of Tehran. The US has a better healthcare system than Iran, but it could be overwhelmed and a lot of people who might have been saved could die. Additionally quite a few Fox News viewers will probably get seriously ill but survive this. Those people might wake up to the massive Republican incompetence. This is quickly turning into Trump's Katrina.
I suspect Fox News' influence is going to be weaker by next year. It's possible the Democrats may lose seats in the 2022 midterms, but if the Democrats take back the Senate in 2020, the Republicans are going to have a very tough time taking the Senate in 2022. The Senate map for the GOP looks a lot like 2020 with the GOP defending over 20 seats and the Democrats only defending 10 or 12, most in blue states. With suburban Millennial women now voting and voting Democratic, the Republicans are going to struggle to pick up many suburban districts.
Demographically the ability of the Republicans to mount comebacks like 2010 weaken every year, but they might have some success.
I've also pointed out that everything points to the end of a party system in the US. The political landscape changes dramatically when party systems change. The Democrats reeled for 10 years after Reagan came into power. The timing is right for a change, we have a weak president in his first term, and the party that has been weaker for the last 40 years is now coming up with new ideas to carry us into the future while the in party only has retreads of Reagan's ideas. When a party system changes, the party losing the narrative usually reels for a while as the bulk of the population ignores them as irrelevant fossils of a dead era.
I don't see Biden sweeping in these changes, but if he steps down and his VP takes over, his VP could become the instrument of change the country needs.
In a primary fight, there are always some people whose candidate loses the nomination who will not vote for the nominee. That's a given.
But a primary is about picking a lane and the Democratic voters are making it clear they want Joe Biden.
Everyone lest of Atilla the Hun feels angst this election. They know the nominee needs to be electable and there is loads of doubt. I said a few months ago I could list upsides and downsides to every Democratic candidate. They all have flaws. There is no perfect candidate this year. For those of us who want Trump out of there, we need to vote Democratic this year regardless of the nominee.
Some people will take a principled stand and refuse to vote for Biden. That's a given. I suspect it's going to be vastly smaller than the people who refused to vote for Hillary in 2016. This time Democrats have a big load of guilt on their side as well as a candidate while not perfect, is more likeable. I personally know several people (all men) who hated Hillary so much they could not bring themselves to vote for her. I wasn't thrilled with her personally, but held my nose and voted for her. When I filled in the box on my ballot I had a bit of a feeling of disbelief that I was voting for her, but the alternative was much worse.
But a primary is about picking a lane and the Democratic voters are making it clear they want Joe Biden.
Everyone lest of Atilla the Hun feels angst this election. They know the nominee needs to be electable and there is loads of doubt. I said a few months ago I could list upsides and downsides to every Democratic candidate. They all have flaws. There is no perfect candidate this year. For those of us who want Trump out of there, we need to vote Democratic this year regardless of the nominee.
Some people will take a principled stand and refuse to vote for Biden. That's a given. I suspect it's going to be vastly smaller than the people who refused to vote for Hillary in 2016. This time Democrats have a big load of guilt on their side as well as a candidate while not perfect, is more likeable. I personally know several people (all men) who hated Hillary so much they could not bring themselves to vote for her. I wasn't thrilled with her personally, but held my nose and voted for her. When I filled in the box on my ballot I had a bit of a feeling of disbelief that I was voting for her, but the alternative was much worse.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Replace "want" with "have been manipulated to pick". Biden was fading and Sanders was gaining until the word came down and the corporate Dems circled the wagons around Biden, helped by the media smear campaign against Sanders.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Yeah, drama much? What a load . . .
MikeQ
Member
Wouldn't the opposite be true? America was founded on the idea of personal freedom. Expansion of the federal government generally leads to less personal freedom and less control by the states.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Ironically, Democrats are the ones that generally argue for expansion of the federal government and curtailment of personal freedoms.
bhtooefr
Active Member
Because the Biden administration won't seriously attempt to fix the structural problems within the US, and a significant minority that needs an answer to those problems will be suckered into fascist policy as the answer to those problems. (And, I'm proposing that that's why the political pendulum swings - people choosing "the other answer" because the current answer didn't work, or in the Bitecofer model, being demoralized by their party of preference letting them down and staying home, and the other party's voters being energized.)
I point to the Obama/Trump swing voter as evidence of this phenomenon - Obama ran on a platform of radical change in 2008, which didn't come to fruition. Then, Trump ran on a different platform of radical change in 2016 - I'd argue that he actually has done this, unlike Obama, but he instead made things rapidly worse instead of maintaining the status quo of a slow decline. Biden may well win, but only as - as wdolson likes to put it - a referendum on Trump, not on his own merits... which will just lead to people looking for change again.
(I will also note that the 2010 backlash against Obama had other elements to it than just backlash against his policies - you could even argue that Obama was actually trying still in 2010. Quite a lot of that one was racism. But, by 2016, backlash against Obama's ineffectiveness contributed, I'd argue.)
MikeQ
Member
Leave it CA to give you want you want ... anyone other than biden!
Sanders is back in the running.
Lol. Picked up 50 delegates. Now only behind by 154. He could be back in the running if there were 3 more California primaries still to come instead of Florida.
"according to a new Florida poll the former vice president has a staggering 44-point lead over his opponent. "
Yes,
If the trump succeeded. It would be a variation of a gall bladder disease diagnosis
“Steaming pile of flatulent fat fetid floating orange feces occupying the WH”
70ish though, not 40ish.
But it would be a “load”
It more seems like democrats want everyone to participate in government, everyone voting, and presently at least, Republicans want only voters whom will vote for them, $1 = 1 vote more or less.
That would put Republicans first and foremost at curtailing personal freedoms.
I’m sure others have a far better and more rigorous Explanations
Ok. So millions of voters pick someone over the candidate you favor and that proves they were all manipulated? A tragedy, all those millions of deluded fools imagining they have free will and decided themselves to vote for the candidate they prefer.
The political spectrum isn't a straight line. It's a circle with the most extreme right and left next to one another. Different motivations but joined by their common belief that the citizens they wish to govern can't really be trusted to decide for themselves.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Human nature is what it is. People like to attach themselves to "winners". When the party machine and the media tell people who that will be many follow along. We saw it happen in real time.
He already said it would be a woman. AOC is too young.
I'm guessing Kamala Harris or Stacey Abrams. Warren is also a possibility. Hillary could also worm her way into it.
Almost impossible for me not to Vote Dem....almost...but if Hillary was on ticket as vp....man.
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