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Market politics

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Lessmog, Feb 3, 2018.

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  1. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    There were many articles out there questioning his net worth before 2015.

    2005
    What's He Really Worth?

    2011
    A History of Donald Trump's Net Worth Publicity (1988-2011) - The Atlantic

    From 2000
    Mid-1990s: Banks Refuse to Lend to Trump, Citing "The Donald Risk" - The Moscow Project

    2011
    Rolling Snake Eyes: Trump's First Casino Partners Had Alleged Mob Ties | HuffPost

    2011
    Inside Donald Trump's Empire: Why He Didn't Run for President in 2012

    About the investigator who has been turning up dirt on Trump since the late 70s (he died just before the inauguration)
    The Muckraker Who Tormented Trump

    Most of the stories about Trump that came out before 2015 were more local stories. He was the butt of jokes around New York City for years before he did the Apprentice. New Yorkers considered it as ludicrous as Homer Simpson running for president.

    Once Trump came onto the national stage actually running for president, the entire country and the world wanted to understand who this guy was. So there were more reporters digging up more dirt on him.
     
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  2. gilscales

    gilscales Active Member

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    Ok everybody, move along, nothing to see here, no bias whatsoever here! HAHAHA!
     
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  3. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    What bias? And what's so funny? It's a well informed description of the subject.
     
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  4. Heart Land

    Heart Land Member

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    These are interesting. In particular, the two articles from 2011. I think there is something there. Specifically, he has hired some shady people. Most recently in the news is Michael Cohen. I do not think Trump is a saint. I think he was a shrewd businessman, but he did it within the parameters of the law. He could be unethical at times. I do not like this. But it still does not measure up to the salacious accusations of being a fraud or a conman.

    In regards to the stories of his net worth, these could be argued ad nauseum and no progress would be made. It is nearly impossible to price real estate accurately. How much is a winery worth or a golf course or the Trump brand? It can fluctuate greatly when there are market swings. I do not think there is anything there to deny that Trump was a very successful businessman. He had some ups and downs, like every entrepreneur has, but he always came back.

    I think my assessment holds up quite well. The salacious press and accusations occurred AFTER he ran for president. He could have bought an island and retired on it. Instead he threw himself into the snake pit of Washington. This was a significant sacrifice for his country. Remember, he paid for his primary run. Nobody else did this. He has donated all of his presidential salary. Who else has done this?
     
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  5. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    You're in deep denial, no point in further discussion with you.
     
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  6. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Well-Known Member

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    No, actually, the same discussions of Trump have been occurring for many years mostly at the vendor and banking levels. They know exactly what kind of person he is. It's only when he succeeded in getting onto the national political stage that the circle of people that were interested increased. It has taken some time, and it will likely take a bit more, for the true description of Trump to come out but it is slowly coming out. Very few people outside of Alaska had a clue who Sara Palin was before she stepped out onto the national stage.

    I can assure you that you can be an entrepreneur, be very successful and still never get remotely close to the legal line. The key is adding value. Do that and the world will beat a path to your door. Good people recognize and seek out competence in vendors.

    When did good people get to this point?

    "Specifically, he has hired some shady people."
    "I do not think Trump is a saint. I think he was a shrewd businessman, but he did it within the parameters of the law. He could be unethical at times. I do not like this. But it still does not measure up to the salacious accusations of being a fraud or a conman."

    How can someone that raw dogs a porn star shortly after his wife gave birth to their child make it into the acceptable for President camp with good, salt of the earth country loving mid-westerners? This is a hugely interesting subject for me; sad, but interesting.
     
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  7. Heart Land

    Heart Land Member

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    I agree it is time to end this discussion. If the trade deals do not work out and we head to a recession, then there is no denying that I was wrong. But if the trade deals fall into place and we get continued GDP growth greater than 3%, then you have to admit that he is better than what you have given him credit for.
     
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  8. skitown

    skitown Member

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    Because when you boil it down, most humans are far more tribal than even they can admit.
     
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  9. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    No, stumbling into a successful outcome on a single issue does not negate who he is or what he's done. Remember the broken clock...
     
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  10. BioSehnsucht

    BioSehnsucht Model 3 LR

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    Not to mention much of the current trade issues were caused by Trump... so "deals" are mostly a return to the former status quo. In some cases, might be a small improvement, in others, a worse situation (but better than the escalating tariff wars). Sometimes it might look like an improvement but actually be a bad thing in disguise (i.e. NAFTA 2.0's various requirements for automotive imports are tougher to avoid tariff, but rather than encouraging moving vehicle production to the US we're likely to see the added costs passed onto consumers and/or more US plants closed to make up for the still cheaper but less so foreign plants costs)
     
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  11. dmunjal

    dmunjal Member

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    I would rather Trump try and fail (stumbling along the way) to fix longstanding issues then not try at all. Issues he didn't create like trade, China, NK, immigration, the Fed, and many more. I am not a partisan but I've seen many Presidents and Senators refuse to address these issues because of big money interests. If Trump does nothing but open the door for future Presidents to solve these problems, he will have succeeded.

    This is just one example.

    Elon Musk Uses Twitter to Talk Tariffs, Cars, and China With Donald Trump

    Elon Musk on Twitter

    "We raised this with the prior administration and nothing happened. Just want a fair outcome, ideally where tariffs/rules are equally moderate. Nothing more. Hope this does not seem unreasonable."

    I think Tucker Carlson said it perfectly.

    "I think Trump's role is to begin the conversation about what actually matters. We were not having any conversation about immigration before Trump arrived in Washington. People were bothered about it in different places in the country. It's a huge country, but that was not a staple of political debate at all. Trump asked basic questions like' "Why don't our borders work?" “Why should we sign a trade agreement and let the other side cheat?” Or my favorite of all, "What's the point of NATO?" The point of NATO was to keep the Soviets from invading western Europe but they haven't existed in 27 years, so what is the point? These are obvious questions that no one could answer."

    Die Weltwoche | Weltwoche Online – www.weltwoche.ch: Tucker Carlson::«Trump is not capable» | Die Weltwoche, Ausgabe 49/2018
     
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  12. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    That's simply an untrue statement.
     
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  13. dmunjal

    dmunjal Member

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    Of course it's true. Conversations but never any resolution. The establishment on both sides prefers the status quo.

    Besides immigration issues at the border, who else has mentioned the H1-B abuses of tech workers before Trump?

    Trump administration cracks down H-1B visa abuse

    Trump administration cracks down H-1B visa abuse
     
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  14. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Well-Known Member

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    The recession was in 08. This bull ride has gone on too long already and, if history is any indication, will come to an end soon. This has nothing to do with Trump. Clinton was not a genius with the budget surpluses. Bush was not a schmuck for the 08 bubble burst. Obama was not a genius for turning it around. If there is any credit to be given it would be for Bush and Congress having the nerve to give Paulson a blank check and Paulson not enriching himself while doing his job.

    We are in the position we are in because of tens of years of bad hiring practices. The idea of performing poorly in your recruiting and incentivizing leading you to hire an incompetent pathological narcissist who cares nothing for anyone but himself as a solution simply defies any form of logic. The only thing that makes any sense is the political turd in the Washington punch bowl is getting ever larger. Let's stop slowly growing the turd ala warming the frog and go straight to a turd whose head can not even fit in the bowl ala boiling water for the frog. Maybe then people will wake up. I just hope it does not cost a few MM S. Koreans their lives in the process.
     
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  15. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29, M3P 80k

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    No, that logic doesn't follow either. There is enormous pressure from the whole world to recover from the stupid tariffs he has implemented, and if some smart people in China/Europe/Canadia find a way for him to do it while stroking his ego, it will happen, but it won't be thanks to him. (Also my last word on this subject.)
     
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  16. dmunjal

    dmunjal Member

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    The tariffs aren't causing the problems in the economy or stock market. Tariffs are measured in billions. The last ten years, we have feasted on a credit bubble due to QE and ZIRP. That is measured in the trillions and is deflating and will eventually pop.

    Just like 2008. Just like 2001.
     
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  17. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    The economy is in the process of turning south now. The trade war has hit the ag business very hard already. Many companies that require steel to make things in the US are hurting or have already gone out of business.

    Trump had to dig very, very deep into the economist community to find anyone who agreed with him. Peter Navarro is the economists' equivalent of a flat earther among Physicists.

    As for shady practices, Trump went way over the line and he's going to start paying for it. Mueller had made it pretty clear that Trump broke some pretty serious laws, he just can't charge him because he's the president.

    It's just human nature that any country that has any degree of desirableness next to one or more countries where life is much more difficult, there will be immigration from the less desirable to the desirable. Many people in the UK who voted for Brexit did so because Europeans from less well off European countries were immigrating to the UK. In the US many of the scut jobs like picking crops or cleaning are done by low skilled immigrant labor. In the UK a lot of that work is done by poor people from parts of the former British empire or from eastern Europe.

    The patterns are almost exactly the same for illegal drugs. When a country has any woes at all, a certain percentage are going to turn to illegal drugs to escape. And every country has woes because that's part of human existence. The measure is how big the problem is.

    When these drugs are freely available and the police look the other way, there is still an illegal drug trade, just nobody gets caught. When a country creates draconian laws to stop illegal drugs, it swells up the prisons, but does very little to stop the drugs coming in. As long as there is a demand, someone will figure out how to provide a supply, even if they are risking everything to do it.

    The patterns for immigration, especially illegal immigration are almost identical to the drug trade. Though the draw is getting to a country where the immigrant is safer and might be able to make more money than their home country where life is more dangerous and economically poor.

    In both cases the "cure" is to deal with the reasons the draw is happening in the first place. In the case of drugs, deal with treating users and figuring out why they are using. In the case of illegal immigration, help solve the problems in their home country as well as getting getting the native born to do the work the illegals do and the immigration problem decreases dramatically. Just like illegal drug use, you can never stop illegal immigration completely, but you can reduce it dramatically.

    Many news reports have pointed out that illegal immigration during the Obama administration dropped to a point where the net flow of immigrants across the Mexico border was negative. ie more people moving to Mexico than moving to the US. The reason is Mexico's economy has grown significantly and they have a growing middle class. Drug related violence between the cartels feeding the US drug market is still a big problem, but otherwise life in Mexico is a lot better than it was 20 years ago. As a result, US illegals are moving to Mexico.

    Most of the people Trump is trying to keep out today are Central Americans who have become displaced from their home country due to the violence created by the US bound drug business with no other economic outlet. In Mexico there are many legal ways to make a decent living now other than the drug trade, but not so in many Central American countries. Some of these Central Americans are settling in Mexico, but many are passing through Mexico to settle in the US.

    If the US ended the war on drugs, then made all the recreational drugs legal but heavily regulated (and taxed), the illegal drug trade in Central America would dry up and the gangs would starve for lack of income. That's what happened when prohibition ended in the US. The criminal gangs involved in the alcohol trade remained for a few years trying other lines of business, but eventually starved out.

    Politicians have avoided dealing with many of the world's problems because they are too complicated, but when someone comes along who thinks there is a simple solution and tries it, it usually just gets dramatically worse.

    A case in point was Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Bush I did not try regime change in 1991 because he recognized there was not good alternative who could hold the country together. Bush I and his advisors understood the consequences of all courses of action. Bill Clinton's people similarly understood there was no solution for Saddam Hussein than to bottle him up and leave him to rot. Then came along GW Bush advised by people from the Project for a New American Century who advocated a more 19th century foreign policy where the US, as the world's only super power, does what it wants on the world stage and everyone else will just have to live with it.

    The problem with Saddam Hussein was not that anyone felt we couldn't easily take him out militarily with little effort, the problem those who thought ahead saw was what comes next? Nobody had a good solution that any expert worth their salt thought could work, so two administrations of adults left him to rot. Then GW thought he was smarter than his father and went in guns blazing. The US won the invasion, which was the easy part, but let an insurrection get going and the US eventually had to leave with its tail between its legs.

    There is no good answer to North Korea, the best answers to the trade imbalances with China will take decades to pull off, the issue of Chinese intellectual property theft is only going to get lip service from the Chinese, and many of the other foreign policy issues Trump's people think are easy are in fact very difficult and past administrations didn't do anything harsh because all of them could easily turn into a situation as bad as Iraq or worse.

    The foreign policy with China for the last 20-30 years had been to do everything possible to make life as difficult as possible for China (like raise oil prices), and hope that China's internal cracks get worse. China is too big and too strong to take on directly. They have 3-4X the population of the US and an economy that is now larger. They also have the largest manufacturing base in the world. US exports are much more intellectual property and services now rather than manufactured goods. To fight China in the arena of manufactured goods is 19th century thinking and it's fighting them on their home turf. And the US is bringing a spoon to a gun fight.

    I have thought a good slogan for the Trump administration is "19th century solutions for 21st century problems". GW Bush's incompetence thinking a horribly complex problem was really simple in Iraq resulted in the destabilization of Iraq and helped fuel the Syrian civil war. It made the entire region less stable. Now Trump has come in and tried overly simple ideas in many places and we're likely going to be living with the consequences for the next 100 years or more.

    There are two reasons politicians don't tackle difficult problems:
    1) The problem is so complex that nobody has a great idea how to deal with it, so people kick the can down the road and hope for the best.
    2) It's politically not feasible because at least two factions have very different ideas about it and there is not enough political consensus to move forward.

    With the major rifts in the US right now, the smallest problems are falling into #2.
     
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  18. dmunjal

    dmunjal Member

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    What is the right path then?

    There is a direct connection between the out of work blue collar worker (due to bad trade policies) and the opioid crisis.

    Macroeconomic Conditions and Opioid Abuse

    There is a direct connection between illegal immigration and stagnant wages for the lower-skilled worker.

    Yes, Immigration Hurts American Workers

    These are issues that most presidents have been ignoring. Trump doesn't have a clue on how to solve them but has given them a voice.
     
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  19. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Well-Known Member

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    "These are issues that most presidents have been ignoring. Trump doesn't have a clue on how to solve them but has given them a voice."

    Ok, I could go along with this.....
     
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  20. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Senators Durbin and Grassley had been trying to reform it since _2008_.
     
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