For Californians I don't think a 4% difference on taxes is worth the risk due to how aggressively NEM 3.0 will de-value residential rooftop solar installs.
And it would be a bad idea to try and time this so it all magically works out sliding in right before the cutover periods. The utilities are too clever at slow-rolling approvals and PTO. There are zero things a homeowner can do to combat all of the PoCo's possible stall-tactics. The CPUC provides zero avenues for a homeowner to get recourse if PG&E is an absolute sh!t.
When I was getting solar in 2020, I had everything finally approved for the main service panel upgrade, battery export, solar export, etc. PG&E granted me a service disconnect. But when the PG&E lineman showed up at my house, he said my going solar + batteries was taking $ from PG&E's pocket. He said he didn't like what he saw at my house and threatened the workers on site that if they did any work, then he wouldn't re-activate my power. Naturally this scared the installer (Sunrun) and they took their crew home. Then when I tried to get my system re-approved, PG&E said I was in violation of the 120 percent busbar rule and refused to authorize another service disconnect unless I took the batteries off the installation.
The whole time, I attempted to work through the CPUC for support since I felt such aggressive/draconian stall tactics were putting my system at risk for the ITC. If Trump were re-elected, the ITC would drop to 22% instead of 26%. The CPUC told me they weren't responsible for executing agreements and enforcement against PG&E. Thanks a lot. The CPUC is useless when it comes to an individual's situation. The CPUC only cares about setting policy and expects the PoCo to be self-regulating. Useless.
With regard to NEM 3.0... Everyone in the California NEM 3.0 debate has accepted the reality that NEM 2.0 is "too generous" to solar customers. It is a standard/accepted point of view that NEM 3.0 will reduce the ROI of a solar installation. So we know NEM 3.0 is going to be bad, and it's likely going to be much worse than the 15% delta (+4% of the 26% current ITC) that is up for grabs from Uncle Joe.
If I couldn't get the CPUC to step in during a case where PG&E literally told me they didn't like my install because it harmed them financially (a clear violation of NEM 2.0), imagine what happens in the following hypothetical scenarios. What're you going to do... sue PG&E? Yeah good luck with that.
- PG&E tells a prospective homeowner that their solar install requires a new local transformer. While this is supposed to be "free" under current NEM rules, it could easily take them exactly 1 extra day to get that Transformer installed compared to when NEM 3.0 kicks in.
- PG&E claims a new meter connection/disconnect is disallowed and refuses to support a service disconnect.
- PG&E says their PTO department is understaffed, and can't get things approved until the day after NEM 3.0 comes into effect
- Edit: added a 4th scenario... PG&E refuses to grant PTO unless you add them as a named insured on your homeowners insurance. And many insurance companies don't want that type of exposure because they think PG&E causes fires and insurance companies don't like the scenario of liability owed to the USA's most corrupt utility. If you're thinking this is absolute BS... consider that I currently have PG&E named as an insured on my homeowner's policy. Without it, PG&E wouldn't have granted me PTO.
TLDR, solar installations require the PoCo to play ball and work with the homeowner. It's not worth gambling on the PoCo hitting deadlines to slide in before NEM 3.0 goes into effect.