MASTER THREAD: FSD Subscription Available 16 Jul 2021

[Knightshade]

Agree. I have a 2015 S and am not even sure I could get the $1500 upgrade to work with my old hardware, but I already have all of these features except stopping at traffic lights/stop signs. And I can use AP above 80, last time I checked. But...the world does seem to be moving more toward subscriptions.

A 2015 S has AP1. It's not upgradable for AP purposes, since it's lacking a bunch of cameras on the newer cars.

It also does not have all these same features (the entire NoA suite does not exist for AP1 for example-- neither does advanced version of summon)

 

[sgalla04]

I think what this means is in the short run Tesla will get, say, $400 a year from 60% of owners instead of a one-time $10,000 payment from 5% of owners. Something along those lines.

Something along these lines. I'm sure the analytics folks at Tesla have done the market research and ran the numbers. I realize you were just giving an example, but to show the impact of allowing a subscription your example pans out like this:

Say 100 owners:

• 5% at $10,000 = $50,000
• 60% at $400 = $24,000

I'm sure they've run the numbers and by adding subscription they expect to extract more revenue out of owners in the long run vs. lump sum purchases. Should be good for TSLA.

 

[HeyEph]

So, I bought EAP last Sept and love the NOA! Is the autopark any good? Any concern about wheel rim-rash with the parallel parking?

Also, can autopark be used to back into your garage while you remain in the car?

 

[ChicagoSox]

Thanks for your pity, but us folks will presumably have some (or maybe a lot) of resale value from FSD one day, whereas subscription customers will have zero FSD resale value.

Keep dreaming; a quick look at cars with this as an option shows nowhere near a 10k increase in price

 

[SageBrush]

Well.... if u don't have autopilot you have to purchase it for $3000 first

That is what I also see in the Tesla app for my 2018 Model 3 with 2.5 gen computer and no AP options.
Electrek however says

For those who own a vehicle without the FSD computer (HW3.0), they can still order the monthly subscription, but they are going to have to pay $1,500 for the computer upgrade, which is included in the $10,000 price of a direct purchase.

We'll have to wait for some clarity. Personally, if I can pay $1,500 for the computer upgrade and then pay $200 a month for FSD when I road trip I'll be really happy. If however the offer for my car is pay $3,000+$1,500+the subscription fee, I'll pass.

Or perhaps the deal for me will be pay $3,000 of AP (which includes the FSD computer) and then be able to subscribe to FSD at $200 a month. That would also be an attractive offer since the AP feature I most want is DRCC and that is in the basic AP list.

Does anybody know if the $3,000 AP upgrade includes the HW 3.0 computer ?

Addendum:
I spoke with a sales rep at El Paso Texas.
She thinks that both HW 3.0 and EAP are prerequisites for a subscription to FSD in the case of my car. I didn't ask, but since EAP is more than the basic AP that comes with current cars it may mean that my monthly subscription would then be $99 and not $199.

I'll pass on that offer, and hope for the day when an EAP upgrade is under $2,000.

 

[qdeathstar]

Does ordering now lock the price? If it doesn’t...

It locks it in for one month....

 

[tmp131]

I think $199 is still a rip off. Not worth that to me.

Too bad they don’t have an EAP option for $50 a month. I would take that. If Tesla continue to hold out on these features except at stupid prices, then I will get another brand next time. Basic autopilot is below par for the standard of a driver’s assitance package.

Why is autopilot below par? It autosteer and keeps car in center of the lane pretty well. I know there are some phantom braking; but overall, it is fairly decent.

 

[electrifyme]

Most people thought the 10k was for full FSD L5 in "two weeks". That's a long ways off so they'll never get what they thought they paid for.

 

[rohiggidy]

In a subscription agreement on Tesla’s website, Elon Musk’s electric vehicle maker cautions that, among other things:

• FSD features are “subject to change, limited by region,” and can only be used on Tesla vehicles that have newer hardware and Autopilot technology installed.
• Drivers are responsible for tolls, parking or other traffic violations that happen in a Tesla that’s operating with FSD features engaged.
• Tesla can increase the price for a subscription any time, but will give drivers a one-month advance notice before billing them at a new rate.
• Owners can cancel FSD any time but the company won’t prorate their monthly payment if they do.
• Tesla can suspend or cancel a driver’s FSD subscription if they use the technology, “for anything unauthorized or inappropriate” or for non-payment.

 

[bayareaever]

Keep dreaming; a quick look at cars with this as an option shows nowhere near a 10k increase in price

I agree that present resale is well below $10k, probably more like $2k for a private sale. My point is that resale will inevitably rise once features are fully released and the $10k new order price also presumably rises. Subscription resale is and always will be zero.

Subscription monthly cost will also inevitably rise at some point or it could also simply become unavailable if it’s not benefitting the company. Solar subscriptions quietly went away several months ago. I personally think the subscription is just a way for owners to experience FSD. If it doesn’t lead to actual FSD sales in sufficient numbers, it may get yanked.

 

[Dan D.]

Most people thought the 10k was for full FSD L5 in "two weeks". That's a long ways off so they'll never get what they thought they paid for.

Even if/when FSD Beta gets released it will still be just L2. It really should just be called Limited Self Driving so there is less confusion over what it does. Driving on LSD would also go a long way to describe some of its wrong-way tendencies.

 

[Sbaimo]

Just received my new refreshed S. I am going to try FSD it for a couple
Months and see how much I like it. I always felt Tesla was stupid for not including 3 months free with car purchase as it might entice people to purchase.
But maybe they did not want to give free trial because they feel people might not think it is worthwhile.

I am thrilled to try it for a couple
Months and then judge

 

[azred]

So $200 month for auto lane change and stopping at traffic lights? No thanks.

Love auto lane change. The stoplight feature is useless as it will try to stop even on green unless following someone. Way more annoying than useful. I have had it turned off since a day after getting it.

So $200 for auto lane change and for that price I would pass.

Hopefully Tesla will decide to have another “sale” on purchasing FSD as they did two years ago. I purchased it then for both cars but the current bloated cost simply means I will not get another new Tesla for years, if ever. By then there may be worthy competitors — something comparable to Tesla Supercharging, which to me is the dealbreaker for other brands currently.

I do believe Tesla will eventually include AP/FSD on all cars. This current model seems doomed for failure.

 

[gearchruncher]

My point is that resale will inevitably rise once features are fully released and the $10k new order price also presumably rises.

FSD has been "3 months probably, 6 months definitely" away for 53 months now. There are people that bought FSD with leases whose leases expired 17 months ago and they never saw any value for that multi thousand dollar purchase. Can you imagine how much money they would have if they had put all that money in Tesla stock instead of a software license for a future capability?

So yeah, maybe you'll see value someday. Maybe you'll get nothing. Maybe your car will get totaled tomorrow and the insurance company will see that FSD adds nothing to resale.

I personally think the subscription is just a way for owners to experience FSD. If it doesn’t lead to actual FSD sales in sufficient numbers, it may get yanked.

Alternate theory- the take rate on $10K FSD was so low that they had to do something to try and get revenue.

 

[Fakedevil]

Thanks for your pity, but us folks will presumably have some (or maybe a lot) of resale value from FSD one day, whereas subscription customers will have zero FSD resale value.

I was a bit harsh in my initial post, but yea sure you will have some FSD resale value but it will never equate to what one can do with 10k in trades over time. I also think folks who want to buy resale (or new for that matter) would prefer the flexibility of using FSD when they need it vs allocating 10k in cash or in loan, thus my concern that FSD enabled vehicles has lesser values. If you do invest 10k into it early on, I don't think you will realize your FSD value in terms of what usage you get out of it right now..

That said, if you have deposable $10k and don't really care about money/profit then yea I do support the idea of investing in tesla to fulfil the dream. I do want to see them succeed, it will just take a few more years to get to the state where I would like full self driving to be..

 

[Dan D.]

For all the timelines on subscription since it was announced in April 2020, could it not have been released much sooner? It's no big deal, just $199/month. They could have done this in May 2020.

 

[rxlawdude]

I'm going to proffer a more encouraging reason for the subscription: Tesla's closer to the City release (than the naysayer boo birds), which would provide a compelling value proposition for one to subscribe. $199/mo for current FSD functionality doesn't (IMO) pencil out, but would with a couple more iterations of the FSD beta.

 

[CapeOne]

Something along these lines. I'm sure the analytics folks at Tesla have done the market research and ran the numbers. I realize you were just giving an example, but to show the impact of allowing a subscription your example pans out like this:

Say 100 owners:

• 5% at $10,000 = $50,000
• 60% at $400 = $24,000

I'm sure they've run the numbers and by adding subscription they expect to extract more revenue out of owners in the long run vs. lump sum purchases. Should be good for TSLA.

In the hypothetical example, the subscription model would generate nearly twice the revenue for Tesla. The example given was $400 per subscriber per year which would mean that if the average owner kept the car for four years, Tesla would still see the $50k from 5% (5 of 100) of owners that paid $10k upfront but would get $96k (60 x $400 x 4 years) from the subscribers over the same period.

If the numbers/stats (however they end up) don't work out in Tesla's favor, I am sure the subscription option will be tweaked if not removed completely.

 

[gearchruncher]

I'm going to proffer a more encouraging reason for the subscription: Tesla's closer to the City release (than the naysayer boo birds), which would provide a compelling value proposition for one to subscribe. $199/mo for current FSD functionality doesn't (IMO) pencil out, but would with a couple more iterations of the FSD beta.

And I'll proffer the reverse. Elon constantly made it sound like the sub and CSA would be tied together. He only talked about subs when he thought he was close to CSA over a year ago. Which only makes sense, and would be an amazing marketing release to say "CSA for all customers, and you can now get it for only $199!"

Instead, the fact they just released it on a random Friday, tied to nothing else, with no fanfare, makes it seem like they know CSA is a long time away, and they might as well try for any revenue they can get right now. And now we have Elon saying this about CSA, so even he doesn't indicate it's anytime soon:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416284907299647489

Oh Elon, never change. Keep using "definitely". I mean, FSD subs were a "sure thing" for May, and I'm sure he's still getting over his surprise that wide beta didn't come out last month..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1382460531550785541

 

[bayareaever]

I was a bit harsh in my initial post, but yea sure you will have some FSD resale value but it will never equate to what one can do with 10k in trades over time. I also think folks who want to buy resale (or new for that matter) would prefer the flexibility of using FSD when they need it vs allocating 10k in cash or in loan, thus my concern that FSD enabled vehicles has lesser values. If you do invest 10k into it early on, I don't think you will realize your FSD value in terms of what usage you get out of it right now..

That said, if you have deposable $10k and don't really care about money/profit then yea I do support the idea of investing in tesla to fulfil the dream. I do want to see them succeed, it will just take a few more years to get to the state where I would like full self driving to be..

FSD is like lots of other investments in terms of balancing risk/reward. Either you believe the hype or you don’t. The subscription (over time) is just a really unstable option because it has zero resale and it’s almost inevitably either going to rise in price or become unavailable.