Mobileye rips Tesla Autopilot, Chairman says it dumped Tesla

[Electroman]

It was deficient to handle every case you could throw at it, but near perfect for the conditions Tesla recommends that we use it for - highways with marked lanes, with the driver watching the road. And Tesla never said it can handle those FL type conditions anyway.

It deserves every accolade it gets for its intended usage.

 

[jerry33]

Indeed? Does that mean that Tesla sold their customers a deficient technology, yet hyped the supposed ability of that technology all the same? After all, people didn't buy a Mobileye, they bought a Tesla and it was Elon Musk who claimed that Autopilot was safer than a human driver.

"Safer than a human driver", and "totally foolproof" are not equivalent statements.

 

[EinSV]

Indeed? Does that mean that Tesla sold their customers a deficient technology, yet hyped the supposed ability of that technology all the same? After all, people didn't buy a Mobileye, they bought a Tesla and it was Elon Musk who claimed that Autopilot was safer than a human driver.

No, as I explained a few posts up:

Lex, thanks for raising -- let me clarify my statement a bit.

Absolutely the driver is responsible for maintaining control of the vehicle. But if the goal is to reach something like 10 times safer driving with the help of automated systems, the Florida accident put a spotlight on a situation where a system using Mobileye's cameras alone cannot detect and avoid an accident when the driver is unable to avoid it for whatever reason.

To Tesla's credit, it appears to have very quickly developed a fix using radar, which it is in the process of implementing in a very short period of time. I don't believe Mobileye has a solution to this problem and coming up with one may prove challenging given the limitations of its current systems.

The point is that systems using only Mobileye's camera-based technology do not appear to have the capability to prevent a crash like the one in Florida, whereas the new version of AP with radar does. The driver is always responsible for safe operation of the vehicle. The first iteration of AP was a good start and the limited data available is consistent with it being as safe or safer than a human driver. There is no credible evidence I have seen that it is less safe than a driver w/o Autopilot.

So Tesla found a hole in the capabilities of Mobileye's technology that prevented it from avoiding certain types of accidents and fixed it. According to Elon, AP v.8 will be twice as safe as driving without AP and with fleet learning will soon be about three times as safe. If the data confirms this, it would be a major advance in vehicle safety, on the same order of magnitude as seat belts. And we're just getting started.

I think the fact that Mobileye's technology is no longer front and center because of its limitations is part of the reason for Mobileye's combative response.

 

[Just a Reader]

It was deficient to handle every case you could throw at it, but near perfect for the conditions Tesla recommends that we use it for - highways with marked lanes, with the driver watching the road. And Tesla never said it can handle those FL type conditions anyway.

It deserves every accolade it gets for its intended usage.

A stationary vehicle blocking the lane is certainly one of the most common causes for accidents under such conditions, yet AP fails to recognize that the lane is blocked. How can AP be safer than a human driver if the human driver has to step in to prevent AP from causing an accident?

 

[Just a Reader]

.....According to Elon, AP v.8 will be twice as safe as driving without AP and with fleet learning will soon be about three times as safe....

Didn't he claim that for the current version of AP already? Which version of AP will catch up with his claims?

 

[EinSV]

Didn't he claim that for the current version of AP already? Which version of AP will catch up with his claims?

As I said above, the publicly available data from the first version of AP is consistent with it already being better than a driver without it. With more and more cars on the road with AP, I expect we'll see definitive data once enough miles are logged on AP 8.0.

 

[Just a Reader]

As I said above, the publicly available data from the first version of AP is consistent with it already being better than a driver without it. With more and more cars on the road with AP, I expect we'll see definitive data once enough miles are logged on AP 8.0.

Which data is that supposed to be?

 

[EinSV]

Which data is that supposed to be?

As noted above, there have not been enough miles logged yet IMO for a definitive conclusion on whether the first version of AP is safer or just as safe as driving without. There have been 200,000,000 plus miles and one confirmed fatality and at most two depending on the outcome of the China crash inquiry. (And in each case, the accidents appear to have been avoidable by the driver.) This is consistent with AP being just as safe or safer than driving without. I have certainly seen no evidence to support the conclusion that driving with AP is less safe than driving without, as you seem to imply.

Tesla's AP system is certainly far superior to those of other manufacturers, including Mercedes, who seem to escape criticism for some strange reason.

In any case, I wasn't intending to re-hash the debate about the safety of the first version of AP. That already has been discussed ad nauseum --there are probably tens of thousands of posts on that already on TMC and the first version of AP is going to be outdated in a few days so that discussion seems like a waste of time to me.

My point was that with the introduction of v8.0 AP, Mobileye's technology is no longer the bright light at the center of the AP universe. And it is not at all happy about that and seems to be throwing a public temper tantrum as a result.

 

[Just a Reader]

Basically you are saying that there is no hard data to support the bold claims that were made by Musk but that no one should care as v8.0 will take care of it all and deliver what was promised previously?

Things don't work like that. AP is a device that is critical for safety. It's not some smartphone app that will only result in negative reviews if it doesn't deliver what was promised.
Tesla should really be glad that the Chinese accident didn't get more press exposure yet.

 

[lolachampcar]

From TM Forums. Carl found a neat bit on how hackers are approaching AP with "AI".

carlk | September 17, 2016
I stumbled onto this article published late last year which I have a faint memory of.

Elon: “Frankly, I think you should just work at Tesla. I’m happy to work out a multimillion-dollar bonus with a longer time horizon that pays out as soon as we discontinue Mobileye.”

https://electrek.co/2015/12/16/elon-musk-offered-a-multimillion-dollar-b...

 

[lolachampcar]

JR,
Read the warnings and instructions that come with AP (and actually require your acknowledgement before you can even activate it). I'll be the first to say that Musk got ahead of himself at the D announce but I think it has been perfectly clear to the users of this technology exactly what the capability is and exactly what is expected of them if they are going to use it. The fact that it is being constantly improved is icing on the cake, not proof the original cake was deficient.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Gawd, why do Tesla forums seem to attract people who remind me of the Monty Python Argument sketch? Most of the multi page arguments aren't worth the time to skip them, they are so petty. Here's a suggestion: unless you have actual information or questions, consider not posting?

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Here's another good article that sheds some light on the bigger game being played here, and why Tesla is going to win and Mobileye is going to lose:

Why The Tesla/Mobileye Fight Defines An Industry-Wide Schism

 

[Todd Burch]

How can AP be safer than a human driver if the human driver has to step in to prevent AP from causing an accident?

You misunderstand the claim. Autopilot is safer than a human driver alone as long as the driver remains attentive and engaged. That's what Elon is saying.

Obviously, anyone who's driven autopilot for 5 minutes knows that autopilot alone will result in a crash or your death in short order, which obviously is not safer than a human driver.

Let's not play with words to the extent of silliness.

 

[green1]

JR,
Read the warnings and instructions that come with AP (and actually require your acknowledgement before you can even activate it). I'll be the first to say that Musk got ahead of himself at the D announce but I think it has been perfectly clear to the users of this technology exactly what the capability is and exactly what is expected of them if they are going to use it. The fact that it is being constantly improved is icing on the cake, not proof the original cake was deficient.

And here you've caught the whole essence of this.
I'm pissed off that Tesla has not released the feature set that they promised at the D event. The current version of AP is nowhere close to any of the features they listed, and I don't think they can claim that "several months" haven't passed yet. Worse yet, every subsequent release of AP (7.0-7.1-8.0) actually takes them FURTHER away from the promised feature set.

That said, I am even more pissed off at all the idiots who use the system beyond what has been delivered (and nobody should pretend that any of those idiots think Tesla actually delivered what they claimed at the D event, because there are so many warnings, blog posts, manual pages, etc dedicated to this that it's just not possible to be that ignorant) And worse yet, the individuals who use the system not only beyond what was delivered, but even beyond what was promised.

Tesla has 2 options here. The right answer would be to call out the idiots misusing the system and proceed to deliver on their promises from the D event. But instead Tesla has chosen to ignore their own promises, and cater directly to the idiots misusing the system.

Just so I'm perfectly clear. Every change that Tesla makes to deal with idiots abusing the system takes them further away from their promises, and makes the system worse for every single responsible Tesla user.

 

[Electroman]

Reader: you want facts? You want numbers?

Just look at this forum and count the % of folks gushing about AP - I would hazard a guess upwards of 95% of Tesla owners, green1 and golfingBuddha notwithstanding.

Look at another way, those who complain and nit pick over at this forum or on the blogosphere are over 99% of folks who don't own or driven AP at all (test drives don't count). And you fit that profile.

Step back. Take a deep breadth and start wondering why that is the case?

Or you can continue rambling on how Elon is deceiving and such. And you will get replies here. But that doesn't mean you are being taken seriously.

If Elon says AP is 3 times safer and turns out that it is only 1.1 times. I will take it.

AP plus human attention is undoubtedly safer then humans alone. There is no way around it.

 

[green1]

I think you misunderstand. I AM gushing about AP, I love it, it's amazing. It's way ahead of anything else on the market. (even if it's not even close to what was promised at the D event) What I dislike is unnecessary restrictions added to vehicles after purchase. The system is amazing. It doesn't need extra restrictions. And I don't appreciate any company who doesn't respect the transfer of ownership that comes with selling a product. Tesla doesn't own the car after I pay for it.

I would however argue that reading these threads, there is a huge percentage of people on here who DON'T like AP, in fact every person who prefers added restrictions on it obviously didn't like it very much.

 

[Electroman]

Green1: got it. You have a different bone to pick. That's fine.

Now my 95% has only gone up !! -

 

[msnow]

Green1: got it. You have a different bone to pick. That's fine.

Now my 95% has only gone up !! -

mk, it's not 95% but people who love it are much more enthusiastic than the meh people.

 

[Just a Reader]

You misunderstand the claim. Autopilot is safer than a human driver alone as long as the driver remains attentive and engaged. That's what Elon is saying.

It's quite spectacular how Tesla's bold claims are pared down here to something that is basically meaningless. From Musk's

“Indeed, if anyone bothered to do the math (obviously, you did not) they would realize that of the over 1M auto deaths per year worldwide, approximately half a million people would have been saved if the Tesla autopilot was universally available. Please, take 5 mins and do the bloody math before you write an article that misleads the public.”

we have now arrived at "AP is somewhat safer than a driver on his own provided it is used on divided roads with clear markings and as long as the driver remains attentive and engaged".

OK.