Decades!!
This is considered solved, and we are probably less than two years away.
According to my source.
Self-driving cars are a “solved problem,” says Elon Musk
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Decades!!
This is considered solved, and we are probably less than two years away.
According to my source.
Self-driving cars are a “solved problem,” says Elon Musk
The actual quote is "I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years".Decades!!
This is considered solved, and we are probably less than two years away.
According to my source.
Self-driving cars are a “solved problem,” says Elon Musk
I don't think "solved" can be reasonably understood as "inevitable" (can I consider space colonization, artificial superintelligence or biological immortality 'solved' because I think it's inevitable?)The actual quote is "I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years".
The "solved" part being that it's inevitable (he alluded to elevator operators), not that there is not more development required.
Perhaps Mobileye should have been given more credit , and less focus on autopilot vs EV
That was from a different talk. The "solved" quote is from GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose, California, on March 17, 2015, not Code conference.I don't think "solved" can be reasonably understood as "inevitable" (can I consider space colonization, artificial superintelligence or biological immortality 'solved' because I think it's inevitable?)
Anyway, the words that actually came out of his mouth were "I think we're basically less than two years away from complete autonomy. Complete." So since he repeated the word "complete" I guess he meant L5. Especially considering the question he was answering.
Watch him say it for yourself @ 1:20:00 :
Elon Musk clarifies Tesla’s plan for level 5 fully autonomous driving: 2 years away from sleeping in the car
(...)
CEO Elon Musk has clarified the plans this week and now predicts that true level 5 autonomy is about 2 years away (...)
I never got to got through that video (I absolutely hate that there is no captions or transcript found for this video). Now listening to it. The question asked was autonomy in terms of someone putting their grandma in the car (who couldn't drive) and then the car taking her from point A to point B.I don't think "solved" can be reasonably understood as "inevitable" (can I consider space colonization, artificial superintelligence or biological immortality 'solved' because I think it's inevitable?)
Anyway, the words that actually came out of his mouth were "I think we're basically less than two years away from complete autonomy. Complete." So since he repeated the word "complete" I guess he meant L5. Especially considering the question he was answering.
Watch him say it for yourself @ 1:20:00 :
Again, stop putting words in my mouth. I never said I believed it. I only want to put the correct time frames that Elon predicted and the correct context in terms of what he means by complete autonomy (which yours may not be correct).No matter how you spin it, elon predicted multiple times repeatedly that Level 5 will be here between Dec 2017 and June 2018.
Thats 6-12 months from now.
@stopcrazypp actually believes this. Its mind boggling. You almost want to ask what alternate reality does he live in?
The media just uses L5 as a catch all (when I'm lazy I do that too). But as per looking at the video, Elon's criteria for technical complete autonomy is simply better than a human. That may not be enough for consumer release though (which is why he keeps emphasizing the regulatory part).Btw I'm not the only one interpreting EM this way. Electrek Apr. 29th 2017:
So L5 by 2019, then.
On a side note: When's the self driving bike coming? Motorcycles do have a higher rate of fatal accidents than automobiles. Plus, sleeping behind the handle bars is probably extremely comfortable and practical
No matter how you spin it, elon predicted multiple times repeatedly that Level 5 will be here between Dec 2017 and June 2018.
Thats 6-12 months from now.
@stopcrazypp actually believes this. Its mind boggling. You almost want to ask what alternate reality does he live in?
Btw I'm not the only one interpreting EM this way. Electrek Apr. 29th 2017:
So L5 by 2019, then.
On a side note: When's the self driving bike coming? Motorcycles do have a higher rate of fatal accidents than automobiles. Plus, sleeping behind the handle bars is probably extremely comfortable and practical
No one should get caught up in these "2020/2021" announcements because only a very few companies can hit it. Whether its L4 Urban or Highway.
Google, Nissan, GM, Volvo, Audi
Again, stop putting words in my mouth. I never said I believed it. I only want to put the correct time frames that Elon predicted and the correct context in terms of what he means by complete autonomy (which yours may not be correct).
From the "24 to 36 months" on his January 2016 GTC talk where the "solved" quote is from, that puts things at the beginning of 2018 to beginning of 2019.
And criteria is "drive on virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than human". That may or may not match the L5 definition depending on which one you use.
Me believing in the statement, and what my interpretation of the statement is, are two different things!
This is the second time I directly talked to you about this. I hope there won't be a third time.
Personally, I find it unlikely even if they get all the software done that there won't be a ton of regulatory red tape to get through, so 2018 doesn't seem likely. Regulators so far seem clueless about how to regulate these vehicles, so it's all a work in progress... They might be able to release in one specific jurisdiction less strict though.
Even if Tesla releases in late 2018/early 2019, they will still be ahead. I believe the earliest predicted release by others is 2020 at the earliest.
Interesting, he is not supporting lidar-mapping.Yet another extremely informative talk by Amnon Shashua, really worth watching. He even mentions Tesla a couple of times:
The maps are for redundancy, so the car is dependent on them in that regard. Kind of sucks to have a back up-map that's several months or even years old.. but yes let's wait and see
Lol, again trying to put words in my mouth. Let's see the whole comment train.That again sounds like someone who deeply believe Tesla will have level 5 software that is better than human fully complete in 2018.
Own up to your beliefs, don't hide from it so you can defend yourself in 2018 when Tesla is found to not be even close.
For one, this should dispel the notion by some that somehow Tesla had promised FSD level 5 driving would be released this year.
The LA to NYC demo will happen this year, but that's just a demo, not release to customers.
This also dispel the notion from many tesla fans who claim that tesla is ahead and not only ahead but ahead by years. But we both know that's not how it works right? People will twist and contour things to fit their own warped logic.
Example below and look at those upvotes
This is in response to your claim (bolded) that Elon's timeline in that thread (late 2018/early 2019) dispels the notion by some that Tesla is ahead by years. I'm saying it doesn't because even if Tesla releases during late 2018/early 2019, they will still be ahead.Even if Tesla releases in late 2018/early 2019, they will still be ahead. I believe the earliest predicted release by others is 2020 at the earliest.
My comment is more related to the people who took this tweet out of context (and also his promise of a year end demo) to mean FSD level 5 driving released to customers by this year:
Elon Musk on Twitter
so you truly believe that tesla will release L5 in 2018?
You took that to mean I believe that they will release L5 in 2018. I clearly said I personally didn't because even if the software is done by then, the regulators won't allow it. That doesn't mean I believe that the software would be done by 2018! Only that it's irrelevant even if the software is done by then.Personally, I find it unlikely even if they get all the software done that there won't be a ton of regulatory red tape to get through, so 2018 doesn't seem likely. Regulators so far seem clueless about how to regulate these vehicles, so it's all a work in progress.
Even one simple thing can stop them, like for example the regulators requiring redundant non-visual sensors for the entire 360 degree view. Or competitors lobby to require Lidar for example, just to trip up Tesla; I would not be surprised if GM did it, given they have a history of lobbying for legislation specifically to trip up competitors (examples: lobby against Tesla direct sales, lobby to ban CHAdeMO in publicly funded chargers).
They might be able to release in one specific jurisdiction less strict though.
Again, you keep quoting timelines by Elon without quoting the accompanying conditions for that time line. The actual definition of L5 (legal or SAE, which may not be the same) vs his conditions are not necessarily the same.Secondly there are no two definition of L5, there is only one. One definition that is legal, one definition that all industry and the courts will comply to since all the legislation reference and use the SAE definition. Not the media nonsense, the same media that calls Tesla autopilot level 3? the same media that even calls Tesla autopilot a level 5 self driving car. If i had a dollar for every article that I've read that called autopilot a level 3 car i would be even more richer.
This is what you do, you twist statements and use it to your advantage when its completely clear that Level 5 autonomy is legally and lawfully defined as "the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver".
So when elon says "drive on virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than human". That is literally paraphrasing the SAE & NHTSA law.
The difference between level 4 and 5 is abundantly clear, anyone who confuses it after given the facts are being purposely deceptive to protect Tesla.
The difference is operational design domain (ODD) or driving mode-specific which is defined as a type of driving scenario with characteristic dynamic driving task requirements (e.g., expressway merging, high speed cruising, low speed traffic jam, closed-campus operations, etc.) OR where (such as what roadway types, roadway speeds, etc.) and when (under what conditions, such as day/night, normal or work zone, etc.) an HAV is designed to operate.
Every single person who talks about 2020 is either talking about a car sold to consumers that can L4 drive itself in limited access highway only and/or talking about a Level 4 mobility urban taxi car that is without a driver but operates in a specific city, in specific routes, under specific whether conditions.
Elon on the other hand is talking about a car that operates on every road a human can and under conditions humans can and do it significantly better.
January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
Elon Musk on Twitter
June 2016: ""I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem," he said. "I think we are probably less than two years away."
So Elon initially believed, predicted and vowed he will finish level 5 software by Dec 2017 to June 2018 and based on your previous posts, you believe him. Unless you are getting cold feet and want to retract them now?
Then there's the other issue of verifying if they meet SAE L5 in the first place. How can it be verified the car's software is SAE L5 if the laws don't allow consumers to use it by then (and thus for independent testers to verify in various conditions)? If Tesla just makes an announcement that they accomplished this and maybe just show some videos (but doesn't release the software due to regulatory reasons) would you believe them and say they met their promises?
These little details matter, and I'm fairly certain you will nitpick them to death when the time comes.