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Discussion in 'Autonomous Vehicles' started by lunitiks, Mar 26, 2017.
The actual quote is "I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years".
The "solved" part being that it's inevitable (he alluded to elevator operators), not that there is not more development required.
Perhaps Mobileye should have been given more credit , and less focus on autopilot vs EV
I don't think "solved" can be reasonably understood as "inevitable" (can I consider space colonization, artificial superintelligence or biological immortality 'solved' because I think it's inevitable?)
Anyway, the words that actually came out of his mouth were "I think we're basically less than two years away from complete autonomy. Complete." So since he repeated the word "complete" I guess he meant L5. Especially considering the question he was answering.
Watch him say it for yourself @ 1:20:00 :
That was from a different talk. The "solved" quote is from GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose, California, on March 17, 2015, not Code conference.
My meaning by "inevitable" is that the technology is there and the pathway to achieving it is clear. Space colonization perhaps qualifies (depends on how far you are talking about though). Artificial superintelligence or biological immortality perhaps not (I don't think we have a clear path to achieving that yet).
The example I used was flying cars. It's not inevitable because there is no clear path to achieving it. But for self driving cars, I think the industry agrees that they know how to get there and that they will get there.
As I replied in the thread I quoted, people may think that Elon meant that in 2015 they already had a system working as FSD. That's clearly not what he meant if you look at the whole quote.
And on that matter, here's what he said in January 2016:
""Ultimately you’ll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you." The sometimes-fantastical CEO added, "I think that within two years, you’ll be able to summon your car from across the country," citing, for example, a Tesla owner beckoning their vehicle to drive solo from New York to meet him in LA."
"Musk later admitted that his predictions "might be slightly optimistic" and he clarified that sort of autonomous driving would require more than a simple software update to existing Model S and Model X vehicles."
"in that timeframe of 24 to 36 months, it will be able to drive on virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than human."
Elon Musk predicts a Tesla will be able to drive itself across the country in 2018
No matter how you spin it, elon predicted multiple times repeatedly that Level 5 will be here between Dec 2017 and June 2018.
Thats 6-12 months from now.
@stopcrazypp actually believes this. Its mind boggling. You almost want to ask what alternate reality does he live in?
Btw I'm not the only one interpreting EM this way. Electrek Apr. 29th 2017:
So L5 by 2019, then.
On a side note: When's the self driving bike coming? Motorcycles do have a higher rate of fatal accidents than automobiles. Plus, sleeping behind the handle bars is probably extremely comfortable and practical
I never got to got through that video (I absolutely hate that there is no captions or transcript found for this video). Now listening to it. The question asked was autonomy in terms of someone putting their grandma in the car (who couldn't drive) and then the car taking her from point A to point B.
You omitted the last part of his answer: he said "safer than a human". Elon seems to use that as a criteria (not the standard L4/L5 definitions).
He also added the regulators will add at least another year (he repeated the "at least") because they will want to see billions of miles of data to show it is statistically true that there is a substantial improvement in safety. He said he doesn't think regulators would accept something that is approximately as good as a person, but rather at least 2x as good or maybe 5 or 10x as good. To summarize he said he feels less than 2 years before technically possible (in context, safer than human) and at least 3 years before regulatory possible (in context, 2x, 5x, 10x safer).
This would be a lot easier if there was a transcript.
Again, stop putting words in my mouth. I never said I believed it. I only want to put the correct time frames that Elon predicted and the correct context in terms of what he means by complete autonomy (which yours may not be correct).
From the "24 to 36 months" on his January 2016 GTC talk where the "solved" quote is from, that puts things at the beginning of 2018 to beginning of 2019.
And criteria is "drive on virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than human". That may or may not match the L5 definition depending on which one you use.
Me believing in the statement, and what my interpretation of the statement is, are two different things!
This is the second time I directly talked to you about this. I hope there won't be a third time.
The media just uses L5 as a catch all (when I'm lazy I do that too). But as per looking at the video, Elon's criteria for technical complete autonomy is simply better than a human. That may not be enough for consumer release though (which is why he keeps emphasizing the regulatory part).
While I agree with you guys.
When has Musk ever said L3, L4, L5 will be here by a certain date.
So I am curious how these 5 companies would deploy L4 in the next 3/4 years.
So I imagine very soon they will start taking rides with Lyft with safety drivers.
I am wondering when do you think Waymo will remove the safety drivers? 2019?
So I imagine in Tokyo and maybe in U.K. As well Nissan would launch a driverless taxi service.
But what about selling personal cars? Would nissan sell cars that would have L4 ability for highways. Probably Japan only, unless they get reliable maps for other areas.
Also prepping to launch autonomous bolts with Lyft. But I imagine safety drivers at first. Then when would GM be able to remove safety drivers ? 2020?
I am not super familiar with Volvo and their plans, but I imagine you are suggesting Volvo would sell cars to the General Public that will be L4 on highways. But I would guess only functional in Sweeded highways?
So we know at CES 2017, Audi says they will have a car on roads in 2020, that they are calling "advanced AI car." But no other details about it. The Audi guy said in stage "level 4". But nowhere else that was mentioned in press releases.
I imagine this car could have a L4 mode on highways. But can also drive autonomously in cities as L2.
But then again I am curious where it would be allowed to operate. For both highways and non highways.
Your statements precedes you. You have made numerous statement that gives expectation of Level 5 in 2018.
That's not a statement of a guy who thinks level 5 in 2018 is laughable. it sounds like the statement of a guy who believes Elon will have completed level 5 software in 2018 but doesn't want to directly acknowledge it so he wouldn't be scorned.
You even went as far as to say that
That again sounds like someone who deeply believe Tesla will have level 5 software that is better than human fully complete in 2018.
Own up to your beliefs, don't hide from it so you can defend yourself in 2018 when Tesla is found to not be even close.
Secondly there are no two definition of L5, there is only one. One definition that is legal, one definition that all industry and the courts will comply to since all the legislation reference and use the SAE definition. Not the media nonsense, the same media that calls Tesla autopilot level 3? the same media that even calls Tesla autopilot a level 5 self driving car. If i had a dollar for every article that I've read that called autopilot a level 3 car i would be even more richer.
This is what you do, you twist statements and use it to your advantage when its completely clear that Level 5 autonomy is legally and lawfully defined as "the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver".
So when elon says "drive on virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than human". That is literally paraphrasing the SAE & NHTSA law.
The difference between level 4 and 5 is abundantly clear, anyone who confuses it after given the facts are being purposely deceptive to protect Tesla.
The difference is operational design domain (ODD) or driving mode-specific which is defined as a type of driving scenario with characteristic dynamic driving task requirements (e.g., expressway merging, high speed cruising, low speed traffic jam, closed-campus operations, etc.) OR where (such as what roadway types, roadway speeds, etc.) and when (under what conditions, such as day/night, normal or work zone, etc.) an HAV is designed to operate.
Every single person who talks about 2020 is either talking about a car sold to consumers that can L4 drive itself in limited access highway only and/or talking about a Level 4 mobility urban taxi car that is without a driver but operates in a specific city, in specific routes, under specific whether conditions.
Elon on the other hand is talking about a car that operates on every road a human can and under conditions humans can and do it significantly better.
January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
Elon Musk on Twitter
June 2016: ""I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem," he said. "I think we are probably less than two years away."
So Elon initially believed, predicted and vowed he will finish level 5 software by Dec 2017 to June 2018 and based on your previous posts, you believe him. Unless you are getting cold feet and want to retract them now?
Interesting, he is not supporting lidar-mapping.
When construction areas can change very fast I can't see how driving could be based on some archived data.
The way I see it, one of the main issues with Elons "predictions" on FSD is that he's not using the same vocabulary / language as the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE).
Elon speaks of "Self Driving", "Autonomous" and "Driverless" cars -- terms that are both popular and easy to remember, but alas ambiguous, confusing and misleading in the context of SAEs levels of automation.
In fact SAE has an entire chapter on why such terms should be avoided. Keywords:
They fail to distinguish between situations in which (a) no driver is present, (b) no user is performing the driving tasks, and (c) the system performs 'most' of, or 'any parts' of, the driving tasks;
They obscure the question of whether the vehicle depends on communication and/or cooperation with outside entities for important functionality. (Which raises the question of whether the system should be deemed 'cooperative' rather than 'autonomous');
They suggest that it is the vehicle, rather than the driving, that is the object of automation;
Accurately assigning a level -- other than L5 -- requires identifying a range of important factors, such as the systems level of automation (i.e. its ability to perform the lateral and longitudinal vehicle motion control), its ability and responsibility for monitoring the environment (object and event detection, response execution and preparation) and maneuver planning, plus - perhaps most importantly - ODD; operational design domain, i.e. the specific conditions under which the system is pre-programmed (not) to function. You can't classify the system simply on the basis of how long it can stay engaged: You need to take into account geographic (geo-fenced), roadway, environmental, traffic, temporal and other limitations. Also, a given feature may be designed to operate exclusively above a certain speed (Autosteer), below a certain speed (Self parking), or in both of these driving modes (TACC).
Thankfully, all of this is superfluous info as Elon has confirmed that AP2 will be L5
Lol, again trying to put words in my mouth. Let's see the whole comment train.
This is in response to your claim (bolded) that Elon's timeline in that thread (late 2018/early 2019) dispels the notion by some that Tesla is ahead by years. I'm saying it doesn't because even if Tesla releases during late 2018/early 2019, they will still be ahead.
You took that to mean I believe that they will release L5 in 2018. I clearly said I personally didn't because even if the software is done by then, the regulators won't allow it. That doesn't mean I believe that the software would be done by 2018! Only that it's irrelevant even if the software is done by then.
You seem very caught up in getting a "gotcha" out of people.
Again, you keep quoting timelines by Elon without quoting the accompanying conditions for that time line. The actual definition of L5 (legal or SAE, which may not be the same) vs his conditions are not necessarily the same.
Here's what he said back in the press conference on January 10, 2016 held after that tweet (in the same press conference he said the summon prediction "might be slightly optimistic"):
"in that timeframe of 24 to 36 months, it will be able to drive on virtually all roads at a safety level significantly better than human."
Putting aside that this puts a timeline of January 2018 to January 2019, there's a weasel word right there that does not match the SAE definition (which say "all" roads and conditions, not "virtually all" roads). Let's say the car by the time still can't handle certain private access dirt roads. That doesn't match the SAE definition, but someone can reasonably say it matches Elon's definition. Would you say Elon met his promise or not?
As for SAE vs legal being the same. I disagree. I'll use some examples.
Let's say a lax state (like Arizona for Ubers late 2016 move, or maybe Michigan, Florida) has laws that allows Tesla to release software to customers to summon anywhere in that state by then, but no other state does. Or maybe California does, but New York doesn't. The cars however are SAE L5. Would you say he met his promise or not?
Let's say, when the final laws are drafted, they require lidar or at least non-visual 360 degree detection (neither of which the FSD hardware match). Or let's say they require testing demonstrating 2x, 5x or 10x the safety of humans (while the car is only at 1.5x at the point). The cars are not legally L5 (not legally allowed to operate without a driver), but matches SAE's L5 definition. Would you say he met his promise or not?
Then there's the other issue of verifying if they meet SAE L5 in the first place. How can it be verified the car's software is SAE L5 if the laws don't allow consumers to use it by then (and thus for independent testers to verify in various conditions)? If Tesla just makes an announcement that they accomplished this and maybe just show some videos (but doesn't release the software due to regulatory reasons) would you believe them and say they met their promises?
These little details matter, and I'm fairly certain you will nitpick them to death when the time comes.
lol wut? we will know when your Tesla doesn't try to kill u every 1-10 miles. no one will announce they have level 5, they either deploy or they have nothing. You keep going on about this regulatory nonsense, looks like this will be the card you play come 2018 when tesla yet again fails to deliver.