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MobilEye's approach

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by lunitiks, Mar 26, 2017.

  1. lunitiks

    lunitiks Cool James & Black Teacher

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    Marketing stunt. Will be useless unless the lidar-cars keep driving for ever and ever, everywhere. I can't see how they can get away without vision REM / fleet learning, which is cheap/free and constantly updated
     
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  2. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Well, I wouldn't write it off until the reviews come in to see how it actually does (maybe with some time passed so some parts may be outdated). Really depends on how dependent it is on the map.
     
  3. lunitiks

    lunitiks Cool James & Black Teacher

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    The maps are for redundancy, so the car is dependent on them in that regard. Kind of sucks to have a back up-map that's several months or even years old.. but yes let's wait and see
     
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  4. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    It will be updated by the same company. Also dont forget GM already agreed to REM. They are the only automaker whose plans no one knows other than them saying self driving will be here sooner than you think.
     
  5. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    Yea GM is working with HERE. and I assume they will continue to keep the US and Canada highways updated for super cruise but then for future autonomous vehicle projects as well.

    Also, I know GM was participating in REM but that was over a year ago when they said that. And now companies are signing official contracts with REM: Nissan, BMW, VW, but not GM yet. I am wondering is it possible GM has changed their mind and is no going for these Lidar maps with HERE?

    I hope not anyways, GM cars with REM would be great for REM in US. I bet GM still is they just haven't officially signed on a contract yet.
     
  6. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    nah I believe GM is definitely using REM. unlike other partnership which are currently just "announcements" or "commitments" even if you call that contracts.

    GM is actually actively trying to "deploy" rem leveraging their Onstar system as of 2016. which is different from saying you will "use" rem.

    http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2016/Jan/0105-onstar.html

    also GM uses GeoDigital not HERE maps. Mercedes is the one using HERE maps.

    Inside the mind of Cadillac's Super Cruise

     
  7. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    Hmm, thats odd. A representative from GM told me they were using HERE maps for super cruise. He must have been mistaken.


    And about REM, I am not talking about announcements or commitments. I am talking about definitive signed contracts.

    VW: Swarm data paves way for autonomous driving: Volkswagen and Mobileye sign agreement - volkswagen-media-services.com

    BMW: Crowd sourcing for automated driving: BMW Group and Mobileye agree to generate new kind of sensor data.

    Nissan: Mobileye N.V. - Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping with Nissan


    GM has not yet signed an agreement like this, like these automakers have. Starting in 2018 cars from these automakers will begin building mobileye Roadbook. I hope GM cars will participate as well, and it looks as if they will.
     
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  8. lunitiks

    lunitiks Cool James & Black Teacher

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    Well that settles it, then. Seems like they're all on the right path
     
  9. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    That seems to be the case. However I am concerned.... for L3, L4 cars there must be map data. So thats fine for taxis in major cities and maybe for freeways as well for personal cars. But I want personal cars in a few years to be L3/ L4 for many environments and situations outside of freeways and major cities. I see the biggest bottle neck for this is the map data, is expensive to make and to update and for suburban areas, and most cities, there simply wont be maps, which means not autonomous driving. :(

    However, mobileye Rem could solve this problem by crowd-sourcing data. Which is great I was excited for this....
    However, lately it seems all major manufacturers are jumping on the Nvidia Drive PX 2 bandwagon, and leaving mobileye. Tesla, Audi, Toyota, Mercedes, Ford, Volvo.. I think that leaves BMW and and maybe Nissan still in the Mobileye camp. And not sure about GMs plans. And don't get me wrong I think the drive px 2 is great, hope to work on one myself soon. And I think drive px 2 will definitely pave the way for the first wave of autonomous vehicles. But the downside is, these vehicles will not have mobileye rem maps, and will not help create them. Which means no autonomous vehicles outside of freeways and major cities for now .

    Unless, some of these automakers build vehicles with Drive PX 2 and mobileye chips... but don't know if thats going to happen.

    I know Tesla is probably trying to make their own equivalent of mobileye REM from their own fleet. Which will work great in many areas, but in areas where Tesla cars aren't around... then Tesla cars won't be able to drive autonomously. (apart from EAP stuff)
     
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  10. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    Well most of these companies using NVIDIA Drive PX 2 / Xavier are also using mobileye (for vision atleast) for they fully self drivig platform. Audi and Volvo for example.

    The ones that don't like Toyota, Mercedes and Ford are laughably behind in self driving and will be the very last to have a SDC if ever.

    Toyota and Ford doesn't even have a current L2 system. Ford first L2 system is dated for 2019, that shows you how behind they are.

    No one should get caught up in these "2020/2021" announcements because only a very few companies can hit it. Whether its L4 Urban or Highway.

    Google, Nissan, GM, Volvo, Audi
     
  11. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    #131 Snuffysasa, May 26, 2017
    Last edited: May 26, 2017

    I agree they may be behind. However, Ford and Toyota are simply just deciding to skip L2 and L3 I thought. I know ford is skipping L3, and Toyota skipping L2 and L3.

    Ford does plan to have driverless taxi service operational in 2021... That is not very far behind. "driverless, no steering wheel, and no pedals" 2021 is on par with BMW, and just 1 year behind Nissan and Audi... But Nissan and Audi cars in 2020 will most likely not be ready fro driverless-capable. Well, maybe for Nissan taxi services with SAM.


    Anyways, yea I guess you are right, like Volvo is using Drive PX 2 and mobileye. I didn't realize that Audi is, but I guess it makes sense if they are.

    Are you saying that this car: Audi and NVIDIA team up to bring fully automated driving to the roads starting in 2020 accelerated with artificial intelligence | Audi USA

    will use mobileye chips along side the Drive PX 2?


    "Google, Nissan, GM, Volvo, Audi" These are the companies you believe can hit L4 in 2020/2021 timeframe?

    I agree with you, but did you mean to leave out: Tesla, Nio, Lucid, BMW, Ford, Mercedez, Baidu(with Chinese auto partners), nuTonomoy, Uber. I guess I wouldn't be surprised if these companies have L4 vehicles on the roads in someway. by 2021.

    And even other companies like Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, FCA, they are very behind. But they could just buy the technology from others, like a tier 1 Delphi or Bosch, or buy the technology from Waymo, or other company.

    And while I agree with you these Asian companies, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, are behind, I also think they are just more secretive and don't make claims and promises like others do.
     
  12. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    Mobileye Autonomous Car 360 Movie
     
  13. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    #133 Bladerskb, May 26, 2017
    Last edited: May 26, 2017
    “Toyota’s main objective is safety, so it will not be developing a driverless car,” Seigo Kuzumaki, Toyota’s deputy chief safety technology officer, said during a conference.

    Toyota—of All Companies—Defends Drivers, Says It Won’t Build a Fully Autonomous Car

    Toyota is definition of clueless, they are not skipping L2 or L3, they don't have L2 or L3.

    Now they are saying 2020 for L4, lol give me a break.

    Neither Ford nor Toyota will have anykind of L4 in 2020 or 2021. You have to understand we are roughly about 2 from 2020.
    2020 is not some long time away. Remember that cars that go into production take about 2 years of testing. A L4 car would need redundancy not only in sensors but in computer system, steering and braking. That entire system must be ready to be pre-production tested in 2018 to even make a 2020 date. This include the platform the system will run on, the exact playment of sensors, and the exact number of sensors. Toyota is still playing russian roullette with their sensors. They are not even close. They are probably 10 years away from L3 even.

    This same thing applies to software. Look at the disnegagement from CA DMV. You have to have some kind of progress to even consider 2020/2021. GM for example has cruise which as of last month of 2016 are about 1 in 300 miles and rapidly increasing. Will probably be at a 1 in 1,000-5,000 by the end of the year give or take. Google ofcourse is at 1 in 5,000. Will probably eclipse 10k by years end. My point is, anyone who is trying to deploy something at 2020/2021 must have some progress right now.

    There's no magic button that toyota will push and be L4 in 2 years.

    You need the software and hardware mostly done now. The only people with the hardware are GM Cruise, Google Waymo, Volvo Drive Me and Audi.


    Tesla doesn't have the redundancy and sensors for any kind of L4.
    Tesla FSD development began late 2016, anyone who believes Elon will release a L5 that's better than humans with roughly only 1 years of full software development (2018) after their failure to match AP1 parity in 9 months is delusional.

    Nio will use mobileye but there is still alot of software/testing that must be written plus they don't even have a car yet.
    Lucid will use mobileye but doesn't even have a car yet.
    BMW will use mobileye, but will fall victim to the same thing, there's just not enough time to hit 2020/2021, you need your platform ready now.

    As the car industry calls it, "pencils down". You need to be pencils down by the end of 2017. You still can't be driving research cars with 20-30 sensors sticking out and aiming to release something in 2 years.

    Ford..no

    Mercedez is clueless, check their CA DMV report

    Baidu already sorta gave in

    nuTonomy...nope

    Uber...lol they are at 1 disengagement per mile

    True.

    Delphi for example who says they will have a system ready for OEM in 2019 is still struggling according to their CA DMV report.
    Same goes for Bocsh who is claiming L4 in 2020.

    Everyone is saying 2020 because others are too, you don't wanna say 2025 if others say 2020 cause then say bye bye to your investors, stocks, etc.

    The whole 2019/2020/2021 dates are just PR announcement. All these companies know that only one or two players will actually have any kind of L4 car in 2020. So when everyone fails, they can just blend in and say "see no one has it too".

    Google, Audi, Volvo and GM are the one who will have any kind of L4 system in 2020.

    When you look at these four systems, you see that everything they have in both software and hardware is mature. They have redundancy in sensors, steering, brakes and they have it in a production-like car (besides GM cruise, although their car looks very production like). They also have mature/maturing software.
     
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  14. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    Cool 360 video. I have not seen that yet.
    I will type up my responses to this later today:)
     
  15. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    I just noticed i left out Nissan. Who i also believe will have L4 Highway by 2020.
     
  16. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    So In general I agree with what you are saying. And most things I do agree with you.

    So first when someone says by 2020 or by 2021. To me that means by end of 2020 or by end of 2021. So that's 3.5 years away, or 4.5 years away. A pretty significantly long time.

    So I could spend a long time talking about the California DMV reports. But I am not, but basically they mean nothing to me. No measurement of progress.


    Toyota:
    That quote about not making a driverless car was in 2014. Toyotas stance has changed. Toyota is working towards a driverless car, and are going right to L4, because they do not feel L2 and L3 systems are safe, which is why they Are going straight to a system that can be driverless.

    They may be behind, and may not have L4 ready until after 2021 or longer. But I do know that Toyota is doing more than you think they are. They are very actively researching and developing a full autonomy,...even if they do take their time.

    "Now they are saying 2020 for L4, lol give me a break."
    Wait what? When have they said this ?!

    So I agree that L4 cars should have redundant sensors and redundant computing systems, and be fully fail operational.... however there are no laws that say they have to at this time. And I am not sure it will be required.

    So I don't thing there is anything stopping a company from releasing a L4 system without these. However I feel most will.

    Also I agree it takes 2+ years to test a car before going into production. So if a car wants to be released in 2020, it would basically need to be fully developed now. Or atleast the hardware does.


    Ford:
    Ford is also not releasing L2 and L3, for many complicated reasons, it does not mean they are behind. Just because a company has not released L2 systems doesn't mean they are behind for L4.
    I stand by this claim.

    Ford plans to have an L4 , driverless, taxi service in operation in 2021.
    This means they will only have to work in the cities they choose to operate in.

    I do know that for is also farther a long than you give them credit for.

    However I would not be surprised if this service gets delayed., but I do think 2021 is realistic.

    Tesla:

    I agree Tesla has no redundancy which isn't good. But that doesn't mean that they can't make their system L4. Unless a new law comes out and bans it.

    "Tesla FSD began in late 2016"
    This is simply not true. They have been working in it for longer.

    Tesla releasing L5 that's better than humans in 2018?
    I agree that is absolutely delusional!

    However Tesla building fully self driving on mapped roads with say 1 in 10 disengagements ? Absolutely possible.

    And also possible that Tesla will release that fully self driving as a L2 feature.

    Tesla getting those disengagements down to 1 in 1,000,000 or so with the hardware they have currently. I do think this is possible.
    Can they do it in 4.5 years ?
    I am not sure, but I do think they can.

    Nio:
    I know developers from Nio, they are testing now. The driving algorithms separate from mobileye. The developers talked to seemed convinced they will have L4 ready in 2019. Do I believe them? Eh I guess not. Mobileye seems to think they will be shipping L4 cars in 2019/2020, but of course they may not be activated at launch.

    Lucid:
    Same goes with Nio. Just because they don't have a car doesn't mean they can't start road testing with other vehicles.

    BMW:
    Not sure why you don't have faith in these guys. I think they have there hardware platform basically developed, sensors + mobileye Intel Delphi. Sure they still need to make part of the software on there side L4 ready. But they have 4.5 years.

    I agree you need pencils down by end of 2017, but that is for hardware. The software be continuously updates and fine tuned over the years, could be finished in 2021. And rolled out to production cars.

    By finished I mean fully validated, and then they would have to road test millions of miles. But with a large fleet, it doesn't take long.

    Mercedes:
    Yea I don't know much about them. But they are working with Bosch. And I feel that L4 system could be ready 2021-2022.
    Again Cai DMV report means nothing to me.

    Baidu:
    Gave in?
    What no, they are sharing their autonomous driving technology to the Chinese OEMs. So that those oems can make L4 autonomous cars, without having to do extensive development and testing.


    NuTonomy:
    Why not ?
    I think they plan on launching a driverless L4 service in Singapore next year. Sure may get delayed, but will before 2020.

    Uber:
    Yea Uber is pretty laughable at this point, but they have only just gotten started. Though to be honest I don't have much faith in them, and there autonomous division may shut down all together after so many engineers leaving.


    Delphi:
    Again, those California DMV reports don't mean anything to me.
    So Delphi is creating a turnkey solution that they will do the 2 years of testing on. Delphi is starting a taxi service fleet in a few months. So by 2019 they could have 2 years of testing with many million miles.

    This solution with sensors, computing hardware, and software will be mostly ready to go for automakers. Sure of course an automaker will still need integrate it into their vehicle and do 'some' testing. But not nearly as much.

    I think any OEM that has no progress, say FCA, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai. Could by the solution and only need to do a few months of development and testing, before they can produce L4 vehicles.

    Bosch:
    I am not sure, also I don't know if they are making a complete solution with software like Delphi is.
    With their partnership with Mercedes, I do not know of Bosch is developing testing algorithms or Mercedes is, but either way. I think they could produce L4 cars around 2022. Later than others because Xavier is not ready yet, and the Bosch solution won't be ready til 2020 or later.

    Nissan:

    So with Nissan do you see them releasing a L3 system next year for highways.

    And In 2020 produce a vehicle, that has 1 mode for L4 on highways. And another mode for "intersection autonomy" near fully self driving, but as a L2 feature?

    Okay sorry for long post haha.
     
  17. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    They are releasing a L2 traffic jam assist in 2019/2020..they are just that behind

    Timeline: The future of driverless cars, from Audi to Volvo
    Ford to Debut Traffic Jam Assist, Fully Autonomous Car in Four Years

    Toyota

    They are working on L2 systems...they are just even more clueless than ford.

    31m


    And yes they do say 2020.

    Toyota exec: 'We are not even close' to fully self-driving cars

    "Pratt said Toyota is starting with Level 2 autonomy because there is still a long road ahead before cars reach Level 5 autonomy, which is when vehicles can completely drive themselves in any situation."

    Toyota Aims to Make Self-Driving Cars by 2020
     
  18. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    Ford
    So Ford launching their first L2 traffic jam assist in 2020 is no indication of their progress of a L4 autonomous car.

    That said I agree ford may be quite behind for L4 autonomy.

    Ford does have a fleet of 90 autonomous cars already on the roads testing.
    I see no reason why they can't have an L4 taxi service in certain areas.

    Ford says 2025+ is when they will actually sell L4 cars to general public.

    Toyota:
    Toyota made it clear that they are working on 2 parallel development tracks:

    Guardian: takes over to save your life, like AEB on steroids. Toyota is spending a lot on this, but I do not call this autonomous, I do not even call this L2.

    And
    Chaffueur: fully autonomous, L4. Which they are working on.

    Toyota says: "no body is anywhere close to fully self driving cars". Including themselves.
    However Toyota is talking about L5 in this context.

    And I agree with Toyota, I think it will be many decades before we see a true L5 vehicle.

    That link about Toyota aiming for 2020 is back in 2015. And who knows maybe they still are. Maybe they will have a L4 highway system ready in 2020.

    Toyota believes a L4 system on highways or other is safe. Toyota believes L2 and L3 on highways is not safe, which is why they are not developing them.
     
  19. lunitiks

    lunitiks Cool James & Black Teacher

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    • Funny x 1
  20. Snuffysasa

    Snuffysasa Member

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    Can't tell if you are making a joke or not.

    We are definitely less than 2 years away from safe autonomous driving ...

    But decades away from L5
     
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