Cool 360 video. I have not seen that yet.
I will type up my responses to this later today
I just noticed i left out Nissan. Who i also believe will have L4 Highway by 2020.
So In general I agree with what you are saying. And most things I do agree with you.
So first when someone says by 2020 or by 2021. To me that means by end of 2020 or by end of 2021. So that's 3.5 years away, or 4.5 years away. A pretty significantly long time.
So I could spend a long time talking about the California DMV reports. But I am not, but basically they mean nothing to me. No measurement of progress.
Toyota:
That quote about not making a driverless car was in 2014. Toyotas stance has changed. Toyota is working towards a driverless car, and are going right to L4, because they do not feel L2 and L3 systems are safe, which is why they Are going straight to a system that can be driverless.
They may be behind, and may not have L4 ready until after 2021 or longer. But I do know that Toyota is doing more than you think they are. They are very actively researching and developing a full autonomy,...even if they do take their time.
"Now they are saying 2020 for L4, lol give me a break."
Wait what? When have they said this ?!
So I agree that L4 cars should have redundant sensors and redundant computing systems, and be fully fail operational.... however there are no laws that say they have to at this time. And I am not sure it will be required.
So I don't thing there is anything stopping a company from releasing a L4 system without these. However I feel most will.
Also I agree it takes 2+ years to test a car before going into production. So if a car wants to be released in 2020, it would basically need to be fully developed now. Or atleast the hardware does.
Ford:
Ford is also not releasing L2 and L3, for many complicated reasons, it does not mean they are behind. Just because a company has not released L2 systems doesn't mean they are behind for L4.
I stand by this claim.
Ford plans to have an L4 , driverless, taxi service in operation in 2021.
This means they will only have to work in the cities they choose to operate in.
I do know that for is also farther a long than you give them credit for.
However I would not be surprised if this service gets delayed., but I do think 2021 is realistic.
Tesla:
I agree Tesla has no redundancy which isn't good. But that doesn't mean that they can't make their system L4. Unless a new law comes out and bans it.
"Tesla FSD began in late 2016"
This is simply not true. They have been working in it for longer.
Tesla releasing L5 that's better than humans in 2018?
I agree that is absolutely delusional!
However Tesla building fully self driving on mapped roads with say 1 in 10 disengagements ? Absolutely possible.
And also possible that Tesla will release that fully self driving as a L2 feature.
Tesla getting those disengagements down to 1 in 1,000,000 or so with the hardware they have currently. I do think this is possible.
Can they do it in 4.5 years ?
I am not sure, but I do think they can.
Nio:
I know developers from Nio, they are testing now. The driving algorithms separate from mobileye. The developers talked to seemed convinced they will have L4 ready in 2019. Do I believe them? Eh I guess not. Mobileye seems to think they will be shipping L4 cars in 2019/2020, but of course they may not be activated at launch.
Lucid:
Same goes with Nio. Just because they don't have a car doesn't mean they can't start road testing with other vehicles.
BMW:
Not sure why you don't have faith in these guys. I think they have there hardware platform basically developed, sensors + mobileye Intel Delphi. Sure they still need to make part of the software on there side L4 ready. But they have 4.5 years.
I agree you need pencils down by end of 2017, but that is for hardware. The software be continuously updates and fine tuned over the years, could be finished in 2021. And rolled out to production cars.
By finished I mean fully validated, and then they would have to road test millions of miles. But with a large fleet, it doesn't take long.
Mercedes:
Yea I don't know much about them. But they are working with Bosch. And I feel that L4 system could be ready 2021-2022.
Again Cai DMV report means nothing to me.
Baidu:
Gave in?
What no, they are sharing their autonomous driving technology to the Chinese OEMs. So that those oems can make L4 autonomous cars, without having to do extensive development and testing.
NuTonomy:
Why not ?
I think they plan on launching a driverless L4 service in Singapore next year. Sure may get delayed, but will before 2020.
Uber:
Yea Uber is pretty laughable at this point, but they have only just gotten started. Though to be honest I don't have much faith in them, and there autonomous division may shut down all together after so many engineers leaving.
Delphi:
Again, those California DMV reports don't mean anything to me.
So Delphi is creating a turnkey solution that they will do the 2 years of testing on. Delphi is starting a taxi service fleet in a few months. So by 2019 they could have 2 years of testing with many million miles.
This solution with sensors, computing hardware, and software will be mostly ready to go for automakers. Sure of course an automaker will still need integrate it into their vehicle and do 'some' testing. But not nearly as much.
I think any OEM that has no progress, say FCA, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai. Could by the solution and only need to do a few months of development and testing, before they can produce L4 vehicles.
Bosch:
I am not sure, also I don't know if they are making a complete solution with software like Delphi is.
With their partnership with Mercedes, I do not know of Bosch is developing testing algorithms or Mercedes is, but either way. I think they could produce L4 cars around 2022. Later than others because Xavier is not ready yet, and the Bosch solution won't be ready til 2020 or later.
Nissan:
So with Nissan do you see them releasing a L3 system next year for highways.
And In 2020 produce a vehicle, that has 1 mode for L4 on highways. And another mode for "intersection autonomy" near fully self driving, but as a L2 feature?
Okay sorry for long post haha.