JeffK
Well-Known Member
I'd say the SW limited 60 kWh is likely more accurate than the former "60" kWh battery
I agree, so the the average battery capacity would be even higher.
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I go back and forth about what market segments Tesla is likely to go for, and in the end I think I agree with the above. It will be a few years before Tesla is big enough to go below $35,000, and I don't think Tesla will ever compromise on quality enough to build a real econobox, but I think they will build a Civic-class electric car priced at perhaps $25,000. Batteries will always make an electric car more expensive to build than a stinker. But $25,000 would let a lot more people into the EV market, especially when that car becomes available used.
I remember Elon recently stating that cheaper car (than M3) probably won't be needed.
You all already dismissed this statement or forgot about it?
There are two ways of getting cheaper:
- building a cheaper car
- time-sharing a nicer car
FDS enables efficient time-sharing.
You all already dismissed this statement or forgot about it?
There are two ways of getting cheaper:
- building a cheaper car
- time-sharing a nicer car
FDS enables efficient time-sharing.
Mo City
Active Member
When you consider the future Model Y and pickup truck, I don't think Tesla will be able to ramp up enough production to meet demand for a very very long time. Therefore, no need to even consider a cheaper car.
The 373,000 pre-orders killed the notion of a cheaper car. If someone asked Elon directly, I think he would admit that is true.
The 373,000 pre-orders killed the notion of a cheaper car. If someone asked Elon directly, I think he would admit that is true.
Anyway, back to the thread topic:
Battery: 90 with software locks at 75 and 55.
-Flame suit on-
JK!!
Battery: 90 with software locks at 75 and 55.
-Flame suit on-
JK!!
If they actually go forward with the Y and a pickup in the next few years I would agree. It would be some time before they would think about a cheaper sedan.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
OK guys......Here's another voice of reason.
Has Toyota ever come out and said: we're going to limit the fuel economy of the Corolla or Camry, to force you to one-up to the Camry or Avalon?
Nope.
Stop thinking of "range" as the factor. You're getting "too EV" for this thought exercise. Think like ICE OEM's do. small car, midsize, full size, SUV, luxury sedan.
Those are the market segments Tesla is looking to slot into, it just so happens that all of their vehicles share the same drivetrain technology.
The only limit on pack size will be what physically fits. Elon has said the Model 3 will be "<100kWh", which is fine. It's a smaller/lighter vehicle.
If a Model 3 can get similar range with an 85 or 90 kWh pack, none of us should be making a peep in the complaint department about that.
Has Toyota ever come out and said: we're going to limit the fuel economy of the Corolla or Camry, to force you to one-up to the Camry or Avalon?
Nope.
Stop thinking of "range" as the factor. You're getting "too EV" for this thought exercise. Think like ICE OEM's do. small car, midsize, full size, SUV, luxury sedan.
Those are the market segments Tesla is looking to slot into, it just so happens that all of their vehicles share the same drivetrain technology.
The only limit on pack size will be what physically fits. Elon has said the Model 3 will be "<100kWh", which is fine. It's a smaller/lighter vehicle.
If a Model 3 can get similar range with an 85 or 90 kWh pack, none of us should be making a peep in the complaint department about that.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Exactly, the smaller buildings are likely for in-house parts production. Having them on site means lower logistic costs. This has nothing to with the amount of capital Tesla has.
Agreed, I'm just saying that, as of right now, and for probably at least the next several years, there are not plans for them to produce a less expensive car. Now, if no other manufacturers try to fill that niche, they may well change their mind. But, as for it being necessary for Tesla's survival, I strongly doubt that.
I'm surprised no one has suggested the possibility of a small-delta software lock near base price to stick it in the Bolt:
Base - 35k - 55KWh (sw locked) range: 230 mi (Save $2500 vs Bolt!)
Unlocked: $37.5k - 60KWh range: 250 mi (Better range than Bolt for same money!)
Bigger pack: $45k - 70KWh (AWD) : 300mi (additional mass cancelled by 2nd motor)
Still only 2 pack sizes to manage in the factory
Base - 35k - 55KWh (sw locked) range: 230 mi (Save $2500 vs Bolt!)
Unlocked: $37.5k - 60KWh range: 250 mi (Better range than Bolt for same money!)
Bigger pack: $45k - 70KWh (AWD) : 300mi (additional mass cancelled by 2nd motor)
Still only 2 pack sizes to manage in the factory
Not that I've seen - people suggesting the 60/75 action from the S, and then people talking about how that's way too much free battery to ship in low-margin base cars. Never saw anyone talk about hitting those specific price points...
JeffK
Well-Known Member
The problem is, since GM is selling less overall volume, they will have the tax credit for longer. Once the Tesla tax credits run out, many people are going to see the Bolt as virtually $30k with 238 miles range while the Model 3 will still be $35k and potentially fewer miles of range.
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Software lock means Tesla will waste money and have no warranty that owner will buy it.
And, most likely, software lock would mean much better performance within locked range
(this includes SuperCharging speed and regen at 100%, and also less degradation).
Therefore it will be very popular choice (and unlocking will not be popular).
And software lock means dead weight (EPA wise).
All we need is two battery sizes. Few years later Tesla will offer 5kWh better packs anyway.
Not sure will it be true for 55kWh model, more likely 55kWh will lose some weight and
gain range that way.
KISS after all.
For hints that EM is interested in producing a less-expensive car than the Model 3 see: Elon Musk: Tesla Plotting Gen 4 Model That Everyone Can Afford and see note 309 in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
"down the road" is one of those things with no real timeframe... just sometime in the future. I agree that he may be interested, but it could very well be a decade from now for all we know.
btw the wiki "quote" is from the same talk and the sentence they put in quotes was never actually spoken to my knowledge.
Let's also note the talk was from April 21st, 2016
Although, here's a quote from the Master Plan part deux July 20th, 2016
Elon might feel that a smaller, cheaper, car is an inevitability, but not necessarily in the plans.
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ModelNforNerd
Active Member
he's spreading himself thin.
he's wavered on the "very" affordable car. he completely left off the new Roadster on his Part Deux....the guy's got a lot on his plate.
3Victoria
Active Member
Actually, GM and Tesla will run out at similar times.
Since Tesla is likely to have a larger volume of cars per quarter, many more TM3s are likely to get the rebate than the GM Bolts.
Chart is from: When Will The $7,500 US Credit Expire For The Tesla Model 3...And Everyone Else?
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