Wow. I disagree with pretty much every thing you wrote here, though I understand why someone might see things your way. Allow me to go through this bit-by-bit...
The Model 3 costs twice as much as those cars. When their base prices rise to $27,500, it will be because of inflation which will push a car like the Model 3 to $65,000.
As I noted elsewhere, the days of sub-$20,000 new cars is coming to an end... SOON. You don't have to believe it, but it's true. It is far more likely that a version of the Model ≡ will go down to $25,000 than it is the base car will go up to $65,000. In fact, I'd guess the BMW 3-Series will have a base price over $65,000 -- to hide from Civic, Accord, Corolla, Accord, and Model ≡ first. Just as BMW, AUDI, and Mercedes-Benz vehicles initially went further upmarket to escape Lexus and Infiniti 25 years ago. Without ICE issues holding them back, Tesla will not have to follow suit.
The Civic, Corolla, Accord, and Camry are not much different from each other. And none of them is available as a fully electric vehicle. There is bountiful crossover in the price points of these cars already. Though the average sale price for new cars is over $33,000... The majority of new cars sold are between $22,000 and $25,000.
The Camry went down in U.S. Sales in 2016 relative to 2015. Many will point to the popularity of SUVs as the culprit. But many times during the year the Corolla threatened to take the lead from its sibling, the Camry. Those product lines will have to be adjusted in the marketplace. So Camry may well supplant Avalon and move upmarket a bit to give Corolla some elbow room.
You cannot say that when a Civic costs $27,500 a Model 3 will still cost $35,000.
Sure I can. Watch me.
Tesla may well decide not to compete in the cheap-car market, but a Civic-class stinker will always cost half as much as a Model-3-class EV until there's a carbon tax that makes a stinker uneconomical to operate.
Nope. I say the Model ≡ is already affordable for the majority of those looking to purchase a new car. The total cost of ownership will be better than a Civic or Corolla. And the gap between their initial price points will diminish, not increase.
And while the used-car market will eventually enable people who cannot afford $35,000 to get an electric car, there are still people who want a new car at half that price, and used-car buyers who want a car significantly less expensive than that.
25 years ago a Mustang, Camaro, and Corvette all pretty much cost half as much as they do today. So what? People always want to pay less. If the Accord and Camry each started at $11,000 instead of $22,000 they would still be the leaders in their segment, but their Sales would not double.
There will continue to be a significant market for a $15,000 or $20,000 electric car.
No. There won't be. Because no one is stupid enough to 'leave money on the table'. The only 'cheap' cars that outsell the top 15 passenger cars in the U.S. are used cars. Only one 'cheap' car appears among the top thirty sold here. One.
Tesla can certainly afford to leave that market to other makers.
Sure. Tesla can afford to not do stupid things. Tesla cannot afford to do stupid things.
But I've met plenty of people who would love to have an electric car, for whom a Model 3 is still way outside their price range.
And they can either get a nice, used, NISSAN LEAF, or they can lobby Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Chevrolet, or Ford to build a long range 'cheap' electric car... then sit back and watch what happens. HINT: Nothing will happen.
Batteries are not like integrated circuits. Batteries are improving slowly. The price per kWh will continue to decline, but it is not going to plummet.
It's a matter of perspective. There was a guy in 2014 that gave his professional opinion that Tesla was DOOMED because there was no way in [HECK] that batteries would drop below $178 per kWh prior to 2022-2024. When queried about that prediction, Elon Musk noted he would be 'very disappointed' if it took ten years for the cost of batteries to get that low. To those who believe the supposed 'expert', if Tesla's internal cost at the Gigafactory is much lower than GM's admitted $145 per kWh for BOLT, it will indeed constitute a relative plumetting of price point. A Tesla representative admitted their cost was below $190 per kWh already. Elon has consistently stated the Gigafactory would lower their cost by at least 30% from thr outset, and possibly up to 50% before long. That would mean $133 per kWh or less from thr very beginning. When you note that just three years ago most traditional automobile manufacturers were claiming costs upward of $500 per kWh, the costs that will become prevalent within the next two or three years will have fallen off a cliff.
They may be able to make superchargers a little bit faster, but the conductors needed for fast charging are humongous, and the cooling power is enormous. Superchargers are not going to get very much faster, and there is no need for them to do so. A bigger need is for superchargers on secondary roads. My one long road trip per year does not follow major highways. For me to ditch the stinker for that one trip, there would need to be superchargers in small cities off the major highways. I think that time will come, but it may be a decade or more away, and I'm old enough that I may not see it.
I hope for your sake you last the next five years or so. That way I can have the pleasure of saying, "I told you so!" But yeah, someone else has already posted a corrective link that proves the opposite of your opinion.
To have the Model S be twice the price planned is a significant departure. It became a luxury model instead of the M3. The original plan became:
1. Build sports car
2 Build luxury car
3. Build an affordable car.
4. Don't build an even more affordable car, create a car sharing network instead.
5. Same in both plans.
I think flexibility with business plans is good thing. Things never turn out exactly as planned.
The Tesla Model S 40 was the 'affordable car'. Nobody wanted it. So it went away. Compared to that, the Model ≡ is indeed the 'even more affordable' car. Tesla does not use the word 'luxury' to describe their products. They may acknowledge that third parties use the word, but they don't use it themselves. Pay attention and stop using revisionist history techniques.
