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ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I think you got it. I was mixing the total production in 2018 with the production rate of Model 3 at the end of 2018 - witch happens to be about the same number
So based off THIS......I can hold on to my hopes and dreams of getting my Model 3 before December 31st....barely.
I would place more faith on what was said in the shareholder letter since, I assume, it was reviewed and checked for accuracy and clarity. As opposed to what was spoken during the call which is not scripted and could very well be misleading.
Me too, I think it's a slim hope but I'm holding on to it!! And that would make the timing of the tax credit pretty convenient as well!!
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I've estimated that I'm roughly 75,000th in line globally, so the production ramp on US-delivered cars matters a lot....I can be from anywhere in early December to late January, if we are going by the language in the shareholders' letter.
I'm thinking that I'm, roughly, 40,000 in line, I'm really hoping for November or December. At this point though, just so long as it is before the end of the year, later would be fine so I can save more and pay off more debt.
Hi, everybody. I have checked what the total production would be in 2018 if I adjusted the Model 3 production numbers to 5,000 units in the last week of 2017 and 10,000 units in the last week of 2018. It turns out, in that case, my table shows 501,800 units for 2018 which is very close to the expected 500K. You can see it here in a column called "S+X+3+Roadster Global". Therefore yes the numbers work out much better this way and I was wrong. I have updated the calculations.
To summarize, the error happened because I was using 500,000 production rate when exiting 2018 instead of 500,000 units total production in 2018.
An interesting detail about the latest calculation is related to tax credits. If they hit the 5,000 Model 3 units per week target by the end of 2017 as planned, that would mean 206,000 Teslas delivered in the USA at the end of 2017. So we are now back to uncertainty in terms of tax credits. Full credits might last until March 31 2018, instead of June 30, 2018.
To summarize, the error happened because I was using 500,000 production rate when exiting 2018 instead of 500,000 units total production in 2018.
An interesting detail about the latest calculation is related to tax credits. If they hit the 5,000 Model 3 units per week target by the end of 2017 as planned, that would mean 206,000 Teslas delivered in the USA at the end of 2017. So we are now back to uncertainty in terms of tax credits. Full credits might last until March 31 2018, instead of June 30, 2018.
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ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Are you considering the fact that the first person from the general public was likely 10,000th or so in line? (Employees got first dibs)
When I say I'm ~75,000th globally, I understand that's chronologically, so yes....I will be getting my car before the 1st non-US reservation holders.
So, in all likelihood, as a non-owner who reserved at 10:30am in-store on March 31st (typo earlier....not the 30th....my bad), I'm likely closer to 30,000th in the Production Queue....in which case, maybe December isn't such a pipe dream after all.
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ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Your new numbers have me taking delivery Feb 9, 2018......
My (admittedly biased and almost 0% scientific) numbers have me getting my car in mid to late December 2017.
No offense, but I hope you're wrong.
I based it on the numbers reported by people who saw their reservation ID when it was available in the source code. Mine showed 500K or something (I'm assuming some sort of glitch there since my myTesla pages still says 3/31) but I reserved at the same time you did and others had said their numbers indicated they were about 40K or so.
I reserved at about the same time and I also think/hope he's wrong!!Your new numbers have me taking delivery Feb 9, 2018......
My (admittedly biased and almost 0% scientific) numbers have me getting my car in mid to late December 2017.
No offense, but I hope you're wrong.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I reserved at about the same time and I also think/hope he's wrong!!
According to @Troy 's estimations, I'm 57,332 globally, 7,086 for my region.
I'm comfortably within range for the full tax credit, but I'd like to sneak into 2017.
My wife's small startup was purchased by one of those Silicon Valley companies.....and to keep her onboard, her compensation package was shifted to lean heavily towards money marked as "bonus"....which is taxed at a 30% rate.
Any Tax Credit I can get to recoup that money will help, preferably in this tax year.
But....her bonus payouts are scheduled for the next 4 years....so it won't kill us to wait until 2018 to claim the EV Credit.
For the Model S, how long a wait is it from configuration stage to delivery stage? Is there a stage in between those two besides the financing/leasing approval / arrangement?
Sounds like 400,000 of us will be getting our M3's by mid-2018, at least according to My Tesla, since that's the date for anyone making a reservation today.
Sounds like 400,000 of us will be getting our M3's by mid-2018, at least according to My Tesla, since that's the date for anyone making a reservation today.
Posted in a couple other threads as I searched for the appropriate place to post it:
The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal; but would the 200,000th (or moreover the 300,000th or 400,000th) person in line get theirs first, based on being on the west or east coast, in the US? I would think that they would have to say something like:
- Delivery of all employees cars up to 25k
- Delivery of all west coat cars up to 50k
- Delivery of all east coast cars up to 75k
- And so on, and so forth
As this would at least given some semblance of respect to the queue and priority sequence within which people ordered.
Thoughts?
The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal; but would the 200,000th (or moreover the 300,000th or 400,000th) person in line get theirs first, based on being on the west or east coast, in the US? I would think that they would have to say something like:
- Delivery of all employees cars up to 25k
- Delivery of all west coat cars up to 50k
- Delivery of all east coast cars up to 75k
- And so on, and so forth
As this would at least given some semblance of respect to the queue and priority sequence within which people ordered.
Thoughts?
melindav
☰ 2018
You know tesla currently has 30k employees plus another 5k at SpaceX, right... chance of over 70% reserving a Model 3 is crazy high. I'd earlier seen estimates closer to 5k employee reservations, which is still nearly 15%.
Not to mention that historically, California alone had been over half of all US sales. I think the straight 50/50 west/east is not realistic to the actual volume across the country.
Apologies as I should have said I pulled the numbers out of thin air, and didn't really put any thought or reason into them, but the points about number of employees and California saturation are very fair.
With only 35k employees or so there is a natural limit there, but with California having approximately 40 million citizens, I would be peeved if reservation # 400,000 in California would get their Model 3 before I get mine at ~105,000. Time will tell but this is likely the thing that makes me most anxious!
Hi, @Pieter Knispel,
In the last 4 quarters, California sales were 24.2% of Tesla's global car sales. Let's say Model 3 reservation count will be 500,000 units when production starts in Sep 2017. That means 121,000 California reservations. In the last shareholder letter 3 days ago, Tesla said Model 3 volume production will start in Sep 2017 and they plan to reach 5,000 Model 3 units/week before the end of 2017 and 10,000 units/week before the end of 2018. Based on this data, producing all 121,000 Model 3's for California would take until 4 April 2018. That's a long time.
Basically, that would be the worst-case scenario for you. However, I don't think it's going to work that way. I think only initial deliveries will be to California based on the following twitter exchange. The cleantechnica website understood the issue the same way. In this article, they wrote: "West Coast orders will only take priority for launch orders".
Here are the production start dates the estimator uses for different regions in the USA. These were updated after the latest conference call 3 days ago.
USA, California employee cars, 16 Sep 2017
USA, California non-employee cars, 23 Oct 2017
USA, Pacific excluding CA, 6 Nov 2017
USA, Mountain Time, 20 Nov 2017
USA, Central Time, 4 Dec 2017
USA, Eastern Time, 18 Dec 2017
In the last 4 quarters, California sales were 24.2% of Tesla's global car sales. Let's say Model 3 reservation count will be 500,000 units when production starts in Sep 2017. That means 121,000 California reservations. In the last shareholder letter 3 days ago, Tesla said Model 3 volume production will start in Sep 2017 and they plan to reach 5,000 Model 3 units/week before the end of 2017 and 10,000 units/week before the end of 2018. Based on this data, producing all 121,000 Model 3's for California would take until 4 April 2018. That's a long time.
Basically, that would be the worst-case scenario for you. However, I don't think it's going to work that way. I think only initial deliveries will be to California based on the following twitter exchange. The cleantechnica website understood the issue the same way. In this article, they wrote: "West Coast orders will only take priority for launch orders".
Here are the production start dates the estimator uses for different regions in the USA. These were updated after the latest conference call 3 days ago.
USA, California employee cars, 16 Sep 2017
USA, California non-employee cars, 23 Oct 2017
USA, Pacific excluding CA, 6 Nov 2017
USA, Mountain Time, 20 Nov 2017
USA, Central Time, 4 Dec 2017
USA, Eastern Time, 18 Dec 2017
melindav
☰ 2018
How "launch orders" are defined will made a difference. Some think that means in store before noon, some think in store prior to the event, or any on 3/31 in store, or 3/31 in store & online, March 31 & April 1st, the first weekend thru April 3rd or thru April, etc...
Personally, I think it will be thru the weekend with around 270k reservations, minus however many of those Tesla weeded out or otherwise canceled - lets say 5k, minus 10% for a second reservation (Tesla having said one would come in the initial wave and the second reservation would follow) brings the first weekend 'first' car reservations to about 238,500~.
I started to look at breaking this down by CA, West-Non-CA, Mtn, Central, Eastern but noticed your spreadsheet is not basing CA on the 24.4% you listed here, but 28.5% of global (using a reservation placed this morning at 12:00a). how are you calculating the percentage for each region? (West-non CA 3.8%, Mtn 5.5%, Central 7%, East 21.2% from spreadsheet).
Using these percentages, and my assumptions of the first weekend reservations reduced to single reservations and the weeding:
totalling 157,409 US first weekend, first reservation cars. if all are done under the 5000/week plan, that is 31 weeks.
CA 67,972 - 13.5 weeks
West 9,063 - 2 weeks
Mountain 13,117 - 2.5 weeks
Central 16,695 - 3.5 weeks
East 50,562 - 10 weeks
West 9,063 - 2 weeks
Mountain 13,117 - 2.5 weeks
Central 16,695 - 3.5 weeks
East 50,562 - 10 weeks
all of course a WAG at this point
Hi, @Model 3,
The 22 Feb 2016 shareholder letter says "Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September". Therefore I have ignored the low volume production until Sep 2017.
Let's say 99% of parts arrive on time on 1st July 2017 but they are missing 1% of parts. It will take 2 months until the other 1% arrives. What are they going to do during these two months? Simple, they will produce those missing parts themselves at low volume to test the production line. Elon talked about this during the latest conference call 3 days ago.
Also, I'm not expecting that many employee cars. The reason Tesla is producing employee cars first is because if there is a hardware fault, they can fix it quicker if all initial deliveries are in California. Therefore only Tesla and SpaceX employees in California (or potentially in West Coast) count but not all employees worldwide. Wikipedia says 6000 employees at Fremont. SpaceX has 5,000. They have service centers and stores. My best guess is 7,000-8,000 employee cars will be delivered before they start making customer cars.
The 22 Feb 2016 shareholder letter says "Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September". Therefore I have ignored the low volume production until Sep 2017.
Let's say 99% of parts arrive on time on 1st July 2017 but they are missing 1% of parts. It will take 2 months until the other 1% arrives. What are they going to do during these two months? Simple, they will produce those missing parts themselves at low volume to test the production line. Elon talked about this during the latest conference call 3 days ago.
Also, I'm not expecting that many employee cars. The reason Tesla is producing employee cars first is because if there is a hardware fault, they can fix it quicker if all initial deliveries are in California. Therefore only Tesla and SpaceX employees in California (or potentially in West Coast) count but not all employees worldwide. Wikipedia says 6000 employees at Fremont. SpaceX has 5,000. They have service centers and stores. My best guess is 7,000-8,000 employee cars will be delivered before they start making customer cars.
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