Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[ummgood]

Mine keeps moving up slightly each time. I am wondering if I'll be able to see some reviews from people who received their car before I have to place the order for mine. Right now I am scheduled for delivery Feb 5th, 18 based on the calculator. I am hoping some of the early cars in November are in people's hands and there are reviews before I have to commit to ordering mine and I can find out more opinions on options, lack of 2nd screen, etc...

 

[S3XY]

Mine keeps moving up slightly each time. I am wondering if I'll be able to see some reviews from people who received their car before I have to place the order for mine. Right now I am scheduled for delivery Feb 5th, 18 based on the calculator. I am hoping some of the early cars in November are in people's hands and there are reviews before I have to commit to ordering mine and I can find out more opinions on options, lack of 2nd screen, etc...

Somehow I don't think this will be a problem. There will be reviews with photos all over the place as soon as these things hit the streets.

 

[ummgood]

Somehow I don't think this will be a problem. There will be reviews with photos all over the place as soon as these things hit the streets.

Yeah I know. My question is will I have to place my order before the first card are delivered or after?

 

[S3XY]

Understood. But how far in advance were configurations completed for S&X deliveries? Cars should be in the hands of employees about 6 months before you get yours.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @FlatSix911, No I don't use insideevs numbers. They use their own estimates for USA sales. I use my own. My 2016 USA Tesla sales estimate is 44,643 units. Theirs is 47,644. If Tesla releases the actual number, we will find out. I need to use my own method because I fine tune it over time.

The big unknown is Asia/Pacific sales. There is no data source for Tesla sales in China, Hong Kong, Japan etc. However, California sales are published quarterly by CNCDA. That helps with USA estimates. Also, a team of volunteers here at TMC collect monthly sales data for almost all European countries. You can find the wiki project here. The screenshot that you added is actually a tab on our project file.

 

[JamesL6]

Thank you for your hard work!

 

[EVNow]

Hi, @FlatSix911, No I don't use insideevs numbers. They use their own estimates for USA sales. I use my own. My 2016 USA Tesla sales estimate is 44,643 units. Theirs is 47,644. If Tesla releases the actual number, we will find out. I need to use my own method because I fine tune it over time.

Insideevs number is for NA(unless they have changed recently).

 

[roguenode]

Hmmm, I made my reservation in Denver within the first hour of people through the store and my estimated date is Jan 11, 2018. I have a family member picking up a 100D this week and it looks like if they make a reservation now they're estimated to get a December 22, 2017 delivery. Maybe, I'll have them make a reservation so I can get the model 3 earlier.

 

[juanmedina]

March 22 of 2018 delivery time for me I am depressed ....

Reserved on March 31st 7:29pm South East Online P75D

 

[Jayc]

Reserved while reveal was going on and estimate for me is November 2018, when will this waiting end

 

[Model 3]

for me is November 2018, when will this waiting end

In November 2018 +/- one year is probably a safe bet

 

[mmanner]

Hi, @NikeWings. I was checking some sources and came across to the following statements from Tesla during a conference call. Click HERE to listen from 48:13 to 49:08. Tesla confirms that new S/X buyers will still get priority. Here is the transcript:

I guess to beat this to death, I reserved April 7, 2016, was not a Tesla owner, and it shows Oct. ish 2018 as delivery for me. If I change to say I am a Tesla owner (I will be in about 2 weeks when my MS 100D arrives), it shows Jan 2018. Am I right that my position in line will automatically change at Tesla once they see that I have closed on the purchase of the S? [edit--I read the Elon tweetstorm referenced in another post and it does seem like whenever you become an owner it does move you up]

 

[Troy]

Hi, @mmanner. I think the way Tesla is going to decide whether a reservation holder is a Tesla owner or not is through their mytesla account. So make sure the Model 3 reservation and the Model S both appear under the same mytesla account.

Let me add the transcript for that audio.

Jonathan McNeill - President-Global Sales, Q1 2016 Earnings Call, May 04, 2016
Audio: Click HERE
Transcript: In terms of S and X as a bridge to Model 3, we are talking through and thinking through that. Just as Elon mentioned earlier, the quickest path to receiving a Model 3 is being a Tesla owner. We've agreed that Tesla owners are receiving priority in terms of production, and so you can run the math I just mentioned. If 93% are new to Tesla, 7% of the reservation holders are Tesla owners. And the fastest way to get production vehicle even in 2017 is through Tesla ownership and so we're finding that there's a good conversion rate of folks that are coming in to test drive an S or an X who are Model 3 reservation-holders and are motivated to be Tesla owners now so that they can receive their Model 3 earlier.

 

[FlatSix911]

Looks like the high end Model 3 will be delayed ...
Tesla Model 3 will not be available with all-wheel-drive dual motors at launch, says Elon Musk

Bad news for early Tesla Model 3 reservation holders who were hoping to order the vehicle with dual motor all-wheel-drive. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the dual motor Model 3 will not be available “until next year”.

It means that the vehicles planned for production in 2017 – starting in July – can only be configured with a single motor rear-wheel-drive powertrain. It’s likely to be frustrating for the people who placed reservations on the first day hoping to order the higher-end version of the Model 3, but Musk confirmed that they are “minimizing configuration complexity to keep the production ramp on schedule”.

 

[melindav]

a followup tweet listed 6-9 months out for the first dual motor production car. @Troy will you be tweaking the estimator?
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Troy]

Elon confirms 75 kWh pack size (link). This shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody who has ever used the Model 3 delivery estimator because it always displayed 55 and 75 kWh since late September 2016 when I added that option. I also expect the 55 kWh number to be confirmed. In addition, I expect the Model 3 75D to have around 300 miles EPA rated range. You can find my range calculations HERE. Like the estimator shows, I expect to see the following trim levels:

Model 3 55
Model 3 75
Model 3 55D
Model 3 75D
Model 3 P75D

The 75 kWh number was clear to me but it wasn't clear to everybody. For example, HERE is a video with unrealistic range, battery size and trim level options. The most common mistake people are making is not considering higher efficiency in the Model 3. For example, the Model S 75D has 259 miles rated range. The Model 3 75D is expected to have around 300 miles. Therefore it will have longer range than the Model S 90D. It will also supercharge faster than the S75D and it will cost less to charge than the Model S. This is because it needs less kWh for the same range.

By the way, Elon's tweet about wheelbase not supporting more than 75 kWh battery doesn't sound right to me. I think 85 kWh is possible in the Model 3 and Tesla will release an 85 kWh version in 18-24 months after production starts.

@melindav,
I will update the calculations within a few hours.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Elon confirms 75 kWh pack size (link). This shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody who has ever used the Model 3 delivery estimator because it always displayed 55 and 75 kWh since late September 2016 when I added that option. I also expect the 55 kWh number to be confirmed. In addition, I expect the Model 3 75D to have around 300 miles EPA rated range. You can find my range calculations HERE. Like the estimator shows, I expect to see the following trim levels:

Model 3 55
Model 3 75
Model 3 55D
Model 3 75D
Model 3 P75D

The 75 kWh number was clear to me but it wasn't clear to everybody. For example, HERE is a video with unrealistic range, battery size and trim level options. The most common mistake people are making is not considering higher efficiency in the Model 3. For example, the Model S 75D has 259 miles rated range. The Model 3 75D is expected to have around 300 miles. Therefore it will have longer range than the Model S 90D. It will also supercharge faster than the S75D and it will cost less to charge than the Model S. This is because it needs less kWh for the same range.

By the way, Elon's tweet about wheelbase not supporting more than 75 kWh battery doesn't sound right to me. I think 85 kWh is possible in the Model 3 and Tesla will release an 85 kWh version 18-24 months after production starts.

@melindav,
I will update the calculations within a few hours.

I'm sad now, and thinking Elon is going to lure me into a CPO S this summer, depending on the wait for my 3.

 

[BOBEDIGITL]

Looks like this is going to have be updated before it becomes usable again.

 

[Troy]

Hi. Here is the latest situation: The information Elon tweeted has completely messed up everything. We need a complete redesign. Things have become a lot more complicated. I have a plan but this might take a day or two.

To me, it looks like they run into design problems with the dual motor and performance versions. Therefore they will start with the single motor version first while they continue working on solving the issues.

 

[JamesL6]

Hi. Here is the latest situation: The information Elon tweeted has completely messed up everything. We need a complete redesign. Things have become a lot more complicated. I have a plan but this might take a day or two.

To me, it looks like they run into design problems with the dual motor and performance versions. Therefore they will start with the single motor version first while they continue working on solving the issues.

Take your time, anticipating the release and thanks for putting in the hours to do this!