Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Bokonon]

Theory #1: AWD in the 6-9 months from 24 Mar 2017:
24 Sep 2017 - 24 Dec 2017
AWD not until next year.

Theory #2: AWD in the 6-9 months from 1 July 2017:
1 Jan 2018 - 1 Apr 2018
AWD not until next year.

*snip*

#1 is less likely than #2 because the dates 24 Sep 2017 - 24 Dec 2017 don't match the "AWD not until next" year statement.

This has been heavily litigated in the AWD thread (albeit with no definitive conclusion).

The problem I see with this common interpretation is that the tweet on which it is based does not clearly address whether it is answering the "dual motors" or "go fast" part of the original question. If Elon's answer pertains to the "go fast" part of the question, then it is consistent with his later tweet that the Performance configuration would be available about a year from now (where "now" = March 24, 2017).

The tweet about AWD going to production in 6 to 9 months did not specify an anchor point, but as others have pointed out:

(1) the colloquialism "in [n] [unit of time]" almost always implies "from now" unless otherwise qualified (e.g. "the train departs at 7:00, meet me at the station in 5 minutes" means to meet 5 minutes from the current time, not at 7:05)

(2) his tweet about the Performance configuration explicitly specified "a year from now", so, in the absence of any other qualifiers, the most logical assumption to make is that "in 6 to 9 months" also refers to "from now".

So, based on this reasoning, and the summer timeline for RHD models being on the road in the UK, I think your original interpretation of the timeline (theory #1) is actually more likely to match Elon's intentions.

RWD: Production starts in July 2017
AWD: Production starts sometime between October 2017 - January 2018*
P AWD: Production starts in April 2018*

* Dates rounded up by a week for simplicity

Of course, at the end of the day, we're speculating about the timeline for an all-new product and manufacturing process with a lot of unknowns. I fully expect that this timeline (and our understanding of the factors driving it) will change within the coming weeks.

 

[Bokonon]

Update: unless it's some kind of cruel April Fool's joke, Elon's latest tweet appears to confirm theory #1.

 

[FlatSix911]

Update: unless it's some kind of cruel April Fool's joke, Elon's latest tweet appears to confirm theory #1.

 

[Troy]

Hi. I have just updated the calculations based on Elon's latest tweet.

Andrew‏: Any chance that someone who camped out overnight to reserve Model 3 will get an AWD Model 3 by Dec 31st this year?
Elon: Pretty good

We are back to theory #1. We are now using these dates:
Dual motor: 8 Nov 2017
Performance: 13 Apr 2018

 

[tsla007]

I would take that tweet with a major gain of salt. If he's wrong he can just say it was an April fools day joke. No commitment on that tweet.

 

[pkalhan]

Troy, I just wanted to take the time to thank you for making this tool. I am not sure how accurate this estimator is (I hope it is as I would be getting my 75D east cost by June of 2018), but I am sure it had to take a great deal of time to put together and I do enjoy messing around with it and seeing if things change over time...thanks again.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @pkalhan. No problem. I enjoy working on Google sheets.

 

[Troy]

Hi. I've added estimated rated range numbers to the displayed results. These are based on my calculations. I have a separate spreadsheet HERE in case people are interested. When the actual numbers are released, we can look back and see if the estimates were any good.

Estimated EPA rated range
Model 3 55: 218 mi
Model 3 55D: 227 mi
Model 3 75: 284 mi
Model 3 75D: 297 mi
Model 3 P75D: 281 mi

 

[ummgood]

Hi. I've added estimated rated range numbers to the displayed results. These are based on my calculations. I have a separate spreadsheet HERE in case people are interested. When the actual numbers are released, we can look back and see if the estimates were any good.

Estimated EPA rated range
Model 3 55: 218 mi
Model 3 55D: 227 mi
Model 3 75: 284 mi
Model 3 75D: 297 mi
Model 3 P75D: 281 mi

I agree with you on the pack sizes. I am hoping the 75D is 310 and the 75 is 300 miles. We shall see... One thing I don't see mentioned much in the debate about the Model 3 vs Bolt range threads is the tires. Tesla usually puts pretty wide tires on their cars that hurt range significantly. Personally I like the wide tires and wouldn't mind a range hit but it is something to think about. I bet your estimates are pretty close even though in my fairytale land I want mine to be true.

 

[Weezer Fan]

Heck, my dates keep moving up!! RWD is November, AWD is January. It was Feb originally. I would wait for the diff between Nov and Jan unless I were to loose a big amount of tax credit.

 

[S3XY]

One thing you definitely lose is a whole year waiting to get your tax credit.

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting Tesla Blog post ... Model S or Model 3

Model S or Model 3
The Tesla Team April 6, 2017

We’ve been getting ready for Model 3 by advancing manufacturing, expanding our charging network, improving service, opening more retail stores and much more. With a new model coming this year, we know our customers will have questions about which car is right for them. One question we’ve been asked is, “Should I trade in my Model S for a Model 3?” While Model 3 will be our newest car, it isn’t “Version 3” or the next generation Tesla. Our higher priced premium models still include the most advanced technology and the best driving experience we have to offer.

Model S is the leader in its class in every category, which is why 94 percent of our owners say they will buy Model S again. It has a 5-star safety rating and will continue to be our flagship Model with more range, more acceleration, more power, more passenger and cargo room, more displays (two) and more customization choices. With Ludicrous+, Model S has a zero-to-60 time of 2.28 seconds as measured by Motor Trend, making it the fastest accelerating production car in the world. Model S will also continue to be the longest-range vehicle we offer, capable of a landmark 335 miles on a single charge, meaning you can travel from Los Angeles to San Francisco nonstop.

Model 3 is smaller, simpler, and will come with far fewer options than Model S, but it makes driving feel effortless and offers a good range of at least 215 miles for our starting model.

At the foundation of every Tesla is safety – keeping our customers safe is part of every decision we make. In addition, every Tesla vehicle (Model 3 too) comes standard with full self-driving hardware which, through over-the-air software upgrades, will enable a Tesla to be substantially safer than a human driver. As we continue to test and validate new features, customers can expect an increasing number of updates to be rolled out to their cars this year. And while innovation at Tesla will never stop, the very best vehicles we make are already available for purchase and on the road today.

 

[vinnie97]

Hi. I've added estimated rated range numbers to the displayed results. These are based on my calculations. I have a separate spreadsheet HERE in case people are interested. When the actual numbers are released, we can look back and see if the estimates were any good.

Estimated EPA rated range
Model 3 55: 218 mi
Model 3 55D: 227 mi
Model 3 75: 284 mi
Model 3 75D: 297 mi
Model 3 P75D: 281 mi

Seems to be revised down from your previous predictions/estimates, IIRC. It may just be mostly psychological at this point, but I really hope they shoot for at least 300 miles on the dual motor version. The supercharger situation is languishing.

 

[TE3LA]

Hi. I've added estimated rated range numbers to the displayed results. These are based on my calculations. I have a separate spreadsheet HERE in case people are interested. When the actual numbers are released, we can look back and see if the estimates were any good.

Estimated EPA rated range
Model 3 55: 218 mi
Model 3 55D: 227 mi
Model 3 75: 284 mi
Model 3 75D: 297 mi
Model 3 P75D: 281 mi

You are a spreadsheet Jedi

 

[Troy]

Hi, @TE3LA. Nice username. Yes, I love Google Sheets. I was actually a volunteer in Google's Top Contributor program last year (my profile) and helped many people with formulas. If anybody here needs help with a Tesla related Google sheet, especially something advanced like arrayformula() or query(), free help is available. Just send me a message.

 

[FlatSix911]

Another reason to purchase a Model S now or a Model 3 later ... More Marketing BS

Buy now

Model S and X 100 kWh price increase on April 16th • r/teslamotors

 

[JSkrehot]

What is the big change in the delivery estimator? When the AWD delay first came out, the updated estimator showed me getting a 3 75 Dec 24 of 17' and a 3 75D in like October. Now it it says I would get a 3 75 June 13 or if I get a 3 75D, I can get it May 13. I was excited for the early estimate as I am not concerned with the mere 0.03 seconds the dual motor gets you in a non performance version.

 

[melindav]

What is the big change in the delivery estimator? When the AWD delay first came out, the updated estimator showed me getting a 3 75 Dec 24 of 17' and a 3 75D in like October. Now it it says I would get a 3 75 June 13 or if I get a 3 75D, I can get it May 13. I was excited for the early estimate as I am not concerned with the mere 0.03 seconds the dual motor gets you in a non performance version.

I think Troy discovered a break in the spreadsheet and later fixed it.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @JSkrehot. If it shows May 2018 for Dual-motor in California, your place in the reservation queue must be around 47-55%. I think the question you are asking is, why did your dual motor delivery estimate move from Oct 2018 to May 2018. Assuming that's the question, the answer would be, because, in the earlier version, dual motor and performance trims were too late which meant lots of single motor buyers would get their cars before you, even those who are around 70% on the waiting list. However, after Elon's "pretty good" tweet (this tweet), it turns out, the delays are not as long as expected.

 

[JSkrehot]

Hi, @JSkrehot. If it shows May 2018 for Dual-motor in California, your place in the reservation queue must be around 47-55%. I think the question you are asking is, why did your dual motor delivery estimate move from Oct 2018 to May 2018. Assuming that's the question, the answer would be, because, in the earlier version, dual motor and performance trims were too late which meant lots of single motor buyers would get their cars before you, even those who are around 70% on the waiting list. However, after Elon's "pretty good" tweet (this tweet), it turns out, the delays are not as long as expected.

That would be nice, however, they have never met a deadline before. I'm guessing it will be the 6 or so employees that get their cars at the final unveil. We shall see though in July, wether Elon has a more definitive timeframe or from what people report when they are able to begin configuring their cars.