Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[dsvick]

It's all going to come down to how fast they can ramp up and how much, if any, they are willing to game the system for customers. I'm thinking it's a toss up as to when whether they're going to hit 200K in Q4 this year or Q1 next year. If the ramp goes at all like they plan then it could easily be this year, which means the full credit would be gone one year from now. However, if it is close the end of Q4, I'd hope they delay some deliveries so that 200K is in Q1 of 2018.

Whichever way it goes I'm hoping they'll put out some guidance one way or the other as they get closer so that people can make an informed decision whether or not to wait for dual motors and/or performance.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I'm going to reserve my comments about Teslas billionaires being concerned about the average Model 3 reservationists "tax breaks".

 

[shrspeedblade]

If you can't be optimistic Garlan at least be realistic: they will probably try to game the credits to some degree simply because it is in their best interest to do so. There will be fewer cancellations and people will select more options increasing profit margins!

At least that's the rationale I'm trying to use.

 

[electracity]

I'm thinking it's a toss up as to when whether they're going to hit 200K in Q4 this year or Q1 next year.

That is your range of possible outcomes?

 

[caltechkid]

Current CA owner, est. delivery dates for a new reservation, same stats for 55/75:

M3 55 = Oct 2017
M3 55D = Feb 2018

 

[Bruinfan]

that's more like it...

i went from i think dec 2017 to oct 2017, RWD Ca owner.

 

[MP3Mike]

The dual motor delay seems more like 5 months. Elon said no dual motors until next year.

@Troy No, he actually said "...as soon as we can make it, which is probably in 6 to 9 months." Of course he didn't say when that 6-9 months starts.

 

[Troy]

@MP3Mike, check this out:

James: Will there be a dual motor option? I put a deposit on a 3 with the hope there would be go fast options...
Elon: Yes, but not until next year
Source: Elon Musk on Twitter

By the way, I remember you from the downvotes you gave me. HERE and HERE where I correctly predicted the 75 kWh battery. Your own estimate in the same topic HERE was more optimistic.

 

[MP3Mike]

@MP3Mike, check this out:

James: Will there be a dual motor option? I put a deposit on a 3 with the hope there would be go fast options...
Elon: Yes, but not until next year
Source: Elon Musk on Twitter

By the way, I remember you from the downvotes you gave me. HERE and HERE where I correctly predicted the 75 kWh battery. Your own estimate in the same topic HERE was more optimistic.

He was referring to the "go fast options" there not the AWD option. The 6-9 month write if later in that she thread.

 

[Troy]

This is what Elon said about the dual motor version:

James: Will there be a dual motor option?
Elon: Yes, but not until next year
Fred: First adopters will not have the option of all-wheel-drive for the Model 3?
Elon: No, we are minimizing configuration complexity to keep the production ramp on schedule. RWD only for early production, just like Model S.
Tim: How will that impact early reservation holders that want to wait for a dual motor car?
Elon: First in line for dual motor as soon as we can make it, which is probably in 6 to 9 months.
Elon Musk on Twitter

9 months would be 24 Dec 2017. Therefore January 2018 seems like a good guess which also matches the "not until next year" statement. Currently, we use late January 2018 in calculations.

This is what he said about the performance version:

Wesley: is there going to be a Performance 3? Would love to see the power of a Model S with the light weight of a Model 3
Elon: Yeah, probably a year from now. S will still win on acceleration though, due to having more space for a larger battery.
Elon Musk on Twitter

A year from his tweet would be 24 March 2018. Therefore April 2018 seems like a good guess. Currently, we use late April 2018 for first performance versions.

 

[Model 3]

This is what Elon said about the dual motor version:

9 months would be 24 Dec 2017. Therefore January 2018 seems like a good guess which also matches the "not until next year" statement. Currently, we use late January 2018 in calculations.

This is what he said about the performance version:

A year from his tweet would be 24 March 2018. Therefore April 2018 seems like a good guess. Currently, we use late April 2018 for first performance versions.

Have you considered that the "6 to 9 month" may be from production start? If production start is as planed in the start of July, then it gives ~Q1 2018 as start of production of both "D" and "P". Could it be that they will start with the Performance at the same time as they start with the "D" models?

 

[Troy]

TLDR: Now I think 6-9 months means from July 1st 2017.

Hi, @Model 3. You might be right. 6 to 9 months could mean 3 things:

Theory #1: AWD in the 6-9 months from 24 Mar 2017:
24 Sep 2017 - 24 Dec 2017
AWD not until next year.

Theory #2: AWD in the 6-9 months from 1 July 2017:
1 Jan 2018 - 1 Apr 2018
AWD not until next year.

Theory #3: AWD in the 6-9 months from 1 Sep 2017:
1 Mar 2018 - 1 Jun 2018
AWD not until next year.

Until now, I hadn't considered #2. Between #1 and #3, I liked #1 more because #3 made less sense to me. After your comment, I thought about it a little more and you might be right about #2. Elon also said AWD won't be here until next year and P will be probably a year from now. In addition, they are planning to start right-hand-drive production in summer 2018. When considering all these together, here is what I think:

#3 doesn't look likely because it contradicts the "P in a year from now" statement. Without AWD there can't be a P version but in #3 they would still be trying to solve the AWD issues between 1 Mar 2018 - 1 Jun 2018. Therefore how can they make a P in a year if they haven't solved AWD yet? Also, in this theory, there is too little time between AWD/P production start dates and shifting focus to RHD versions. If he meant #3, he should have said autumn or winter 2018 for RHD.

#1 is less likely than #2 because the dates 24 Sep 2017 - 24 Dec 2017 don't match the "AWD not until next" year statement. However, compared to #3, I saw fewer problems with this one.

#2. I like this option because 1 Jan 2018 - 1 Apr 2018 for AWD matches the "AWD not until next year" statement perfectly. In addition, the dates don't contradict his "P in a year from now" statement. Now, I'm leaning towards this theory. I still think they will start with the D and then add the P, later.

Currently, we use 27 Jan 2018 for AWD and 26 Apr 2018 for P production start dates. To reduce error margins, if we take the middle of 1 Jan 2018 - 1 Apr 2018, I should move the AWD start date to 14th Feb 2018. I might do that later.

 

[tsla007]

the facts are the parts are not on time from vendors which is the hold up for dual motors high optioned cars. Keep it simple.
As for the dates-who really cares at this point??? you've waited a whole yr what's another yr?

 

[S3XY]

the facts are the parts are not on time from vendors which is the hold up for dual motors high optioned cars. Keep it simple.
As for the dates-who really cares at this point??? you've waited a whole yr what's another yr?

Possibly an extra $7,500?

 

[Justmurr]

Possibly an extra $7,500?

Yep, nailed it with that reply.

Those of us who have no possibilities of getting into an S really need things to go smoothly for this timeline to work out and allow the tax break or some form of it to be feasible. I've never even spent over $29k for a car before...I know I'm going well over that with my Model 3 and how well-optioned my RWD will be depend heavily on that tax break.

Will take what I can get as soon as I can get it and thankful that there's even an opportunity for 'the rest of us'.
Also thankful to ALL current owners with reservations for making the obvious choice to wait for dual motors.

 

[FlatSix911]

Agreed ... I think #2 is the correct answer

Theory #2: AWD in the 6-9 months from 1 July 2017: 1 Jan 2018 - 1 Apr 2018 AWD not until next year.

#2. I like this option because 1 Jan 2018 - 1 Apr 2018 for AWD matches the "AWD not until next year" statement perfectly. In addition, the dates don't contradict his "P in a year from now" statement. Now, I'm leaning towards this theory. I still think they will start with the D and then add the P, later.

Currently, we use 27 Jan 2018 for AWD and 26 Apr 2018 for P production start dates. To reduce error margins, if we take the middle of 1 Jan 2018 - 1 Apr 2018, I should move the AWD start date to 14th Feb 2018. I might do that later.[/USER]

 

[tashtibet]

all is vague-RWD for all the reservation holders ( across the globe) first or the US and then AWD??????

 

[S3XY]

Possibly an extra $7,500?

Technically I should've said $3,750. I expect we'll at least get half the credit.

 

[acentre]

Yep, nailed it with that reply.

Those of us who have no possibilities of getting into an S really need things to go smoothly for this timeline to work out and allow the tax break or some form of it to be feasible. I've never even spent over $29k for a car before...I know I'm going well over that with my Model 3 and how well-optioned my RWD will be depend heavily on that tax break.

Will take what I can get as soon as I can get it and thankful that there's even an opportunity for 'the rest of us'.
Also thankful to ALL current owners with reservations for making the obvious choice to wait for dual motors.

With my 2wd order in the Northeast, I should be getting my 3 by first week of Decemeber. I can then capture the $7500 credit and $2000 Ny credit. Does anyone one if adaptive cruise is standard or only with a autopilot( wish I do not desire) package?

 

[MP3Mike]

Does anyone one if adaptive cruise is standard or only with a autopilot( wish I do not desire) package?

Nope, nobody knows for sure yet. But on the Model S and X TACC is part of Autopilot, so you can assume that it will be on the Model 3 as well.