Hi. Because Tesla is now expecting a quicker ramp-up, this made the optimistic tax credits scenario much less likely because now they will hit 200K in the USA in Q4 2017. To avoid that, they would need to deliver 19K Model 3's outside the USA in Q4 2017. However, this is not likely because it has no financial benefit to Tesla and it contradicts their aim to have initial deliveries close to the factory in case there are problems and they need to ship new parts. What this means is, I have renamed the pessimistic tax credits scenario to realistic scenario.
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Snow Drift
[Off-Road Assist] Activated
N5329K
Active Member
Expecting a quicker ramp up where everything goes right and achieving a quicker ramp up in spite of all the many ways things might not go right are very different animals. It's an interesting adjustment in your algorithm, but I wouldn't count on anything nor lose any sleep over anything.
Robin
Robin
@N5329K,
I'm still not as optimistic as Tesla is. Even now, the estimator has 2 months delay baked in compared to Tesla's timeline. Instead of mid 2018 (the implied date is 1st July 2018), I used 1st Sep 2018 for new (non-owner) orders.
I'm still not as optimistic as Tesla is. Even now, the estimator has 2 months delay baked in compared to Tesla's timeline. Instead of mid 2018 (the implied date is 1st July 2018), I used 1st Sep 2018 for new (non-owner) orders.
Snow Drift
[Off-Road Assist] Activated
Does start of production mean when we will get invited to configure or actual start of assembly? How early do we expect configure invitations to go out?
Correction, I'm getting full $7,500.
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Here is the latest update:
- During today's conference call at 20:12, Elon said, "We are still highly confident of reaching volume production in the second half of next year." You can listen to it here. Login details are not important. You can enter any info you want. Based on this latest info, the calculations on the estimator are still looking good and no changes are needed.
- In today's shareholder letter Tesla said: "Last week, we announced that all newly produced Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability. This same capability will also be built into every Model 3."
@Snow Drift,
The production start date the estimator shows is the estimated date your car enters production at the factory. You will get an order status update message that says "In production". Check out this topic: Order progression Configuration and order confirmation will happen before this date.
The production start date the estimator shows is the estimated date your car enters production at the factory. You will get an order status update message that says "In production". Check out this topic: Order progression Configuration and order confirmation will happen before this date.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
OK, so unless I am doing something wrong, which is entirely possible, it is telling me to expect delivery in February 2019. I find this a bit hard to believe since Elon said earlier this month that if you weren't already reservation holders (which I had been for almost 6 months) not to expect your car before 2018.
Go figure.
Dan
Go figure.
Dan
Hi @Dan Detweiler. I can't get the estimator to show February 2019 in USA Eastern Time even if I enter today as the reservation date and select the lowest trim. I don't know what data you are entering but let me know if you want me to check.
melindav
☰ 2018
Based on the X info on Model tracker.com, invites for all production car reservations were sent about a month before delivery started for them. Invitations to configure went out 1/11/16 and the first was delivered in CA on 2/9/16. (Signature and founder reservations were earlier) There were significantly fewer X reservations though, so expect the invites to be staggered for the Model 3 and not all at the same time.
So while there are some saying they expect the design studio to be available months and months earlier than July 2017, I think they are dreaming. Employees may be invited to configure in July if all goes well. General public reservations likely will be a couple months later.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
April 25th reservation, Everything but Ludicrous (bigger battery, autonomous auto pilot, etc.)
Let me know what I'm doing wrong.
Thanks
Dan
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
@Gunn, you are confusing the topics. This topic is about the Model 3 Delivery Estimator. It is a Google Sheet open to anyone who wants to use it without any login.
You are talking about the model3tracker.info website by another forum member. Check out their topic here. Trev recently made a video about it here. The two projects are not related.
You are talking about the model3tracker.info website by another forum member. Check out their topic here. Trev recently made a video about it here. The two projects are not related.
Gunn
Member
Garlan Garner
Banned
I think I'm going to cry.
Finally some hint of the fact that I waited out in the rain on 3.31.16 for something special is coming true.
Early Tesla Model 3 reservation holders will have ‘something special’ to make their car stand out
Finally some hint of the fact that I waited out in the rain on 3.31.16 for something special is coming true.
Early Tesla Model 3 reservation holders will have ‘something special’ to make their car stand out
Can't wait to find out what it is. Exclusive paint, wheels, or a badge maybe? BTW, I drove 3 1/2 hours to Cleveland to wait in the rain. I was amazed at the line when we (picked up 2 people in Buffalo and 1 in Erie, PA) got there.
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