Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Troy]

Hi, @dsmith2189. I can't because it would make my job difficult and I don't think there are enough buyers there to put in all the extra effort. Just check out cell i1000 and below here if you want to see the cells I have to move around for calculations.

Initially, the spreadsheet was more automated. The formulas would do all the calculations automatically and all I had to do was to adjust a few settings here and there. But then Elon said AWD in early 2018 and Performance in late March-early April 2018.That complicated things a lot because there are also regional priorities and production start dates. I couldn't automate things anymore. The current version includes lots of manual work for maximum flexibility.

There are literally 3 shifts every single day which I can assign to different regions and trim levels by manually entering those there. Two shifts were not enough because the calculations were not precise enough. Eventually, they will make 10,000 Model 3s per week. That's 1429 cars per day and regions like "USA, Mountain Time" states don't buy too many Teslas.

This region is expected to buy 13,652 Model 3s out of which 3,332 are expected to be RWD. A day's production would be 43% of all RWD orders from this region. If I allocate a single day to Mountain time states then it suddenly jumps from zero to 43% delivered. Then people from California complain that other regions are getting their car sooner even though they reserved later. To avoid that I added more shifts which increased the manual work. I could ditch the current system and create something more automated but it would be less flexible.

 

[Troy]

Hi, folks.

Today, Tesla confirmed they will discontinue the Model S 75 RWD (Source). Therefore it is now more likely that the 75 kWh Model 3 pack will be available at launch. The way I read this is, they are trying to avoid mainstream media comparing the Model 3 75 to the Model S 75. The timing is not a coincidence.

Of course, this doesn't mean the smaller battery won't be available at launch. They both could be available. I re-watched Elon's comments during the shareholder meeting and he was talking about keeping the initial cars simple (no dual motors, no performance, no air suspension etc) but the battery doesn't make the car more complicated.

By the way, if you have been following this thread closely, Tesla discontinuing the S75 probably didn't come as a surprise to you because I wrote about this possibility in March here (see the last sentence). I said this:

75 kWh Model S versions will be discontinued by the end of this year because most people won't pay more for less range + gimmicks.

Now we can watch and see if the S75D will also be discontinued before Model 3 75D starts production.

Tesla is in a bit of pickle here. They can't reduce the Model S prices too much because the Model S production line is not as automated as the Model 3 production line. Therefore manual labor costs are too high. Also, the Model S was not designed for ease of production. They need to redesign the entire car and the production line for the Model S to compete against the Model 3. That would take 3-4 years.

Instead of doing that, they are better off canceling the 75 kWh Model S versions and selling 75 kWh Model 3 cars. However, the 100 kWh Model S is also in trouble and this will become more obvious in 12-18 months. Therefore the best thing Tesla could do would be to release the 85 kWh Model 3 sooner rather than later and charge $10K extra for it over the 75 kWh version. This would be a much better solution.

I predict an 85 kWh Model 3 either in 2018 or 2019. There are two signs to look for:
1. Poor 100 kWh Model S sales
2. At least 25% gross margin on Model 3 sales

If both conditions are met, we could see an 85 kWh Model 3 in 2018. It would have 330 mi EPA.

 

[Snow Drift]

If they cancel the 75D, then the MS would start at $97,500. The base 7-series AWD is $86,100. They need an offering under $90k. Maybe 85D at $85,000 makes more sense for the Model S.

 

[tpatana]

If they cancel the 75D, then the MS would start at $97,500. The base 7-series AWD is $86,100. They need an offering under $90k. Maybe 85D at $85,000 makes more sense for the Model S.

By then (12-24 months from now), the battery pack price might come down, and the lowers MS could still be less than $86k. Maybe MS-90D for $85k, or even base MS-100D.

 

[Snow Drift]

I think the 85 is coming back to the Model S.

From FB, allegedly a new 75 car.


View attachment 237171

 

[SageBrush]

Hi, folks.

We all probably agree that the Model S will be the expensive, more model but I'm a simple minded guy

So I imagine:
Model 3
Range 215 - 275 miles
0-60: 4.6 - 5.6 seconds

Model S
Range 290 - 390 miles
0-60: 2.4 - 4.2 seconds

 

[Roy Wasson]

Hi, @Roy Wasson. You can see the results here as an image file. 13:08 Eastern time would be 10:08 Pacific Time. If 13:08 was already Pacific Time then it adds 19 days more.

Thanks again, Troy. Could I trouble you to run the estimator again with AWD? I appreciate it.

Roy

 

[Ken7]

Hi, folks.

Today, Tesla confirmed they will discontinue the Model S 75 RWD (Source). Therefore it is now more likely that the 75 kWh Model 3 pack will be available at launch. The way I read this is, they are trying to avoid mainstream media comparing the Model 3 75 to the Model S 75. The timing is not a coincidence.

Of course, this doesn't mean the smaller battery won't be available at launch. They both could be available. I re-watched Elon's comments during the shareholder meeting and he was talking about keeping the initial cars simple (no dual motors, no performance, no air suspension etc) but the battery doesn't make the car more complicated.

By the way, if you have been following this thread closely, Tesla discontinuing the S75 probably didn't come as a surprise to you because I wrote about this possibility in March here (see the last sentence). I said this:



Now we can watch and see if the S75D will also be discontinued before Model 3 75D starts production.

Tesla is in a bit of pickle here. They can't reduce the Model S prices too much because the Model S production line is not as automated as the Model 3 production line. Therefore manual labor costs are too high. Also, the Model S was not designed for ease of production. They need to redesign the entire car and the production line for the Model S to compete against the Model 3. That would take 3-4 years.

Instead of doing that, they are better off canceling the 75 kWh Model S versions and selling 75 kWh Model 3 cars. However, the 100 kWh Model S is also in trouble and this will become more obvious in 12-18 months. Therefore the best thing Tesla could do would be to release the 85 kWh Model 3 sooner rather than later and charge $10K extra for it over the 75 kWh version. This would be a much better solution.

I predict an 85 kWh Model 3 either in 2018 or 2019. There are two signs to look for:
1. Poor 100 kWh Model S sales
2. At least 25% gross margin on Model 3 sales

If both conditions are met, we could see an 85 kWh Model 3 in 2018. It would have 330 mi EPA.

Hard to fathom a Model 3 buyer shelling out an extra $10g for an 85kWh vs a 75kWh. Of course that may just be my predisposition on the pricing.

 

[03DSG]

Am I missing something here? AFAIK Elon said max battery pack size for Model 3 was wheelbase limited to 75 kWh.

 

[Troy]

Am I missing something here? AFAIK Elon said max battery pack size for Model 3 was wheelbase limited to 75 kWh.

Yes, that's what Elon said but there is a video here of the underside of a Model 3 and it shows two things:

1. They have intentionally used a smaller section of the floor area for the battery. Unlike the Model S battery, the Model 3 battery ends before the front tires begin.
2. An 85 kWh battery could fit if they had used the equivalent floor space including the space between the front wheels.

See my comments here about what this means.

 

[Pinot.Noir]

Model S
Range 290 - 390 miles
0-60: 2.4 - 4.2 seconds

Where are you getting 390 miles? The 100D is currently rated at 335. Getting to 390 would require the battery to be about a 120.

 

[Weezer Fan]

Feb 2oth. I'd be thrilled!

 

[EVNow]

While figuring out the delivery dates, there are 2 main sources of uncertainty for me.
- How will Tesla's ramp-up will actually be ? How much will it differ from Elan's tweet.
- When will various regions start their production runs ? This may not be like X. For eg. for PNW instead of Oct i.e. after a month of serious production for CA - production might start in Nov. Afterall, the reason Tesla wants to deliver first cars in CA is to get feedback and incorporate that feedback before delivering to other regions. Oct may be too early to do all this. Or Tesla may feel the small production cars in Jul/Aug are good indicators and Oct is a good time to start production run for PNW. There is a lot of uncertainty here.

 

[S3XY]

While figuring out the delivery dates, there are 2 main sources of uncertainty for me.
- How will Tesla's ramp-up will actually be ? How much will it differ from Elan's tweet.
- When will various regions start their production runs ? This may not be like X. For eg. for PNW instead of Oct i.e. after a month of serious production for CA - production might start in Nov. Afterall, the reason Tesla wants to deliver first cars in CA is to get feedback and incorporate that feedback before delivering to other regions. Oct may be too early to do all this. Or Tesla may feel the small production cars in Jul/Aug are good indicators and Oct is a good time to start production run for PNW. There is a lot of uncertainty here.

They probably don't know the roll-out schedule themselves right now. The number of defects will likely affect when they start delivering to other regions. The more solid the builds are the sooner they will start delivering to other regions.

 

[EricUSC]

Troy, the delivery estimator asks for the "Ownership status on 15 Sep '17". Is this the cutoff date for getting existing owner priority or is it just a guess? Is it possible that the cutoff date already passed or can the cutoff date be 28 Jul '17?

Reason this is of concern for me because I have a pending transaction on a used Tesla and will not be registering the car until the car gets shipped from the seller's house. If the cutoff might be 28 Jul '17, then maybe I need to ask the shipper to hurry up and confirm a ship date (or find a new shipper with more trucks).

 

[Troy]

Hi, @EricUSC. The date is my best guess. It was 31 Aug '17 until recently but I updated it to 15 Sep '17 a few days ago because I'm calculating that production of RWD employee cars for California will continue until October 3rd, 2017. So I figured they should ask for configurations at least a couple of weeks before that. Of course, it could be sooner.

In addition, they might not have a cut off date for owner priorities. They could just continue giving priority to anybody who buys a Tesla before Tesla sends them an invite to configure or before the person confirms their configuration. I don't know which one. If there is no cut off date, it would be a little unusual to give priority to let's say to somebody from Europe who buys a Model S in February 2018 and reserves a Model 3 as well.

The reason the Estimator shows the 15 Sep '17 date is that I wanted people to realize they will lose priority if they sell their Tesla now. My theory was that Tesla would look at MyTesla accounts to determine if a reservation holder is an existing owner. Check out my message here from a few months ago. This theory seems now more likely because apparently, that's the same thing Tesla employees are saying now according to this message.

However, notice that, because you waited in line, ownership priority will have little effect because you are already close o the front of the queue in this region. If you had reserved a couple of days later, it would make a big difference.

 

[tsla007]

looks like I'll win the cap after all. All employees will be done q3 2017 which ends in Sept. Falls perfectly for max incentives for model 3 buyers.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Roy Wasson. Here is the screenshot. The calculations have changed slightly since last time because I updated RWD/AWD percentages. By the way, the reason why AWD doesn't make much difference for you is that East Coast will get RWD late too. I estimate that RWD production for your region will start on Jan 2nd, 2018 and AWD on Jan 16th, 2018. There isn't much extra delay if you prefer AWD.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. The delivery event is now a few days away and I want to add a few comments about range and degradation that could be helpful when deciding what range you need. There are two important things you need to know:

1. The battery will degrade quickly at the beginning and then degradation will slow down. That means for most of your ownership duration, the car will have a few percent less battery capacity than it initially had.
2. EPA rated range is not real world range. EPA ratings are a little too optimistic.

1. Tesla's battery degradation curve looks like this. For example, at 40,000 miles, you should expect 95% of original capacity left.
2. EPA rated range is the advertised range in North America. The numbers are also published on EPA's website here. Of course, we don't know Model 3's EPA rated range numbers yet but the Estimator shows the numbers I would expect to see in row 24. EPA's test procedure consists of 5 different cycles. These are explained on this page on the test details tab.

Speed is the most important factor that affects consumption. The problem with EPA's 5 cycle test is that 3 of the 5 cycles are for city driving at 21.2 mph average speed. That's the reason why EPA rated range numbers are overly optimistic. Based on survey data, on average real world range is 85% of EPA rated range. However, that's the average throughout the year. In summer, you might get 93% of EPA rated range. In winter, you might get 77%.

Considering both degradation and winter range together, you should be prepared to get only 0.95*0.77= 73% of EPA rated range. For example, if the Model 3 75D has 297 mi EPA rated range, that would be 217 miles real world range in winter after your battery has 95% capacity left at 40,000 miles.

However, don't blame Tesla for overly optimistic EPA rated range numbers. Tesla didn't decide EPA's test criteria. Tesla doesn't even like using this range unit but they are required to use it in the USA. For example, the window stickers show this number. However, Tesla cars outside North America don't display EPA rated range at all. Instead, they display a different range unit Tesla created called Typical Range. Typical Range is more realistic and it is closer to real world range.

 

[SageBrush]

Considering both degradation and winter range together, you should be prepared to get only 0.95*0.77= 73% of EPA rated range. For example, if the Model 3 75D has 297 mi EPA rated range, that would be 217 miles real world range in winter after your battery has 95% capacity left at 40,000 miles.

Reasonable and informative. I have two nits to pick:

1. We should start with highway range and not combined, particularly with the Model 3 that will have an atypical mass and Cd weighting on drive cycles compared to other cars.

2. Winter means snow or rain.