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You don't feel like the AWD date push will cause an increase in RWD orders? People are going to hear that tax clock ticking.
Yes, I estimate 480K before cancellations and 440K after. The last number Tesla released was 373K.
Elon repeatedly said AWD in late 2017 or early 2018. Now it looks like earliest is September or October 2018. That means $3,750 tax credits instead of $7,500. I don't know why it is delayed so much.
Also huge delays with Right-Hand-Drive versions. Elon had said summer 2018. Now they just say 2019. It is unclear when in 2019. To me, it sounds like the parts for AWD and RHD are not ready yet.
It's in the FAQs: Owning one Tesla gets you priority for one model 3. Owning two Teslas gets you priority on two model 3s.Only the first reservation receives priority
Just last month during the shareholder meeting Elon said late 2017 or early 2018 for AWD.
Info from earnings calls and shareholder meetings is more accurate than marketing info.