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Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

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Is it possibly Tesla has learned their lesson on providing dates and has moved to under promising, in order to over deliver? I saw this because they have been burned so many times in the past and seem like they are being more realistic with the M3 and even are a tiny bit ahead of where they planned to be getting that approval 2 weeks early. With that being said, are they being more pessimistic about AWD delivery times to buffer any issues that come up while spinning up the RWD line?

I say that because after touring the factory and seeing the MS and MX on the same production line with all the variations outside of a possible different inverter (unlikely) the only change with the dual motor is the motor and software. Outside of the obvious ease of producing a car with 1 motor versus 2 the only reason to wait to ship the dual motor variant is because they aren't ready to build that second motor yet. We can assume form the MS and MX that the second motor in the M3 will be a smaller motor like it's big brother and they may not be ready to produce that motor, on top of the fact it is easier to just not have to worry about having to produce it.

I am in the same boat as a lot of people appear to be. We really want AWD but don't have the patience to wait for it or can't afford to miss that tax incentive. As a current owner in St. Louis my M3 AWD would be July-Sept where RWD would be Oct-Dec. I too am thinking of ordering a RWD just because my car is old and I don't know that I can wait until a year from now to get my car.

Based on what everyone else is seeing in their estimates, since some other current owners on the west coast who waited in line like me, have the same dates as me, I have to assume that my geography pushes me towards the end of those estimates.

I hope someone at Tesla is reading this forum to see that they may be leaving a TON of money on the table by delaying the AWD version to late next year because many of us may just take the RWD and be less satisfied with our purchase because we need the tax credit/don't have patience (I'm the latter).
 
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I'm in Texas and waited in line (paid deposit around noon CST). I also have a CPO on order that should be delivered in a few weeks but already shows up in mytesla. Do these dates line up with current owners or non-owners in Texas?
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I dont understand why Canadians have to wait till the end on 2018.... we basically have the same requirements for how vehicles are made. Plus we share the same plot of land as you 'merican's

Different import requirements/approvals. And probably the biggest reason is that Tesla is trying to optimize how many US people can claim the $7,500 federal tax credit. Every foreign car sold is one less US person that would be able to get the full credit.
 
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The way I see it, Tesla is spending a calendar quarter to build out the base version (standard battery). See pic attached. That's why I think Tesla is delaying dual motors. We mostly thought that Tesla would build out the most expensive optioned cars, but if they spent a quarter building out the standard battery version, that takes time away from building high optioned dual motors. I might be wrong though. But I'm hoping that Tesla made a bad estimation of how much rear wheel drive they're budgeting their time for. I (and many others) want to be within the time frame of the full US federal tax credit of $7,500 for dual motors configuration. I think building out the standard battery version is killing our chances to get the dual motors sooner.

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Currently my bet is simply that the ramp up is going to be slower than we all imagined and the configurator timelines are reasonably accurate. True, Elon keeps repeating the 5k/10k weekly goals. But frankly, he is a pie in the sky guy anyway. The configurator data seems to be based on much more sober engineering data of when it will be actually available as opposed to when Elon thinks he can ramp up. Remember how Elon was forecasting a 100k production run rate for the S a full year before it actually happened?

Wrt to AWD. I think here is how it went. Engineering tells Elon : we can get it ready by Spring 2018. Elon tells the public : AWD for early 2018. Public assumes : deliveries in January 2018. While in reality that Spring 2018 estimate from engineering was first release candidate off the line in March 2018 and is only the start of a process that culminates in a first delivery in July.
 
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Here's my thoughts. For one, Tesla (finally) gave conservative estimates so nobody can blame them being late. It might be also based on wrong estimates (like Troy said above).

Also I'm sure some number of people will cancel the reservation. If not now, later when comes the time to actually place the order. That'll clean up the queue some amount.

The S-curve posted had 5k/week by Dec, so I think the latest version from Troy is fairly accurate in terms of units delivered.

Based on the screenshots for estimates, it looks like they prioritize owners over geolocation. So me in Seattle, non-owner, have to wait until all owners in east coast have been satisfied. That's a bummer (for me. Good for them). I'm still holding on to the hope that I get mine for Christmas present.
 
@schonelucht, when you listen to Elon here, doesn't it sound like late December or early January? Before he said this he also went back and forth between late 2017 and early 2018 in his tweets. Maybe something has changed since then. Hopefully, we will find out more in the conference call on Aug 2nd.

Here are a few theories to explain why Tesla might have changed AWD from January to July 2018:

1. They want to try under promise and over deliver for a change.
2. They won't reach 5000 units/week in 2017.
3. Their RWD estimate is too high because it's based on employee data.
4. They are still working on AWD parts or AWD machinery that will build the parts.
5. They need the money from RWD sales to purchase the AWD production line robots.
 
If there are Tesla owners who reserved recently, can you add a screenshot of Tesla's estimator?

@TEG, thanks for the tip. I have come across at least two owners who reserved recently. We should be able to find out more.
 
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Hmm... Yeah, I was just basing on the owner vs non-owner line waiters. It does look like being an owner, but waiting a long time to reserve gives you a huge bump compared to non-owners that waited.
 
Hi, @TEG. Yes for line waiters being an owner or not makes little difference because the person is already close to the front of the queue.

However, I need to work a little more on that because it looks like there is no cut-off date for owner priorities. In other words, owners who will reserve in the upcoming weeks/months will still jump ahead of line waiters. That's how it looks like to me.
 
@schonelucht, when you listen to Elon here, doesn't it sound like late December or early January?

It sounds so. Look, I am not blaming you at all for reading the tealeaves. You get more right than everyone here when it comes to predicting Tesla production. But with 20/20 hindsight, maybe he was just talking about the configurator.

2. They won't reach 5000 units/week in 2017.
4. They are still working on AWD parts or AWD machinery that will build the parts.

I would put my money on either of these. Or maybe a little of column A and a little of column B.

The reason that overseas orders will be filled so late in the game however, I think is more likely due to cash-flow. They need US orders to pay for (or be the backstop for financing for) filling the pipeline. At 2000 cars/week going overseas, $40k/car 8 weeks average pipeline that's $640M right there. No mouse nuts!
 
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From/for this thread:
Tesla Official Model 3 Delivery Estimator Available
I note these ranges:

310_RWD 220_RWD AWD2018
Oct-Dec Dec-Feb Aug-Oct (Employee)
Oct-Dec Dec-Feb Aug-Oct (LineWait/Owner)
Oct-Dec Dec-Feb Jul-Sep (LineWait/Owner)
Nov-Jan Jan-Mar Sep-Nov (LineWait/Non-Owner)
Nov-Jan Feb-Apr Oct-Dec (LineWait)
Jan-Mar Mar-May Nov-Jan2019 (Online 3/31/2016)
Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Dec-Feb2019 (non-owner Jul 3 2017 reserve)

I find it interesting that they can have the same date range for the initial production, but then have different date ranges for the base models, and future AWD models.
 
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