Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[melindav]

@melindav, that's an interesting theory. I have a spreadsheet where I can enter any date and it shows Tesla's global and USA sales until that date. I have checked the global S/X sales numbers, and they look like this:

17 March 2016: 122,321 units
31 March 2016: 124,599 units

The difference is 2,278 units. There is 352,XXX here on 17 March. This could be anything from 352,001 to 352,999. I think the smallest number we had on 31st March 2016 was 363,XXX. (363,001-363,999). Based on this calculation, the employee reservations might be between 7,724 - 9,720 units.

The number I'm using is 5,627. That's my best guess based on research but the theory you came up with makes sense. So, I will increase the number a little in the next update which should be soon. Thanks

Btw, currently, the calculations show 12 Oct for first non-employee deliveries. Increasing employee reservations would delay that by a week to around 19 Oct 2017.

I can't take credit for it - back when the numbers were visible on the MyTesla code, there were current owners that went back and looked at their older S / X / R orders and corroborated the numbers were consecutive back thru the earlier vehicles.

 

[aseelam]

Placed order on 22nd April 2016 at 7:30 PM

 

[McFlurri]

damn. was about 20th in line in Toronto, Ontario and I get a delivery date of "Late 2018"

 

[Ulmo]

Troy, a few observations ... as a Model S owner with two early 3/31/16 reservations. Hope this helps. Tesla SSO - Login

• Only the first reservation receives priority
• The second reservation receives geographic priority
• Only 1 month improvement for 1st 310 Mile reservation (Oct vs. Nov 2017)
• Only 1 month improvement for 1st 220 Mile reservation (Dec vs. Jan 2018)
• Only 2 month improvement for 1st dual motor AWD reservation (July vs. Sep 2018)

View attachment 238468

I also live close to the factory (under an hour drive, and under a half hour drive from my usual work locations) and also have one Model S currently listed under MyTesla, but I get entirely different results:

• I walked in my local store March 31, 2016 before the reveal to put in the reservation. I intentionally came in the afternoon to avoid lines. At the time, I had no Tesla's. I did have a Model X reservation.
• I bought my Model S December 16, 2016.
  
• MyTesla currently says I own one Model S, which I actually sold on July 10, 2017, but DMV uses old fashioned stuff called "paper" and "postal mail", so it's taking weeks to get the paperwork into their computers, and Tesla requires that paper finished before they update MyTesla (grrrrr). (Both me and the buyer are furious at our respective DMV's for taking so long.)
  
• When I buy my Model 3, most likely at that time MyTesla will not have any type of Model S or X on it.
• I reserved at the Seaside store in Monterey Bay.
  
• A year and a half improvement for 310 mile RWD (Oct 2017 vs Early 2019) for my 1st vs 2nd res.
  
• A year and a quarter improvement for 220 mile RWD (Dec 2017 vs Early 2019)
  
• Half a year improvement for AWD (July 2018 vs Early 2019)

I'm concerned that since I sold my Model S prior to buying a Model 3, that I will be shoved back to basically the very end of all lines everywhere. What is the actual logic going on here? Is Santa Cruz considered further away than Mars? This is yet another thing I don't like about the government fooling around with postal mail and paperwork: it takes absolutely forever to find out what's going on, and it delays everything.

 

[MP3Mike]

If AWD drive is that late, they won't have enough RWD orders until Sep 2018.

The FAQ says that AWD starts in Spring, and I assume they mean late Spring. I have seen a lot of people report that Tesla's estimator starts with July for AWD...

I was going to wait for AWD, but with it being this late and the tax credit getting reduced as a result, I will likely order the RWD version as soon as a non-black interior is available. Though not earlier than January because I want the new Oregon $2,500 tax credit too. (Tesla says Nov-Jan for First Production.)

So I think you would need to significantly adjust your AWD take rate.

 

[kierants]

I have feb - April for 310 range 49K$ version.

 

[ArekSredzki]

Here’s my estimate. I was an intern when reservations were made but no longer an employee.

 

[Ulmo]

Here’s my estimate. I was an intern when reservations were made but no longer an employee.

Aha, a few things:

• Your early (pre-March 31, 2016) reservation + your "intern" status seems to hold even after you are no longer an intern or employee.
• Your Long Range and your Short Range rear wheel dates are the same as mine (March 31, 2016 in-store in-California, not a Model S owner then, listed as a Model S owner now (was true Dec 16, 2016 - Jul 10, 2017)). However, your All Wheel Drive quote is one month after mine.

I wonder:

• Once you are put up early in a queue for any reason (before March 31, 2016 reservation, intern, employee, waiting in line reservation in store, in store reservation before reveal, March 31 reservation before reveal, March 31 reservation, Model S or X owner, employee after March 31, geographical location close to factory, in California, in USA), can you "fall" back from that, or is your promotion sticky? How sticky?
  
• Did my Model S purchase change my reservation priority? If so, what were the cutoffs? I bought my Model S after reserving for Model 3 and sold it before ordering a Model 3 (not yet reflected in MyTesla).
• So basically, which promotions work after the reservation, and which promotions are demotable?

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I have a new theory that would explain a few things. I think this is what happened:

1. On 6th June 2017, Elon said AWD configuration will be available at the end of this year if they are lucky but more likely early next year. Source
2. I think after Elon said that they asked employees what configuration they want and 50% said RWD. If you look at the table below, RWD is popular in California. Among employees, I think RWD will be more popular than the average California buyer. Let's say 50%.
3. I think Tesla is using that 50% number for their current estimations because they don't have any other data to use. This would explain why RWD takes so long and AWD is delayed so much in Tesla's estimations.

If the RWD percentage Tesla uses is unrealistically high, their estimations should also show a short production period for AWD. In other words, Tesla should expect that clearing the AWD orders should take less time than it actually will. Do they? I think yes they do because yesterday Elon said, "if you order a Model 3 now, probably you will get it towards the end of next year" (source). Why would he say that if he knew that ~66.5% of Model 3 buyers want AWD?

That's the problem. He doesn't know and Tesla doesn't know that because they haven't asked people yet but we know it because the data is available on the model3tracker survey here. This is a popular survey with 9000 participants.

There is a tricky problem here. If Tesla is still working on AWD or Performance parts, they might think that they have time until July 2018 because 50% of people want RWD. That would be incorrect because even though 50% of employees might want RWD, the global average is 36% based on survey data. That makes a big difference. In other words, they don't have as much time as they think to finalize AWD and Performance parts.

One thing is almost certain: Federal tax credits will drop from $7,500 to $3,750 for deliveries after 30th June 2018. Currently, even employee AWD estimates by Tesla are after that (earliest is July 2018). However, I predict that this will change and there will be AWD deliveries in Q2 2018.

Interestingly, if this theory is correct, it would mean Tesla has messed up and used the wrong RWD percentage in their estimations and while doing so, they have encouraged people to switch from AWD to RWD because people don't want to lose the federal tax credits. However, the percentage of people who would switch is limited because the federal tax credits affect only USA buyers and not international buyers. In short, I wouldn't be surprised if the AWD estimate you see on Tesla's website moves sooner.

Tesla really should have asked people if they want RWD or AWD long ago. They kind of messed up things. They are displaying incorrect estimates with low AWD take and these estimates, in turn, move people even more away from AWD.

 

[boiler81]

Hi, everybody. I have a new theory that would explain a few things. I think this is what happened:

1. On 6th June 2017, Elon said AWD configuration will be available at the end of this year if they are lucky but more likely early next year. Source
2. I think after Elon said that they asked employees what configuration they want and 50% said RWD. If you look at the table below, RWD is popular in California. Among employees, I think RWD will be more popular than the average California buyer. Let's say 50%.
3. I think Tesla is using that 50% number for their current estimations because they don't have any other data to use. This would explain why RWD takes so long and AWD is delayed so much in Tesla's estimations.

If the RWD percentage Tesla uses is unrealistically high, their estimations should also show a short production period for AWD. In other words, Tesla should expect that clearing the AWD orders should take less time than it actually will. Do they? I think yes they do because yesterday Elon said, "if you order a Model 3 now, probably you will get it towards the end of next year" (source). Why would he say that if he knew that ~66.5% of Model 3 buyers want AWD?

That's the problem. He doesn't know and Tesla doesn't know that because they haven't asked people yet but we know it because the data is available on the model3tracker survey here. This is a popular survey with 9000 participants.

There is a tricky problem here. If Tesla is still working on AWD or Performance parts, they might think that they have time until July 2018 because 50% of people want RWD. That would be incorrect because even though 50% of employees might want RWD, the global average is 36% based on survey data. That makes a big difference. In other words, they don't have as much time as they think to finalize AWD and Performance parts.

One thing is almost certain: Federal tax credits will drop from $7,500 to $3,750 for deliveries after 30th June 2018. Currently, even employee AWD estimates by Tesla are after that (earliest is July 2018). However, I predict that this will change and there will be AWD deliveries in Q2 2018.

Interestingly, if this theory is correct, it would mean Tesla has messed up and used the wrong RWD percentage in their estimations and while doing so, they have encouraged people to switch from AWD to RWD because people don't want to lose the federal tax credits. However, the percentage of people who would switch is limited because the federal tax credits affect only USA buyers and not international buyers. In short, I wouldn't be surprised if the AWD estimate you see on Tesla's website moves sooner.

Tesla really should have asked people if they want RWD or AWD long ago. They kind of messed up things. They are displaying incorrect estimates with low AWD take and these estimates, in turn, move people even more away from AWD.

It could also be that they know many folks waiting for AWD and P version could afford a Model S and they are still trying to anti-sell the higher package Model 3's.
No surprise that they have a link button to Model S Inventory on the bottom of the M3 estimate page. Funny no link to Model 3 from the Model S page

 

[N5329K]

One thing is almost certain: Federal tax credits will drop from $7,500 to $3,750 for deliveries after 30th June 2018.
Is that really so certain? I would think the tax credit phase out date will depend on how successful the first batch of Model 3 cars turns out to be (glitch-wise), how long it takes to correct the problems that show up, and how successful the ramp will be. It takes a really complex system (remember those "10,000 parts?) to build a car, and "all complex systems operate in the failure mode."
I wonder if you're assuming a 100% execution rate here, with near-perfect cars, a near-perfect ramp and no oops-like discoveries early next year of wear components that have worn out unexpectedly.
That sort of thing.
Robin

 

[Oloron]

@Troy

Thanks for pulling this all together. Great help/resource!

Two things I'd add:
1) At least Tesla will now get a better idea of what people want through the Delivery Estimator tool. The number of people selecting AWD, even with the long lead times, may surprise them.
2) The one aspect of all this that is probably good on Tesla's part is the laser focus on getting up the S curve with a single, simple model. I suspect one of the reasons that the AWD projections are so far out is that they are extremely uncertain and in the face of uncertainty its far better to put out an estimate on the late side. Until they can get well up the curve on the RWD models, it would be a horrible idea to launch the AWD model. (i.e. climbing the steep section of one S curve is hard enough - trying to climb two at once would be suicidal.)

The challenge with AWD volume production estimation is likely that AWD cumulative volume is likely a function of two sequential manufacturing S curves of unknown/variable slopes. The first for the RWD ramp up, the second for the AWD ramp up because while they may design/plan, they are unlikely to attempt to ramp up the AWD production until they are up around 5k/week for the RWD. In addition, the drivers of the slope of those two ramp curves are dependent making the overall uncertainty greater.

 

[dhanson865]

Could they not just build a while bunch of body shells and then place the different batteries in them to make the ramp up quickier?

Unless you think they are software locking the charger it's not just the battery that changes. 40a vs 32a L2 charging.

It is possible the main fuse is different, the inverter hardware (or at least inverter firmware).

Also the top speed, supercharging curve, acceleration curve, max amps, and such would require a different firmware. Just rolling out one config allows them to use one firmware for the center screen / drive computer / autopilot / whatever.

 

[SergeyUser]

@Troy,

Like @Oloron have mentioned above, Tesla is already collecting RWD/AWD percentages via their delivery estimation tool. So if your theory is correct, we should see an adjustment (acceleration) of AWD delivery estimates in the next, say 2-3 months. If it would not happen, then it means something else is happening here.

 

[FloridaJohn]

I think Tesla is somewhat hedging their bets with the timeline for the AWD models. They would prefer everyone to buy their expensive first production models now instead of waiting for other options. One way to encourage that is to show a long lead time for the AWD models. This will make people second guess their need for the AWD model and go ahead with what they are building now. You can see that affect right here in that thread.

I also notice that they don't really give out any specs on the AWD model yet. So the benefits of the AWD are unknown, but the specs of what you can buy now are available. Does anyone really think that the AWD Long Range model will have the same range as the RWD Long Range model? That is unlike any other Tesla model comparison between single motor and dual motor models of equal battery size.

 

[MP3Mike]

Is that really so certain? I would think the tax credit phase out date will depend on how successful the first batch of Model 3 cars turns out to be (glitch-wise),

I don't think that matters. They will be able to sell every Model 3 they can make. And even the S&X sales are getting close to pushing them over the 200k mark.

 

[Xevex]

Sad, very sad. I wish I knew about the Model 3 sooner.

 

[InsideScooper]

All the speculation is helping keep my mind off less important things, like work. Thanks for all the guesswork. Not to be sacrilegious, but let's suppose "a friend" of mine is thinking about a used 2014 Lexus IS-F for $28k, 35k miles, 0-60 in 4.2 sec. What would he be giving up (besides 1.3 cf of cargo space, $1.5k/yr burning fossil fuel, and missing out on the most technologically advanced and cool brand in the world)? Seems a bit cheaper than a future M3 that may match the 0-60 time. Of course you couldn't compare a 4.2 0-60 time to any Tesla that runs in the low 3's. That would be an unfair comparison. Used 2008 Lexus IS F Features & Specs | Edmunds

 

[InsideScooper]

Sorry, looks like the price of a 2013/14 Lexus IS-F would be about $45k. Not sure why one was listed at just $28k. Must be something wrong with it.

 

[soxs]

I think Tesla is somewhat hedging their bets with the timeline for the AWD models. They would prefer everyone to buy their expensive first production models now instead of waiting for other options. One way to encourage that is to show a long lead time for the AWD models. This will make people second guess their need for the AWD model and go ahead with what they are building now. You can see that affect right here in that thread.

That could be risky. Given @Troy analysis of the survey data, there's a large pool of people interested in AWD (myself included). By the end of 2018 there is a good chance there will be other quality EVs alternatives out there. I think that Telsa has a _huge_ head start on battery production, factory automation, superchargers, and AP, but without the tax credit for AWD I might put a deposit down (when they open it to the US) on the Audi EV Crossover. I really want to support Tesla (and Musk) and I have my qualms about Audi, but my 15yo A4 has treated me very well. I think it's great that Musk is trying to optimize for the greater good and deliver as many cars as possible. But with 500k reservations, someone is going to get the short end of the stick. You can't make everyone happy.

[this will probably get me kicked off the forum...] I think Audi is smart to start with a crossover. I would choose a Y over a 3, if both were available. If you took a nicely equipped Q5 and added $20k to make it a true EV with some form of AP, that puts you around $72k - $7,500 (credit) = $64.5k. I estimate a fully loaded, non-performance, AWD M3 to come in right around $65k. That does make me pause and think. That being said, Audi has failed to bring to market their last EV concepts and I have no idea if they can deliver on any of the marketing hype. But, as it stands right now, I have 13+ months to wait and see.