Hi, everybody. I have a new theory that would explain a few things. I think this is what happened:
1. On 6th June 2017, Elon said AWD configuration will be available at the end of this year if they are lucky but more likely early next year.
Source
2. I think after Elon said that they asked employees what configuration they want and 50% said RWD. If you look at the table below, RWD is popular in California. Among employees, I think RWD will be more popular than the average California buyer. Let's say 50%.
3. I think Tesla is using that 50% number for their current estimations because they don't have any other data to use. This would explain why RWD takes so long and AWD is delayed so much in Tesla's estimations.
If the RWD percentage Tesla uses is unrealistically high, their estimations should also show a short production period for AWD. In other words, Tesla should expect that clearing the AWD orders should take less time than it actually will. Do they? I think yes they do because yesterday Elon said, "if you order a Model 3 now, probably you will get it towards the end of next year" (
source). Why would he say that if he knew that ~66.5% of Model 3 buyers want AWD?
That's the problem. He doesn't know and Tesla doesn't know that because they haven't asked people yet but we know it because the data is available on the model3tracker survey
here. This is a popular survey with 9000 participants.
There is a tricky problem here. If Tesla is still working on AWD or Performance parts, they might think that they have time until July 2018 because 50% of people want RWD. That would be incorrect because even though 50% of employees might want RWD, the global average is 36% based on survey data. That makes a big difference. In other words, they don't have as much time as they think to finalize AWD and Performance parts.
One thing is almost certain: Federal tax credits will drop from $7,500 to $3,750 for deliveries after 30th June 2018. Currently, even employee AWD estimates by Tesla are after that (earliest is July 2018). However, I predict that this will change and there will be AWD deliveries in Q2 2018.
Interestingly, if this theory is correct, it would mean Tesla has messed up and used the wrong RWD percentage in their estimations and while doing so, they have encouraged people to switch from AWD to RWD because people don't want to lose the federal tax credits. However, the percentage of people who would switch is limited because the federal tax credits affect only USA buyers and not international buyers. In short, I wouldn't be surprised if the AWD estimate you see on Tesla's website moves sooner.
Tesla really should have asked people if they want RWD or AWD long ago. They kind of messed up things. They are displaying incorrect estimates with low AWD take and these estimates, in turn, move people even more away from AWD.