Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Sonny Daze]

However surely someone at Tesla has been working on ironing out any regulation issues already? They had already planned to start shipping to Canada within 6-8 months anyway.

I'm sure they are prepared, I was only saying that I didn't think they could take cars built for the US market and sell them in Canada.

Here is a post on M3OC from a rental company that tried to bring Model 3s into Canada.

Delivery estimator survey for Canadians

 

[Reciprocity]

I can't think of any other reason for Tesla to move all Canadian estimates for First Production and AWD from Late 2018 to Mid 2018 and then move most US AWD estimates back to Late 2018 except to extend the US tax credit windows. Yes, there is a new focus on higher margin cars, but there are plenty of those buyers in the US. In addition, I don't think they are going to attempt this without making it happen. They are in control of the sale of the vehicles, so they can continue producing cars without delivering them if need be.

Edit: I would think the Canadian builds would start later than Troy suggests because of the number of March-May and April-June First Production delivery estimate windows in the US and I don't know if I agree with the idea of a complete shutdown of US deliveries for weeks.

Edit: Ignore most of this.. Just read Canada is now late 2018 instead of 2019 so it does not impact tax credits.

I think one reason for the change is that a large majority of the Owners seem to be wanting AWD so there is little demand for SR or LR RWD among owners. I am not sure why they wouldnt just start inviting non-owners if thats the case today. I honestly dont get the Canada thing at all because it would make more sense to start those Late 2018 once the credit has been cut in half in the US. Dont get me wrong, I am happy for Canadians, but it doesnt make sense. Is there a similar tax incentive there that is also set to expire? Tesla would almost have stop delivering cars in the US to push back the tax credit phase out to start Q3, so I guess there is some chance that is what we are seeing with Canada?

 

[03DSG]

Wow, didn't know about that. That'd be a huge motivation to get shipments in early. Even if it didn't impact which Q the 200K US deliveries mark happened, every vehicle to Ontario would be about 50% more rebate cash to customers than the same vehicle in the US.

And in Ontario this is a true rebate, not a tax credit. You buy an EV with 5 seatbelts and a battery bigger than 16kWh you get a cheque for $14k plus up to $500 towards a charger and $500 towards the electrical work. $15k total.
Our June election will either keep it or kill it. The rebate takes a big bite out of the US/CDN exchange rate.

 

[TEG]

I wonder if the model3owners club web site had anything to do with it? They are based in Canada...

 

[insaneoctane]

@Troy , can you add a row or two to capture expected reserve date? Currently, owners are showing 3-6 weeks. Although the math is very simple (subtract 3 to 6 weeks from delivery date),it might go a long way towards having a little bit of "good news" in the form of something with an earlier date....

 

[Troy]

@Troy , can you add a row or two to capture expected reserve date? Currently, owners are showing 3-6 weeks. Although the math is very simple (subtract 3 to 6 weeks from delivery date),it might go a long way towards having a little bit of "good news" in the form of something with an earlier date....

No problem. I have added invite date. Also, I have reduced the take rate for AWD. Yesterday I had increased the percentage of AWD orders because if $7,500 continues until the end of 2018, more people would select AWD compared to $7,500 until 30 Sep 2018. However, Tesla is insisting on 2,500/week by the end of Q1. That means more Model 3 production in Q2 which makes the Canada idea less likely to succeed for federal tax credits.

 

[Falkirk]

I'm not sure if this is new wording or not but the Model 3 faq shows this now (Model 3 Reservations FAQ)

"When will I be invited to configure my Model 3, and when can I take delivery?
Model 3 reservation holders are receiving invitations to order and design Model 3 based on the time and date that they placed their reservation. Current Tesla owners have priority as a thank you for their support.

Deliveries will start in the United States first, with international deliveries starting in left-hand drive markets in mid 2018, followed by right-hand drive markets in early 2019."

 

[kbM3]

No problem. I have added invite date. Also, I have reduced the take rate for AWD. Yesterday I had increased the percentage of AWD orders because if $7,500 continues until the end of 2018, more people would select AWD compared to $7,500 until 30 Sep 2018. However, Tesla is insisting on 2,500/week by the end of Q1. That means more Model 3 production in Q2 which makes the Canada idea less likely to succeed for federal tax credits.

I ordered online Mar 31st 2016 at 7:25 PST. My delivery estimate from Tesla is Apr-Jun. According to the spreadsheet it is end of July.

Are you sure that my Tesla estimate is that far off? Are you pushing Canada Mid 2018 estimates ahead of U.S. Apr-Jun estimates?

 

[TEG]

I'm not sure if this is new wording or not but the Model 3 faq shows this now (Model 3 Reservations FAQ)

"When will I be invited to configure my Model 3, and when can I take delivery?
Model 3 reservation holders are receiving invitations to order and design Model 3 based on the time and date that they placed their reservation. Current Tesla owners have priority as a thank you for their support.

Deliveries will start in the United States first, with international deliveries starting in left-hand drive markets in mid 2018, followed by right-hand drive markets in early 2019."

The plot thickens. The idea to divert enough production to non-USA customers to stave off the 200K US tax credit phase out was questioned because it didn't seem like there were quite enough Canadian orders to make that work. But if they divert everything (when they get close to 200K) and ship to other left-hand drive markets, then maybe it is enough... (?)

Do we have reservation holders in other LHD countries (besides USA & Canada) showing Mid 2018 delivery estimate now?

 

[Troy]

@kbM3,

I'm looking at the numbers and I'm considering changing the calculations.

On the invites spreadsheet here 18 owners have entered their AWD estimates in the last 3 days. All the estimates you see there are new data because we deleted the old data when Tesla made the changes. Out of 18 owners, 6 are reporting Mid-2018 for AWD and 12 Late-2018. That means 33% is Mid-2018.

I estimate 26,320 total owner reservations in the US and 6,880 AWD owner reservations excluding the performance version. I'm also estimating 15,487 AWD reservations from Canada. That means 6,880 + 15,487 = 22,367 total AWD production by the end of August. Currently, the spreadsheet estimator has 54,000 AWD production by the end of August which is 46% of 116K total production in 2018 until that point.

I think I have overdone it. I allocated too much production to AWD. It looks like AWD production will be slower. Otherwise, all owners from the US would see Mid-2018 AWD estimates instead of 33%. The problem is, the spreadsheet estimator is not easy to change. Therefore I'm also looking at doing a major redesign.

Tesla uses the terms Early, Mid, Late. I assume they mean the following:
Early: Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr
Mid: May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Late: Sep, Oct, Nov, Sep

 

[mrtian97]

I met a non Tesla owner at the Service Center in Buena Pk, California, he said he placed his reservation on the first day and he will be able to place his Model 3 Order tomorrow for the LR with premium interior.

And this morning I received an email reminder from Tesla that I can place my order (I am current owner and placed my Model 3 reservation in April 1, 2016. I been invited since Jan 4, just rather wait for SR model.

My read on this is that most of the current owner is holding out from placing their order for the Model 3 LR with premium, so Tesla move down the line for reservation to sell this trim level first (which made sense)

 

[Thomas Edison]

@kbM3,

I'm looking at the numbers and I'm considering changing the calculations.

On the invites spreadsheet here 18 owners have entered their AWD estimates in the last 3 days. All the estimates you see there are new data because we deleted the old data when Tesla made the changes. Out of 18 owners, 6 are reporting Mid-2018 for AWD and 12 Late-2018. That means 33% is Mid-2018.

I estimate 26,320 total owner reservations in the US and 6,880 AWD owner reservations excluding the performance version. I'm also estimating 15,487 AWD reservations from Canada. That means 6,880 + 15,487 = 22,367 total AWD production by the end of August. Currently, the spreadsheet estimator has 54,000 AWD production by the end of August which is 46% of 116K total production in 2018 until that point.

I think I have overdone it. I allocated too much production to AWD. It looks like AWD production will be slower. Otherwise, all owners from the US would see Mid-2018 AWD estimates instead of 33%. The problem is, the spreadsheet estimator is not easy to change. Therefore I'm also looking at doing a major redesign.

Tesla uses the terms Early, Mid, Late. I assume they mean the following:
Early: Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr
Mid: May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Late: Sep, Oct, Nov, Sep

How long do you think the redesign will take?

 

[TEG]

I met a non Tesla owner at the Service Center in Buena Pk, California, he said he placed his reservation on the first day and he will be able to place his Model 3 Order tomorrow for the LR with premium interior...

How would he know that he can place an order tomorrow ?!
Until the order configurator goes live tor you, there is no way to know when that will happen.

 

[Troy]

Calculations have been updated again to reflect the lower AWD production rate than initially thought. Only a third of US owners have reported Mid-2018 estimates for AWD. The rest have Late-2018.

@mrtian97, maybe the person you talked to was a previous owner. The invites spreadsheet is very active. In the last 3 days, 185 non-owners from the US have updated their estimates and none have reported receiving an invite yet.

@Thomas Edison, the update is done. I didn't do a redesign.

 

[Model 3]

Do we have reservation holders in other LHD countries (besides USA & Canada) showing Mid 2018 delivery estimate now?

Elon has said that Norway will be first out, and as far as I have seen no one here has anything but 2019 as their estimate. But they may surprise some lucky owners here in Q2 if they need to send cars over here and they are type approved by EU.

... one other alternative (if it is not yet type approved by EU) is to send over some cars as show/demo cars to all of Europe. Lets say 2 cars for each shop/dealer/showroom, and a fleet for test-drives? Later they can be sent back to US and sold as inventory cars.

 

[TEG]

From:
List of countries with left-hand traffic - Wikipedia

Looks like there are a lot of other places that have LHD cars. Did they take deposits for reservations in China? They have some Superchargers there...

Norway, Sweden and Finland would make sense from the cold climate AWD connection.

 

[tpatana]

Earlier:
Tesla: Feb-Apr
Troy: Delivery May26

Now:
Tesla: May-Jul
Troy: Delivery Jul10

 

[smak]

@Troy, can you put a link to the delivery estimator in your sig, because you only have the invite spreadsheet, so I have to come back to this thread to get the delivery estimator.

 

[Dr. J]

@Troy, can you put a link to the delivery estimator in your sig, because you only have the invite spreadsheet, so I have to come back to this thread to get the delivery estimator.

There appears to be a link to the spreadsheet in Post # 1 in this thread. HTH.

 

[S2X]

Troy,

First production: Configure Now/ delivery in 3-6 weeks.
AWD: mid 2018
Base/SR: late 2018

I'm a owner, reserved on 4/8/2016 , lives in California. The plan is to purchase the SR with AWD & premium upgrade plus $7500 tax credit. .

Calculations have been updated again to reflect the lower AWD production rate than initially thought. Only a third of US owners have reported Mid-2018 estimates for AWD. The rest have Late-2018.

@mrtian97, maybe the person you talked to was a previous owner. The invites spreadsheet is very active. In the last 3 days, 185 non-owners from the US have updated their estimates and none have reported receiving an invite yet.

@Thomas Edison, the update is done. I didn't do a redesign.