Calculations have been updated again. Tesla says they expect to reach 2,500/week by the end of this quarter but VIN calculations suggest they must be still below 1,500/week right now. Therefore I have lowered the current rate and made the increase steeper in March. The automated battery module production line they are shipping from Germany should help in March.
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ℬête Noire
Active Member
@Thomas Edison, the update is done. I didn't do a redesign.[/QUOTE]
Works out to a tweak for me. I only slipped 3 days, from Sep 26 to Sep 29, for 1st Production.
P.S. Potentially a lot of cash riding on the precision. For my mental health I hope they dodge 200K until Q3 or beat your prediction handily.
Works out to a tweak for me. I only slipped 3 days, from Sep 26 to Sep 29, for 1st Production.
P.S. Potentially a lot of cash riding on the precision. For my mental health I hope they dodge 200K until Q3 or beat your prediction handily.
Why do you think you'll be one of the last owners to get an invite? There's an entire YEAR worth of time after you placed your reservation during which time other owners could have reserved for Model 3.
Correct but most have a delivery date after the first day non-owners. It seems as though sometime in Dec 2017 owner purchases started getting an est. invite date just after the day one non-owners. I'm sure we can get some current owners who reserved in 2018 to chime in with the estimated dates. My local DS also told me right after our car the non-owner cars would start. No dates given.
I don't see why you would be expecting May, though, given that plenty of owners with reservation dates later than yours have already been invited. You should be invited any time now, and March seems likely for delivery
Reserved 10/21/2017 - northern CA - only a few with dates near mine have configured. I know two other owners with dates right near mine still waiting as well. My point is it seems a few owners left with the March- May delivery window and then it should move to non-owners. From talks with DS I am planning on May- no hurry on my end car will be my daughters.
Lucky you, another month+ pushback for me, from April 2 to May 9 (first day reservationist, 11:30 a.m. pacific time but delivery in mountain zone). Still conveniently within the new Tesla window, but I'm getting impatient here.Works out to a tweak for me. I only slipped 3 days, from Sep 26 to Sep 29, for 1st Production.
P.S. Potentially a lot of cash riding on the precision. For my mental health I hope they dodge 200K until Q3 or beat your prediction handily.
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Non-owner here, Mountain, reserved late (12/2/16). Originally Tesla showed Apr 18 - Jun 18 for First Production.
Now Tesla is showing:
First Production - Jul - Sep 18
Standard Range - Early 19
Dual Motor - Late 18
I'm still going with Troy's estimate:
LR - Feb. 3 2019
AWD - Feb. 8 2019
I'm sticking with Troy's estimate. I think they should hire him.
Now Tesla is showing:
First Production - Jul - Sep 18
Standard Range - Early 19
Dual Motor - Late 18
I'm still going with Troy's estimate:
LR - Feb. 3 2019
AWD - Feb. 8 2019
I'm sticking with Troy's estimate. I think they should hire him.
just noticed that your Tim level drop down list only mentions the Long Range Dual Motor... and not the Standard Range Dual Motor.
The estimator from tesla says "Choice of 220 or 310 mile range"
I'm going with the 220 Dual Motor, with premium Upgrades package.
It is a shame that Tesla wont apply the Ontario rebate to the financing like other car dealers do. $14,000 off on financing really lowers the payments!
The estimator from tesla says "Choice of 220 or 310 mile range"
I'm going with the 220 Dual Motor, with premium Upgrades package.
It is a shame that Tesla wont apply the Ontario rebate to the financing like other car dealers do
. $14,000 off on financing really lowers the payments!
I've tried to review some of these discussions and don't see anything related to accuracy of the estimates. Has there been any comparisons between actual owner delivery dates and estimated owner delivery dates?
Hard to say exactly when Tesla will start the non-owner deliveries.
My info is:
In-line, Non-owner Reservation Time: 3/31/16 09:47
Location: Washington State
Trim: LR PUP
Invite: March 11th
Delivery: April 7th
Global Res #: 261 (Sounds completely ridiculous but I did get in line pretty early at the Bellevue Store)
Hard to say exactly when Tesla will start the non-owner deliveries.
My info is:
In-line, Non-owner Reservation Time: 3/31/16 09:47
Location: Washington State
Trim: LR PUP
Invite: March 11th
Delivery: April 7th
Global Res #: 261 (Sounds completely ridiculous but I did get in line pretty early at the Bellevue Store)
A quick look at the North American (and some European) Tesla sites shows all versions of Model X with June delivery estimates.
LRD estimates for US non-owners who reserved on 31 March are showing delivery in July and August. That seems way too optimistic considering Tesla's new Late 2018 info.
october 24 2017 reservation and got invite to configure just now. (owner, cali). spreadsheet is pessimistic by couple weeks for me.
non-owners are coming up soon!
Reciprocity
Active Member
Confirmed, my second reservation was June'ish 2017, owner of an S & X and I just received my second invite.
Edit: waiting on both.. so don't hate on me if you are a line waiter and non-owner. I'm on your side.
Insureit1
Member
Current Model X owner reserved Model 3 April of 2017, just got invite to order, 3 to 6 week delivery time. Coincidentally received official notice from Tesla today that will be repurchasing my problematic Model X. Timing worked out perfect. Hoping the Model 3 has less issues than my Model X.
I just received my invite. Reserved on Dec 31 2017 - current owner. Dang Troy -- I don't know how you do it.. Good Job
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