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Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation [Car announced 04.23.2024]

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They didn’t do inventory cars back then and you couldn’t order the LR for a really long time. I don’t think they were producing LR cars at that time but I definitely could be wrong on that.
There was a period where they still seemed to be making LRs, but not to order. They were constantly popping up in inventory though.

That did stop after a while, and shortly afterwards the reduced range LR came out.
 
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It is important to note that even if the purchase tax credit gets cut in half the lease credit could still be $7,500. The lease tax credit is exempt from most of the rules.

Jeep had their tax credit cut in half for purchases but the lease credit is still $7,500.


EDIT- Thanks to new info below editing to remove out of date info--Tesla did not pass through the credit most of the year but appears to have more recently begun doing so.



That said- the only batteries the credit thing seems relevant to are the Chinese LFPs, which I expect wouldn't be appearing in a P.
 
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Except Tesla, unlike many car makers, does not pass that credit along to the customer. They just pocket it.

(the credit goes to the owner of the vehicle, the person leasing is not the owner)


That said- the only batteries the credit thing seems relevant to are the chinese LFPs, which I expect wouldn't be appearing in a P.

Well they claim they pass it along.

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Except Tesla, unlike many car makers, does not pass that credit along to the customer. They just pocket it.

(the credit goes to the owner of the vehicle, the person leasing is not the owner)


That said- the only batteries the credit thing seems relevant to are the chinese LFPs, which I expect wouldn't be appearing in a P.
Tesla passes the full $7,500 tax credit on with leases for ALL of their vehicles to everyone.

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Well they claim they pass it along.

View attachment 994438

Yup--- this is a VERY recent change however.



Reading here looks like is it indeed something that changed maybe mid-last month?

There's slews of threads on leasehacker, reddit, and elsewhere prior to that pointing out they did not pass along the $7500 credit in leases.

Appreciate the correction and new (to me) info and edited my earlier post to reflect it
 
Hell no!
Tesla MS/MX air suspension sucks. Good way to get seasick if you drive with any level of purpose and performance.

Correct. They do suck but doesn't mean other carmakers actually have great adaptive suspension. My Rivian R1S with air suspension is a crappy as a Model X or S. BMW, Audi, Porsche do adaptive suspension correctly
There is a lease "loop-hole" on $7500 Fed credit that all EV OEMs are utilizing, including Tesla.
That is about the ONLY way anyone I know who owns a Tesla, would qualify for the Fed Credit. I'm sure there are a few exceptions to this rule, but next year's credit is likely to decline (US-made battery requirements get more stringent), making this less of an issue.

This loophole is great if you want to lease and not own the Tesla. Until Tesla allows buyouts it's not a great deal because other carmakers like Audi and BMW have BETTER leases than Tesla. $7500 plus $20-30K in discounts.
 
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Correct. They do suck but doesn't mean other carmakers actually have great adaptive suspension. My Rivian R1S with air suspension is a crappy as a Model X or S. BMW, Audi, Porsche do adaptive suspension correctly


This loophole is great if you want to lease and not own the Tesla. Until Tesla allows buyouts it's not a great deal because other carmakers like Audi and BMW have BETTER leases than Tesla. $7500 plus $20-30K in discounts.
Why would anyone want to own a severely depreciating asset? It makes no sense at all.
 
Why would anyone want to own a severely depreciating asset? It makes no sense at all.

Huh? That's the Model S. My friend owned one in June 2022 and I wanted one too but he saw how MMR/auction prices were $20K was under new prices and sold his a few months later and told me to wait for prices to drop and to nobody's surprise the S had $20-30K price cuts.


I think the Model 3 is a buy candidate IMO.
 
The flip side to this is why would someone want to pay for something in perpetuity when they could own it?
Cars deteriorate and depreciate. You may eventually pay off the loan but you have a car that has deteriorated over the years.

With the lease you continuously pay for the car but you also reset the deterioration every time you get a new car. That and the car is always under warranty too. Not to mention it often costs less to lease it than own it.
 
The flip side to this is why would someone want to pay for something in perpetuity when they could own it?

In general owning an EV is stupid. They are the worst depreciating type of vehicles - traditionally losing 50% value in 3 years. Some as high as 60% loss in 3 years. These days they lose about 30% in the first year.

But I do think modern EVs like the Model 3 RWD will last 10+ years and honestly lease rates for them are just okay.
 
Correct. They do suck but doesn't mean other carmakers actually have great adaptive suspension. My Rivian R1S with air suspension is a crappy as a Model X or S. BMW, Audi, Porsche do adaptive suspension correctly

To be clear - BMW and Porsche (and others) offer electronically variable shock compression/rebound on their high-end models. In all cases, springs and ride height are still fixed, as per performance driving requirements.

Tesla's approach has been different, with air-bags instead of springs on MS/MX.
Totally different technical approach that prioritizes ride height adaptability over performance and handling.

This loophole is great if you want to lease and not own the Tesla. Until Tesla allows buyouts it's not a great deal because other carmakers like Audi and BMW have BETTER leases than Tesla. $7500 plus $20-30K in discounts.

True, but why would you want to own a Tesla at lease end?
Its value drops like a rock, and you will always be better off ditching the leased Tesla at the preset residual value @lease-end, then buying it out at the artificially high residual price. Then just initiate a new transaction and repeat as necessary.
Leasing is not always a win for the leasee, unless you know for sure that the residual value is set artificially high (and thus your lease payments are artificially low). That is very much the case with Model 3s. For better or worse.

Tesla is also better off by counting "new sale" at the expense of inventory value write-off.

Win-win.
Well, definitely a win for the leasee, dubious accounting gimmick for the OEM.
 
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Cars deteriorate and depreciate. You may eventually pay off the loan but you have a car that has deteriorated over the years.

With the lease you continuously pay for the car but you also reset the deterioration every time you get a new car. That and the car is always under warranty too. Not to mention it often costs less to lease it than own it.

It depends. Leasehckr folks consider Toyotas - buy-only candidates. Expensive luxury cars? Lease them. Never buy. Depreciation is brutal on luxury cars (like EVs).
 
Huh? That's the Model S. My friend owned one in June 2022 and I wanted one too but he saw how MMR/auction prices were $20K was under new prices and sold his a few months later and told me to wait for prices to drop and to nobody's surprise the S had $20-30K price cuts.


I think the Model 3 is a buy candidate IMO.
That data looks wrong for the Model 3. Try to sell a Model 3 to a dealer right now. They won’t give you hardly anything for it. I got a $26k offer from Carvana for my 2022 Model 3 Performance with only 23k miles on it. That is insane depreciation.

IMG_5541.jpeg
 
To be clear - BMW and Porsche (and others) offer electronically variable shock compression/rebound on their high-end models. In all cases, springs and ride height are still fixed, as per performance driving requirements.

Tesla's approach has been different, with air-bags instead of springs on MS/MX.
Totally different technical approach that prioritizes ride height adaptability over performance and handling.



True, but why would you want to own a Tesla at lease end?
Its value drops like a rock, and you will always be better off ditching the leased Tesla at the preset residual value @lease-end, then buying it out at the artificially high residual price. Then just initiate a new transaction and repeat as necessary.
Leasing is not always a win for the leasee, unless you know for sure that the residual value is set artificially high (and thus your lease payments are artificially low). That is very much the case with Model 3s. For better or worse.

Tesla is also better off by counting "new sale" at the expense of inventory value write-off.

Win-win.
Well, definitely a win for the leasee, dubious accounting gimmick for the OEM.

Have you tried to lease today? MF rates are insane. Nearly 9% APR. A $55K 36/10K car leases around $1K/month. Back when we had zero-interest rates and the money printing machine was running full steam... you could lease cars for almost nothing.

That data looks wrong for the Model 3. Try to sell a Model 3 to a dealer right now. They won’t give you hardly anything for it. I got a $26k offer from Carvana for my 2022 Model 3 Performance with only 23k miles on it. That is insane depreciation.

View attachment 994550

Model S is worse IMO. You lose $15-20K the second you drive off the lot.
 
People have been debating lease vs buy in car forums as long as the internet has had car forums, and the basic arguments are the same now as when people first started making those comparisons.

That particular discussion (lease vs buy) also doesnt have a lot to do with the subject matter of this specific thread. Price speculation about this model does (have something to do with this thread topic) but the general "why lease / why buy a vehicle" discussion doesnt.

I realize I am being a bit picky after not checking into this thread for a while previously, but after pages (and pages) of "BMW vs Tesla" stuff that had little to do with this threads subject matter, I am checking it a bit more frequently and trying to help it stay a little on track.
 
Have you tried to lease today? MF rates are insane. Nearly 9% APR. A $55K 36/10K car leases around $1K/month. Back when we had zero-interest rates and the money printing machine was running full steam... you could lease cars for almost nothing.

Go and check Tesla lease rates for yourself.
Pay $39K for base depreciation-magnet TM3 or $329/month lease?
Pay $51K for TM3P or $529/month lease?

The answer is obvious - lease the sucker!

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Model S is worse IMO. You lose $15-20K the second you drive off the lot.

There may have been a time when Teslas were depreciating less than an average car.
Tesla nuked those by repeated drops in new car prices, to stimulate sagging sales.

It is what it is.

Should Tesla car prices stabilize, the answer may change.
Until then - no upside to catching a falling knife!

a
 
Let’s talk about weight in the next Model 3 Performance/Ludicrous. Does anyone think it will be lighter? Does anyone want it to be lighter? Would you mind if it was heavier?

The Kia EV6 GT weighs 4,795 lbs and nobody seems to talk about that. The tires alone weigh about 30 lbs each. Yet, everyone talks about what a performance car that is.

The upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5N goes from the 77.4 kWh(1,073 lbs) battery in the EV6 GT to an 84.0 kWh(~1,160 lbs) battery and everyone is still talking about what a great performance car that will be.

The current Model 3 Performance is 4,048 lbs. It is probably 1,000 lbs lighter than the Ioniq 5N. If the new Model 3 Performance came with more aggressive tires, which it is predicted to do, I can’t see how it wouldn’t handle WAY better than the Korean offerings.

Corvette owners complain when the C8 Corvette E-Ray weighs 4,000 lbs. They would lose their minds if Chevy tried to pitch a 5,000 lb car to them.

So why is almost 5,000 lbs acceptable in the EV6 and 5N? Would that weight be acceptable to you in a Model 3 Performance?

What if the next Model 3 Performance had 800 HP but it weighed 5,000 lbs? Would you still want it?

What if the next Model 3 Performance had the exact same max HP it does now but it could hold close to that maximum power from 55 mph to 130 mph and it weighed 100 lbs less? Would you still want that car?

How much of a factor is weight for you in the next Model 3 Performance?

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What if the next Model 3 Performance had the exact same max HP it does now but it could hold close to that maximum power from 55 mph to 130 mph and it weighed 100 lbs less? Would you still want that car?
This would be a sweet car IMO. The power drop off was my biggest complaint of the M3P

In any case I can't imagine the next M3P weighing 5k lbs when the MSLR is 4600 and Plaid ~4750.
 
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This would be a sweet car IMO. The power drop off was my biggest complaint of the M3P

In any case I can't imagine the next M3P weighing 5k lbs when the MSLR is 4600 and Plaid ~4750.


That's one of the main issue with the current car that we can't fixed.
Suspensions, brakes, etc... we can with aftermarket parts.

I am expecting it to be marginally heavier for the new car. That's the pattern with all manufacturers. Hopefully no more then 100 lbs?
 
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