Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation [Car announced 04.23.2024]

[GregD60]

Looking into my crystal ball, here's my speculation.

If Tesla wasn't planning on doing any significant performance improvement, I think they would have brought out the performance variant at the same time as the other Highland models. The fact that it wasn't indicates that more time was required in the M3P's development, and perhaps to line up new parts supplies. It seems likely that one of those new parts will be sport seats with substantially improved bolstering. There has been a leak about these which I think will turn out to be accurate. It will fix one of the biggest negatives when driving a Model 3 hard.

I also expect a significant acceleration bump. When the M3P came out in 2018, there was nothing else in the class that could keep up with it through the 1/4 mile. That has changed, and I think that Tesla wants and needs to have the bragging rights of the M3P being the quickest in class. This means that it will have to be in the 2.x range to 60 and the 10.x range in the 1/4 mile. If I were Tesla, I would aim for at least 2.7 to 60 and 10.8 in the 1/4 under most conditions, with a few tenths better for both numbers on a prepped track and the car optimized. I think that Tesla has technical knowhow to do this fairly easily with little to no increase in weight.

I think that there is about 60% to 70% chance that Tesla will do some significant work to optimize the springs and shocks for improved ride and handling. There are aftermarket vendors out there like Mountain Pass Performance that have proved this is possible. I'm sure that Tesla could do even better; there will just be a price penalty for the more sophisticated shocks that will be necessary.

Increased tire and wheel sizes will probably be part of the package as well to achieve the acceleration and handling goals. Maybe 235s and 275s like mpgxsvcd suggested, or maybe some other size. Being more into the track performance than the 1/4 mile aspects, I'd prefer a square setup, say 265/35R19 all around. There's a lot of good performance tires available in that size, including Michelin Sport Cup2s and Goodyear Supercar 3s, which are fairly good on the track while still being very usable on the street.

Some improvements to the brakes would also be a very, very good idea. Between the increased acceleration and improved grip through the turns, the new M3P will really need them. I don't see carbon brakes because they're just too expensive, other than maybe as an option through the Tesla store. I think they will just try to fit a little bigger rotors, improved brake pads, and better brake fluid. I don't think this will be enough to really hold up to hard usage, but hopefully it would be an overall improvement over the current brakes.

If Tesla did all of the above, and I think they should, the new M3P would easily command a $10k premium over the AWD model, and I think it would be worth it. If Tesla charges $15k more, I'm not so sure it would be worth it, but they'd probably sell quite a few initially at that price, and they could always reduce the price later.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Looking into my crystal ball, here's my speculation.

If Tesla wasn't planning on doing any significant performance improvement, I think they would have brought out the performance variant at the same time as the other Highland models. The fact that it wasn't indicates that more time was required in the M3P's development, and perhaps to line up new parts supplies. It seems likely that one of those new parts will be sport seats with substantially improved bolstering. There has been a leak about these which I think will turn out to be accurate. It will fix one of the biggest negatives when driving a Model 3 hard.

I also expect a significant acceleration bump. When the M3P came out in 2018, there was nothing else in the class that could keep up with it through the 1/4 mile. That has changed, and I think that Tesla wants and needs to have the bragging rights of the M3P being the quickest in class. This means that it will have to be in the 2.x range to 60 and the 10.x range in the 1/4 mile. If I were Tesla, I would aim for at least 2.7 to 60 and 10.8 in the 1/4 under most conditions, with a few tenths better for both numbers on a prepped track and the car optimized. I think that Tesla has technical knowhow to do this fairly easily with little to no increase in weight.

I think that there is about 60% to 70% chance that Tesla will do some significant work to optimize the springs and shocks for improved ride and handling. There are aftermarket vendors out there like Mountain Pass Performance that have proved this is possible. I'm sure that Tesla could do even better; there will just be a price penalty for the more sophisticated shocks that will be necessary.

Increased tire and wheel sizes will probably be part of the package as well to achieve the acceleration and handling goals. Maybe 235s and 275s like mpgxsvcd suggested, or maybe some other size. Being more into the track performance than the 1/4 mile aspects, I'd prefer a square setup, say 265/35R19 all around. There's a lot of good performance tires available in that size, including Michelin Sport Cup2s and Goodyear Supercar 3s, which are fairly good on the track while still being very usable on the street.

Some improvements to the brakes would also be a very, very good idea. Between the increased acceleration and improved grip through the turns, the new M3P will really need them. I don't see carbon brakes because they're just too expensive, other than maybe as an option through the Tesla store. I think they will just try to fit a little bigger rotors, improved brake pads, and better brake fluid. I don't think this will be enough to really hold up to hard usage, but hopefully it would be an overall improvement over the current brakes.

If Tesla did all of the above, and I think they should, the new M3P would easily command a $10k premium over the AWD model, and I think it would be worth it. If Tesla charges $15k more, I'm not so sure it would be worth it, but they'd probably sell quite a few initially at that price, and they could always reduce the price later.

If Tesla wasn’t going to make the Performance Model 3 significantly better then they would just not bring it out at all.

The Performance Model has to make sense from a business perspective. It can’t “complicate” things as Musk put it.

Remember, at one point Tesla stopped making the Model 3 LR completely. If memory serves me that lasted for over 6 months. They only made RWD and Performance Models at that time.

The Performance Model was so close to the LR in physical components that it wasn’t hard for them to stop making the LR and just make the Performance Model.

Back then I believe the only difference was the rear motor, the brakes, the software, the badge, and the wheels. They had already stopped advertising a suspension difference by then.

Now, the battery is completely different between the LR(78.8 kWh) and the Performance Model(82.1 kWh) in the US.

 

[terranx]

Back then I believe the only difference was the rear motor, the brakes, the software, the badge, and the wheels. They had already stopped advertising a suspension difference by then.

The suspension is still different though.

 

[blrt]

Elon has to remember that those of us that are interested in Performance/Plaid variant are not your typical base model Tesla crowd. We are the M, AMG, RS, etc.. performance minded crowd.

 

[voxel]

Elon has to remember that those of us that are interested in Performance/Plaid variant are not your typical base model Tesla crowd. We are the M, AMG, RS, etc.. performance minded crowd.

The new M3P needs adaptive suspension like Ms and AMGs now.

Folks looking at AMGs have a certain income level and often don't quality for the tax credit (cough). A new i4 M50 with the $7500 lease incentive would be a great value compared to a refreshed Model 3 Performance at $65K+

 

[clerks]

There is speculation that Tesla will announce the Highland Model 3 for the US and perhaps the next version of the Model 3 Performance at the CyberTruck delivery event this Thursday.

I am going to guess 669 HP and 2.5 0-60 mph(with rollout subtracted) for a Model 3 Performance with Ludicrous Mode. 1/4 mile in 10.5 at 128+ mph. Sub $60k starting MSRP.

Staggered 20” wheels. 235/35/20 up front. 275/30/20 in the back. New suspension but not air.

These are some pretty crazy numbers you are tossing around for a 60k car. Obviously on the performance side, it would be the best value on the market even if Tesla doesn't do anything else to differentiate the car. I think those numbers are probably higher than what can be reasonably expected and would probably canibalize both Model S and Plaid Sales. Some believe the Model S is going away anyway so maybe. While you could argue a market for the S/Plaid would still exist, it would shrink considerably from what is already a niche market. Given current technology, Tesla can't really take the S/Plaid much further so if they do go this route those models would effectively be dead.

 

[clerks]

Elon has to remember that those of us that are interested in Performance/Plaid variant are not your typical base model Tesla crowd. We are the M, AMG, RS, etc.. performance minded crowd.

I made this suggestion earlier and was roasted for suggesting that Tesla would do anything to seriously differentiate the M3P other than the obvious brakes, wheels and power. I was told the bean counters wouldn't allow it. That said, I completely agree with you.

 

[blrt]

The new M3P needs adaptive suspension like Ms and AMGs now.

Folks looking at AMGs have a certain income level and often don't quality for the tax credit (cough). A new i4 M50 with the $7500 lease incentive would be a great value compared to a refreshed Model 3 Performance at $65K+

Let me rephrase. The crowd that expect the performance level in comparison to those cars metioned.
Of course we would expect a price increase relative to its upgrades.

 

[terranx]

I made this suggestion earlier and was roasted for suggesting that Tesla would do anything to seriously differentiate the M3P other than the obvious brakes, wheels and power. I was told the bean counters wouldn't allow it. That said, I completely agree with you.

I mean both things could be true. Bean counters won’t allow anything to truly set the car apart, but the model 3 performance won’t attract that class of buyer.

Right now Tesla gets away with it because the offerings are meh. But when there’s a real M3 EV equivalent, I can’t see many picking the m3p over it.

Now perhaps Tesla can keep the bean counters happy while making a real change by grabbing stuff from the S / Plaid parts bin. Carbon wrapped motors being an easy target. And there’s always been talk about how the Model 3 / Y chassis can easily accommodate air suspension if Tesla were so inclined - though I’m not sure if the S shocks can be made to fit as is. (On another note, I just picked up my plaid and was actually surprised to find the S has Bilstein shocks with reservoirs)

 

[blrt]

I made this suggestion earlier and was roasted for suggesting that Tesla would do anything to seriously differentiate the M3P other than the obvious brakes, wheels and power. I was told the bean counters wouldn't allow it. That said, I completely agree with you.

I am the kind of guy that put performance above all else as the most attractive feature in a performance sedan. Not saying that don't Iike a luxurious interior and other features.

 

[clerks]

I am the kind of guy that put performance above all else as the most attractive feature in a performance sedan. Not saying that don't Iike a luxurious interior and other features.

That's where the current M3P sits and probably where the new one will as well. Unless Tesla is ready to kill the Model S, they will have to be careful to slot the 3P in below the S LR and Plaid. With current pricing, that's a tricky dance.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

That's where the current M3P sits and probably where the new one will as well. Unless Tesla is ready to kill the Model S, they will have to be careful to slot the 3P in below the S LR and Plaid. With current pricing, that's a tricky dance.

The Model 3 Performance already beats the Model S LR to 60 mph and the 60’ times aren’t even close.

Don’t be surprised if the Model 3 Performance just puts the Model S LR to shame in all Performance metrics through the 1/4 of a mile.

Remember when everyone thought Tesla would keep increasing prices? Then Tesla dropped the prices $10k-$20k and destroyed the resell values.

Tesla will do everything possible to sell as many vehicles as they can as fast as they can. If they think they can sell 10 Model 3 Performance cars for every Model S LR they sell they will ignore the Model S LR and do whatever it takes to sell the Model 3 Performance in high volume.

 

[afadeev]

The suspension is still different though.

Nope.
Sadly, it's the same mediocre suspension for all Model 3 AWD cars.
Initially, TM3P got lower springs, but if anything, it made the suspension worse, since you would hit bump stops sooner.

Elon has to remember that those of us that are interested in Performance/Plaid variant are not your typical base model Tesla crowd. We are the M, AMG, RS, etc.. performance minded crowd.

Very true, but we are a distinct minority.
The bulk of Tesla buyers are ex-Prius and ex-Civic jockeys. Tesla caters to them, not us!

The new M3P needs adaptive suspension like Ms and AMGs now.

Hell no!
Tesla MS/MX air suspension sucks. Good way to get seasick if you drive with any level of purpose and performance.

Folks looking at AMGs have a certain income level and often don't quality for the tax credit (cough). A new i4 M50 with the $7500 lease incentive would be a great value compared to a refreshed Model 3 Performance at $65K+

There is a lease "loop-hole" on $7500 Fed credit that all EV OEMs are utilizing, including Tesla.
That is about the ONLY way anyone I know who owns a Tesla, would qualify for the Fed Credit. I'm sure there are a few exceptions to this rule, but next year's credit is likely to decline (US-made battery requirements get more stringent), making this less of an issue.

a

 

[terranx]

Nope.
Sadly, it's the same mediocre suspension for all Model 3 AWD cars.
Initially, TM3P got lower springs, but if anything, it made the suspension worse, since you would hit bump stops sooner.

It’s literally still different part numbers. No argument that it’s mediocre, but the parts are physically different

They removed the language about the car being lower because it never was.

 

[GregD60]

Nope.
Sadly, it's the same mediocre suspension for all Model 3 AWD cars.
Initially, TM3P got lower springs, but if anything, it made the suspension worse, since you would hit bump stops sooner.

I know that my 2023 Model 3 Performance rides and handles differently from my 2018 Model 3 AWD, so I'm pretty sure that the springs and/or shocks are different. This could just be a difference in years, or maybe it's a difference between AWD and Performance models. Also, just because the Performance doesn't sit lower than the AWD, doesn't mean that the shocks and springs are the same. In any case, the reports on the Highland are that the suspension has been significantly improved. Hopefully, that will be the case with the Performance replacement as well.

Personally, I'd rather not have air suspension on a Model 3 Performance. I find that air suspensions don't give the same feel and consistency when driving a car hard as a standard coil sprung car. For a luxury car or a truck or an SUV, I think air suspensions are great, but not in a car meant to be driven aggressively.

 

[GregD60]

I don't think the Model 3 Performance and the base Model S appeal to the same buyers, and there is little to no overlap. People who want a Model 3 Performance wouldn't buy a base Model S even it were cheaper. And while there is some overlap between Model 3 Performance and Model S Plaid buyers, I know that many Model 3 Performance buyers, like myself, don't want a car as big and heavy as a Model S. We prefer a more nimble driving experience.

 

[terranx]

I dunno, I just upgraded to a Plaid, and while I was expecting the car to feel more floaty than the 3P, it just doesn't. The suspension feels much more competent. Damping is much better, stays flatter through corners. The adaptive suspension modes are all very noticeable too.

Knowing what I know now, I'd strongly consider an LR over a 3P if I didn't have the funds to just go Plaid. The LR doesn't feel quite as punchy down low, but it really picks up at higher speeds where the 3P falls flat on its face.

My ideal car would be something around the size of the 3 (or even smaller) with the tech / expense of the bigger models. But that's not really a thing these days.

 

[kilpatds]

Remember, at one point Tesla stopped making the Model 3 LR completely. If memory serves me that lasted for over 6 months. They only made RWD and Performance Models at that time.

My recollection was that they still make LRs during that time. They still made a TON of LRs. They just stopped taking new orders and focused on driving down the backlog.... If you wanted a new LR and didn't already have an order in, well ... the P exists. Give us more margin.

I personally blame this (assuming I'm remembering correctly) for the softening of the m3p: half the buyers really just wanted an LR anyway.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

My recollection was that they still make LRs during that time. They still made a TON of LRs. They just stopped taking new orders and focused on driving down the backlog.... If you wanted a new LR and didn't already have an order in, well ... the P exists. Give us more margin.

I personally blame this (assuming I'm remembering correctly) for the softening of the m3p: half the buyers really just wanted an LR anyway.

They didn’t do inventory cars back then and you couldn’t order the LR for a really long time. I don’t think they were producing LR cars at that time but I definitely could be wrong on that.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

but next year's credit is likely to decline (US-made battery requirements get more stringent), making this less of an issue.

It is important to note that even if the purchase tax credit gets cut in half the lease credit could still be $7,500. The lease tax credit is exempt from most of the rules.

Jeep had their tax credit cut in half for purchases but the lease credit is still $7,500.