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Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation [Car announced 04.23.2024]

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My good friend is a battery engineer at a tesla competitor and I have had multiple conversations with him about the upcoming Ludicrous.

His calculations are nearly identical to yours. He thinks 2.6 0-60 and 10.6 @125 1/4 mile. He also believes they will limit power to around 600hp and msrp will be $57k.
I really think everyone will be pleased when they finally announce this car’s specs. There is a lot they can do with it. The current car is no where near limits of what they can make now even for $55k.
 
1340A I beleive, but only on a colder pack with lower SOC when then BMS tries to compensate the lower voltage. If the pack was very hot and full the absolute max was around 1300A.

Close, but 840A is the official limit, according to the certification.

This is all ways too optimistic in my view. The Panasonic NCA naturally has more power than the LG NMC, because of it's low voltage drop. I don't think Tesla will increase anything on the Panasonic in order to not make this power gap any bigger than it already is. What they can do on both cars is remove the artificial torque limitation to gain 0-60/0-100 times. This, in combination with the better power at higher speeds due to the 4D2, will improve acceleration in pretty much all speed ranges. Acceleration will probably be just below 3.0s but nothing that even gets close to Plaid numbers.

Can someone ELI5 what this means? This looks like more power at low speed and the same drop off at higher speeds? How do we know that there will be an improvement at higher speed?
 
Regarding the price for the updated M3P, I think Tesla will try to optimize overall profits. Assuming that the various speculations end up being true and it has improved acceleration and handling, different seats and interior trim, and different nose and rear spoiler treatments, Tesla will initially be able to get more than $60k each for the new car, so I'd guess they'll price it somewhat less than the Ioniq 5N, say $60k, but make all the initial production a special edition, similar to what they're doing with the Cybertruck Foundation Series. Call it the "Ludicrous" edition and toss in a couple of minimal cost extras like enhanced auto pilot and floor mats, and price it at $70k. Once the initial demand dies down, start selling the regular variants at $60k.

If it's eligible for the tax credit (American made batteries), there's no way they'll price it under $55k initially, because that would just cannibalize LR sales, and they wouldn't have enough American made 2170 cells anyway to supply the demand for M3Ps. Hopefully at some point, they'll be able to get enough American made batteries, and all the Model 3s will be eligible for the tax rebate. At that point, it would make a lot of sense to lower the M3P price to $55k, assuming they can produce enought to satisfy the demand. Tesla has been pretty consistent in pricing its cars to sell for as much as possible at the quantities that they can produce.
 
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Regarding the price for the updated M3P, I think Tesla will try to optimize overall profits. Assuming that the various speculations end up being true and it has improved acceleration and handling, different seats and interior trim, and different nose and rear spoiler treatments, Tesla will initially be able to get more than $60k each for the new car, so I'd guess they'll price it somewhat less than the Ioniq 5N, say $60k, but make all the initial production a special edition, similar to what they're doing with the Cybertruck Foundation Series. Call it the "Ludicrous" edition and toss in a couple of minimal cost extras like enhanced auto pilot and floor mats, and price it at $70k. Once the initial demand dies down, start selling the regular variants at $60k.

If it's eligible for the tax credit (American made batteries), there's no way they'll price it under $55k initially, because that would just cannibalize LR sales, and they wouldn't have enough American made 2170 cells anyway to supply the demand for M3Ps. Hopefully at some point, they'll be able to get enough American made batteries, and all the Model 3s will be eligible for the tax rebate. At that point, it would make a lot of sense to lower the M3P price to $55k, assuming they can produce enought to satisfy the demand. Tesla has been pretty consistent in pricing its cars to sell for as much as possible at the quantities that they can produce.
This is along my thought for pricing minus the “founders” edition pricing which I hadn’t even considered. Comparable ICE cars are in the mid 70s like the G80 M3 etc.
 
Can someone ELI5 what this means? This looks like more power at low speed and the same drop off at higher speeds? How do we know that there will be an improvement at higher speed?
Even the Plaid drops power slightly with speed. It is never going to be an absolutely flat line for power at triple digit speeds.

The front motor drops off in power WAY more than the rear motor in the current Model 3 Performance. Without changing the front motor you are still going to have a power decline as speed increases.

However, just increasing the range of rpms that the rear motor holds peak power will help a lot with top end acceleration.

The Model 3 Ludicrous will still fall off in acceleration but if what we are predicting is true it won’t matter as much unless you are doing rolls from 100+ mph.

The 60-90 mph punch on the car I have predicted would still be extremely strong. No, regular ICE car is going to keep up with that initial instant hit. The Ludicrous will still start to drop off past 100 mph but now it will be ahead when it does drop off so they might not catch you by the end of the roll race.
 
I wasn’t the one making bold statements about zero to 60 times - you were. I was responding to you. Now after making those statements you are saying 0 to 60 doesn’t even matter? Talk about a bizarre series of posts. I’ll bet you $100 it doesn’t do it in 2.2 as you predict. If I’m wrong, I’ll happily pay up as I’m clicking the order button.
I corrected to 2.5. Thats what Ludicrous on Model S does. I think that the naming system is connected to 0-60 specs. Not to maximum power.

And both things coexist. 0-60 is BS and its doable to make M3PH do 2.5 with what we know so far.

I hope that top power drops less now and i dont care that much about 0-60.
 
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This is along my thought for pricing minus the “founders” edition pricing which I hadn’t even considered. Comparable ICE cars are in the mid 70s like the G80 M3 etc.
I think a special edition is a good idea for a vehicle where you know there is pent up demand. That way the company can maximize its profits, while not disappointing the early adopters too much when the price is lowered for almost the same thing later.

And assuming it's a "Ludicrous" edition, only those should come with a ludicrous badge from the factory.
 
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I think a special edition is a good idea for a vehicle where you know there is pent up demand. That way the company can maximize its profits, while not disappointing the early adopters too much when the price is lowered for almost the same thing later.

And assuming it's a "Ludicrous" edition, only those should come with a ludicrous badge from the factory.

It already has a ludicrous badge across all of them. I think Insane is the standard "fast" mode for the car and there will either be a Ludicrous drag mode or a ridiculous software upgrade to upsell even more hp. Of course i would sign up for that silly upgrade day 1 😁
 
The pricing will/should be elastic. It will be priced high at first. Most of us will be shocked. They know a ton of people want this thing. Eventually, it’ll drop to a more reasonable price. Why wouldn’t they do that? It just makes business sense. Also will help cover their higher initial costs around production.
 
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I just saw a Model 3 Highland Performance in semi-camo on the street in LaQuinta, CA!

The wheels and red calipers were clearly visible, as was the diffuser. Had camo on the rear quarter panels and trunk/bumper, plus some on the front bumper, but none on the doors or hood. Unfortunately, it turned right at a traffic light shortly after I spotted it, and I was in the left-most of 3 lanes, so I couldn't follow it to snap a photo. :confused:
It was about 2 blocks away from our new local Supercharger, heading away, so my guess is that it was coming from there.

Kinda cool to have spotted one out in the wild now, far from any Tesla factory...
 
Can someone ELI5 what this means?
The question is, were do you want to start? The birds and the bees / soc=>voltage / P=U*I / Cell temperature -> Electrical resistante -> Voltage under load...
This looks like more power at low speed and the same drop off at higher speeds?
The chart is only hypothetical if Tesla's claim about 30% increase in torque with Insane Mode still holds true from the Model S/X era. The chart only adds 30% to the known torque curve from the existing M3P/MYP with Panasonic/LG batteries and 3D1/3D6/4D1 motors. The chart doesn't account for...
How do we know that there will be an improvement at higher speed?
...the change to a new 4D2 rear motor. This new motor doesn't peak at around 70kph, as the previous performance motors, but at 112kph and it also has a 35kW higher peak (sufficient battery power provided). Therefore the whole power curve is extended in the speed axis. My expectation of this change is in an earlier tweet:
 
I'm not in the US but if they priced it too high wouldn't you just go and buy a used Plaid.

Nah. The Plaid is awesome, sure, but some of us want a smaller lighter car. I wouldn’t trade my current M3P for a new Plaid. AFAIK the best drivers car Tesla makes is already in my garage and it’s about to be upgraded.
I just saw a Model 3 Highland Performance in semi-camo on the street in LaQuinta, CA!

The wheels and red calipers were clearly visible, as was the diffuser. Had camo on the rear quarter panels and trunk/bumper, plus some on the front bumper, but none on the doors or hood. Unfortunately, it turned right at a traffic light shortly after I spotted it, and I was in the left-most of 3 lanes, so I couldn't follow it to snap a photo. :confused:
It was about 2 blocks away from our new local Supercharger, heading away, so my guess is that it was coming from there.

Kinda cool to have spotted one out in the wild now, far from any Tesla factory...
How did it sound? Strong? 😜
 
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The question is, were do you want to start? The birds and the bees / soc=>voltage / P=U*I / Cell temperature -> Electrical resistante -> Voltage under load...

The chart is only hypothetical if Tesla's claim about 30% increase in torque with Insane Mode still holds true from the Model S/X era. The chart only adds 30% to the known torque curve from the existing M3P/MYP with Panasonic/LG batteries and 3D1/3D6/4D1 motors. The chart doesn't account for...

...the change to a new 4D2 rear motor. This new motor doesn't peak at around 70kph, as the previous performance motors, but at 112kph and it also has a 35kW higher peak (sufficient battery power provided). Therefore the whole power curve is extended in the speed axis. My expectation of this change is in an earlier tweet:
Here is where my 1,500 amp assumption comes from. This is a paragraph about upgrading the Model S P90D to Ludicrous specs after the fact. It goes from 1,300 amps to 1,500 amps with the upgrade.

This may not apply to the Model 3 Ludicrous but this is why I made that assumption.

IMG_3728.jpeg
 
Here is where my 1,500 amp assumption comes from. This is a paragraph about upgrading the Model S P90D to Ludicrous specs after the fact. It goes from 1,300 amps to 1,500 amps with the upgrade.

This may not apply to the Model 3 Ludicrous but this is why I made that assumption.

View attachment 1032822
1500 amps would be 32.6A per cell or almost 7c which will be stressful on the pack. Maybe Tesla will allow it under ideal conditions and with a time delay between max power bursts.
 
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It will be priced high at first. Most of us will be shocked. They know a ton of people want this thing.
We're talking about 2024, where Tesla is now running advertisements on Facebook despite Musk hating Zuck and Musk hating advertising. It's not so clear that Tesla's demand in 2024 is that high.

1500 amps would be 32.6A per cell or almost 7c which will be stressful on the pack. Maybe Tesla will allow it under ideal conditions and with a time delay between max power bursts.
Plaid already runs above 7C (1000HP = 745kW, Plaid has a 100kWh pack)