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Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation [Car announced 04.23.2024]

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Not trying to detail this thread so I'll just say this. The equation separates the components of friction, but in practice, they are combined. Much like rotational and translational motion of a wheel. This isn't a situation like ignoring relativistic physics and non-relativistic velocities...I chimed in to try and help settle the argument so the discussion could get back on track... Bottom line, the effects of weight on your friction are relevant. The science backs it.
The same car takes longer to stop when it carries more load. Real world experience here. The effect gets magnified with low mu surfaces.
 
Not trying to detail this thread so I'll just say this. The equation separates the components of friction, but in practice, they are combined. Much like rotational and translational motion of a wheel. This isn't a situation like ignoring relativistic physics and non-relativistic velocities...I chimed in to try and help settle the argument so the discussion could get back on track... Bottom line, the effects of weight on your friction are relevant. The science backs it.
Not to mention real world testing shows pretty consistently that heavier cars tend to take longer to stop than lighter cars all else equal
 
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Two things:
1) The current US-spec battery, with new motors and inverters plus some aggressive launch programming, is absolutely capable of propelling an M3L to close to 2.5s 0-60mph. Arguing this point doesn’t me we necessarily believe Tesla will do it.

2) Is it possible that “not a Plaid” simply means “it won’t have two carbon-wrapped rear motors” as opposed to a broad “it won’t compete in any way with anything we have labeled “Plaid?” Pointedly, I concur that a 6-seat, tow-capable, $90k SUV is in a wildly different market than our 4+1 compact sedans. A Model 3 running a similar 0-60 to a Model X Plaid is going to poach exactly…zero Model X shoppers :p .
 
Two things:
1) The current US-spec battery, with new motors and inverters plus some aggressive launch programming, is absolutely capable of propelling an M3L to close to 2.5s 0-60mph. Arguing this point doesn’t me we necessarily believe Tesla will do it.

2) Is it possible that “not a Plaid” simply means “it won’t have two carbon-wrapped rear motors” as opposed to a broad “it won’t compete in any way with anything we have labeled “Plaid?” Pointedly, I concur that a 6-seat, tow-capable, $90k SUV is in a wildly different market than our 4+1 compact sedans. A Model 3 running a similar 0-60 to a Model X Plaid is going to poach exactly…zero Model X shoppers :p .
Would it not be worthy of a Plaid badge though if it did 2.5s? As surely Plaid doesn't really mean Carbon-wrapped motors or even two rear motors, it simply means it's stupidly fast.

I agree that the Model 3 wouldn't steal any Model X buyers away of course. I just don't think Tesla can do this in their price budget they probably set themselves for the car. I don't believe it's a "Make me the best possible accelerating car you can in the Model 3 form-factor" it's a "Make me the best Model 3 you can for a price we can sell at $60k with a good margin".

They've invested some of that budget into new suspension, new front seats, new front and rear end, new wheel designs with wider tyres, new rear motor and probably some other stuff I'm forgetting. Even if they don't cost much as parts, R&D cost has gone into it. Probably this more complicates the factory lines so that's also added cost there. They need to recoup this cost and make a nice margin and if they manage to keep the price roughly the same that's a massive win really.

I think they know they don't really need to make it much faster, they need to differentiate it from the SR and LR a bit more which is what they are doing.
 
Completely stock car with stock wheels and tyres on regular street surface and not a prepped drag strip?
Depends on what you are referring to. People have done better stock times than me(3.23 vs. < 3.2). People have also done better modified times than me(3.01 vs. 2.98). I have no way of knowing what surface they were on or what they have done to their car but they have posted better results than me now.

The point is that other people have reproduced my results if the cars are like for like.
 
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Depends on what you are referring to. People have done better stock times than me(3.23 vs. < 3.2). People have also done better modified times than me(3.01 vs. 2.98). I have no way of knowing what surface they were on or what they have done to their car but they have posted better results than me now.

The point is that other people have reproduced my results if the cars are like for like.
Right, well modified times are kind of pointless for this discussion. Tesla is going to be comparing the new car stock to the old car stock. Matt Watson will launch it stock and likely not on a proper drag strip either. It should hit roughly what the manufacturer claims once you factor he'll time it without rollout.

Think he got 3.27 seconds as fastest one here so maybe be around 3 seconds to 3.1 on Model 3 Ludicrous.

 
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Could you show me some real data that says how many Highland Model 3 LR cars have been produced this year? Don't confuse the fact that people that ordered white seats haven't got their cars yet with "Tesla has made very very few Model 3 LR in the US this year".

Troy, the guy who tracks Tesla deliveries worldwide in detail, down to the VIN level, has been reporting on this fact all throughout Q1.

From 2 months ago:


From about a week after that:

From about a month after that (just 11 days before end of quarter)

Bit further down on that thread he shows a chart of the collapse of inventory as last years models ran out and production hasn't scaled to replace them.

He estimated something like 30,000 deliveries of the delivery miss in Q1 was from failing to get Model 3 production working right in Fremont.


White interior is certainly WORSE (folks are now seeing delivery dates being pushed out as late as August... but even with orders back to start of January are still waiting on cars to be delivered or only now getting VINs (even with black interior)-- I'm seeing folks with order dates from early march (again black interiors) seeing delivery dates being pushed out to May already.
 
Would it not be worthy of a Plaid badge though if it did 2.5s? As surely Plaid doesn't really mean Carbon-wrapped motors or even two rear motors, it simply means it's stupidly fast.

I agree that the Model 3 wouldn't steal any Model X buyers away of course. I just don't think Tesla can do this in their price budget they probably set themselves for the car. I don't believe it's a "Make me the best possible accelerating car you can in the Model 3 form-factor" it's a "Make me the best Model 3 you can for a price we can sell at $60k with a good margin".

They've invested some of that budget into new suspension, new front seats, new front and rear end, new wheel designs with wider tyres, new rear motor and probably some other stuff I'm forgetting. Even if they don't cost much as parts, R&D cost has gone into it. Probably this more complicates the factory lines so that's also added cost there. They need to recoup this cost and make a nice margin and if they manage to keep the price roughly the same that's a massive win really.

I think they know they don't really need to make it much faster, they need to differentiate it from the SR and LR a bit more which is what they are doing.
A lot of People don't realize how easy it would be to get down to a 2.5-2.6 0-60 mph with rollout subtracted. Give me a brand new 2023 Model 3 Performance, $4k worth of wheels and tires, and a 100 lb driver and I will show you at least 2.6 0-60 mph with rollout subtracted with the current Model 3 Performance. I have mine down to 2.83 with a 200 lb driver and less than ideal wheels and I can't do anything to increase torque or affect the launch. Tesla can affect all of those things to some degree.

Someone else has a 2.78 0-60 MPH run with a 2019 Model 3 Performance. It would be trivial to shave .19 seconds off that time especially if I could affect torque off the line and up to peak HP.
 
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Right, well modified times are kind of pointless for this discussion. Tesla is going to be comparing the new car stock to the old car stock. Matt Watson will launch it stock and likely not on a proper drag strip either. It should hit roughly what the manufacturer claims once you factor he'll time it without rollout.

Think he got 3.27 seconds as fastest one here so maybe be around 3 seconds to 3.1 on Model 3 Ludicrous.

The point is that all I can do is subtract weight and I am already almost there(2.83). Just imagine if I could affect the torque curve instead of just removing weight.

Carwow does a true 0-60 mph without subtracting rollout. That 3.27 time would be ~3.07 if Tesla was reporting it.
 
Would it not be worthy of a Plaid badge though if it did 2.5s? As surely Plaid doesn't really mean Carbon-wrapped motors or even two rear motors, it simply means it's stupidly fast.
There was a time Dodge sold an SRT-10 Ram pickup truck where the highlight was the “Viper’s V10!” It was barely faster than the Dodge Neon SRT-4, but they catered to very different markets!

Even now, a BMW X5M, M7, and M3 are all “M” cars, but only have a modest overlap in shoppers.

I think there is still very much space to continue marketing the Model X Plaid as “the fastest 6-seat SUV” or as having “the same powertrain as the record-holding Model S Plaid!1!1” without shooting themselves in the foot if their top-end Model 3 happens to get close in a few magazine numbers.
 
Troy, the guy who tracks Tesla deliveries worldwide in detail, down to the VIN level, has been reporting on this fact all throughout Q1.

From 2 months ago:


From about a week after that:

From about a month after that (just 11 days before end of quarter)

Bit further down on that thread he shows a chart of the collapse of inventory as last years models ran out and production hasn't scaled to replace them.

He estimated something like 30,000 deliveries of the delivery miss in Q1 was from failing to get Model 3 production working right in Fremont.


White interior is certainly WORSE (folks are now seeing delivery dates being pushed out as late as August... but even with orders back to start of January are still waiting on cars to be delivered or only now getting VINs (even with black interior)-- I'm seeing folks with order dates from early march (again black interiors) seeing delivery dates being pushed out to May already.
Of course deliveries slowed down in January and February. They were ramping up production of the entirely new model. Let's see some evidence that they are still struggling to produce cars now. Yes, they have a huge backlog of Model 3 LR orders but there are now a considerable number of Model 3 RWD cars sitting in inventory all across the country.

I think the biggest issue is that they underestimated the Model 3 LR demand and built too many Model 3 RWD cars at first. Too many people wanted white interior LR cars and that certainly wasn't what they had concentrated on making at first. Model Y has a demand problem right now. They have too many of those on the lots and are reducing the prices drastically to move those.
 
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I think there's a decent chunk who are okay with the current 0-60 and would upgrade for the other improvements (highland general improvements, seats, suspension, high-speed acceleration). This car will almost certainly have a much quicker quarter mile regardless of what the 0-60 is. Even currently daily driving a Plaid, the 0-60 in the model 3 performance always felt reasonably quick for 0-60 pulls. It's the top end that sucks.
*ding ding ding*

The Highland M3 is better in just about every way. I hate the suspension on my late 21 M3 LR w/ AB for starters. It’s super harsh. My wife hates that too and also hates that she can’t turn the passenger AC vent off.

“All this tech and you can’t turn the vent off but you can turn it on?”

The seats are ok, the new ones are allegedly way better. I could keep going but it’s a moot point.

No one should be upgrading a 22 or 23 M3P anyways, unless you just like throwing money down the drain with bad financial sense.
 
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A lot of People don't realize how easy it would be to get down to a 2.5-2.6 0-60 mph with rollout subtracted. Give me a brand new 2023 Model 3 Performance, $4k worth of wheels and tires, and a 100 lb driver and I will show you at least 2.6 0-60 mph with rollout subtracted with the current Model 3 Performance. I have mine down to 2.83 with a 200 lb driver and less than ideal wheels and I can't do anything to increase torque or affect the launch. Tesla can affect all of those things to some degree.

Someone else has a 2.78 0-60 MPH run with a 2019 Model 3 Performance. It would be trivial to shave .19 seconds off that time especially if I could affect torque off the line and up to peak HP.
Right but Tesla aren't going to put $4k of wheels and tyres on the car. I'm guessing those tyres are maybe heading more towards slicks also so illegal here for road use not to mention dangerous when it rains a lot. They'll put good tyres on that are also road legal globally, produced in enough quantity, be easy for people to source to get replacements and so on.

You know this is why some people complain that Apple is always slow with new features but they have to wait until a supplier can produce those components in enough volume before they could ever put them in their phones. Some weird Android phone that ships like 0.001% of Apple's shipments for that model can experiment a bit more. Tesla also has to play this a bit safe, they do build and sell a lot of cars.
 
Of course deliveries slowed down in January and February. They were ramping up production of the entirely new model

China appeared to have no such complete-fumble issues when they did their Highland refresh.

And not like this is the first time Fremont totally screwed up a refresh-- S/X were hilariously badly handled and DEEPLY behind schedule for most of the first year of the refresh.


Let's see some evidence that they are still struggling to produce cars now. Yes, they have a huge backlog of Model 3 LR orders but there are now a considerable number of Model 3 RWD cars sitting in inventory all across the country.

I think the biggest issue is that they underestimated the Model 3 LR demand and built too many Model 3 RWD cars at first. Too many people wanted white interior LR cars and that certainly wasn't what they had concentrated on making at first. Model Y has a demand problem right now. They have too many of those on the lots and are reducing the prices drastically to move those.


@Troy in case he wishes to comment since he's the one with up-to-the-week data on this
 
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There was a time Dodge sold an SRT-10 Ram pickup truck where the highlight was the “Viper’s V10!” It was barely faster than the Dodge Neon SRT-4, but they catered to very different markets!

Even now, a BMW X5M, M7, and M3 are all “M” cars, but only have a modest overlap in shoppers.

I think there is still very much space to continue marketing the Model X Plaid as “the fastest 6-seat SUV” or as having “the same powertrain as the record-holding Model S Plaid!1!1” without shooting themselves in the foot if their top-end Model 3 happens to get close in a few magazine numbers.
I don't disagree with this and I imagine if they could make it faster for the right price they'd do that. I just don't think they can do it in the price budget they want and so it'll be faster without hugely impacting the cost of the car.

It's like the BMW M5 vs M3, the M5 is faster in a straight line but the M3 will handle better in corners and potentially get a faster lap time also depending on how many corners to long straights the track has. This is really no different, the Model S Plaid is the straight line monster but the Model 3 Ludicrous might be better or well nicer to drive on twisty roads and a circuit. It doesn't have to be faster for this, it already does this well in the M3P.
 
BMW M3 Competition xDrive


How's that competition? It's slower than the existing P, and cost a ton more?

bmw.png
 
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