Really appreciate the answer, thank you
. I think you might be the first person I have seen here who has pointed it out though, very unique for a Tesla fan.
Deferring 200K until 3Q. No need to send an invite that will not be delivered for 12 weeks.
Very interesting work here. It seems to me that hitting 200K total US deliveries is all but a lock at this point. Even in a very dire scenario - only 4,000 M3 in June, they would still cross over. I also agree that there must be some big production slowdown on purpose. They invited a lot of people in anticipation of much better May/June production and when it didn’t happen they stopped invitations. Since then VINs and deliveries are quite slow. Since we still aren’t seeing any invitations, I am betting that production remains bogged down.I created these tables recently so people can understand the federal tax credits situation better. As you might know, if Tesla reaches 200,000 USA sales this month, $7,500 will continue until the end of Q3 2018. If they reach it after this month, then it will continue until the end of Q4 2018. After that, it drops to $3,750 for two quarters and then to $1,875 for two more. There is no limit on the number of people who can claim the federal tax credits. It's unlimited. Hitting 200,000 USA sales only triggers the phaseout calendar. That's all. It has no other function. If you want to read the rules, click here and expand the Phaseout section.
Of course, the question is, will Tesla reach 200,000 USA sales in Q2 or Q3 2018. The first table shows two calculations. Method 1 is based on the low estimates by insideEVs. Method 2 is based on my calculation. In either case, it appears Tesla will reach 200,000 this quarter.
The second table shows scheduled Model 3 deliveries people have reported in the invites spreadsheet. There are very few deliveries in July. The live version of table 1 and 2 can be found here. The 3rd table shows scheduled Model X deliveries. The S/X spreadsheet is here. It doesn't look like Tesla is trying to postpone the 200K limit. Therefore the most likely scenario is that $7,500 will continue for deliveries until 30 Sep 2018.
You might say, how about Canada deliveries? If Tesla wasn't trying to postpone the 200K, why would they start deliveries to Canada so early? Because the $14,000 Ontario EV rebate is about to be scrapped. There is a recent news article about it here. This is not a surprise. I wrote about this a few months ago here.
In addition, I don't think the slow production is intentional. There are lots of people who configured more than 60 days ago and still haven't received VINs. That wasn't the plan.
Thanks Troy, your data gathering and logic is very sound and appreciated.I created these tables recently so people can understand the federal tax credits situation better. As you might know, if Tesla reaches 200,000 USA sales this month, $7,500 will continue until the end of Q3 2018. If they reach it after this month, then it will continue until the end of Q4 2018. After that, it drops to $3,750 for two quarters and then to $1,875 for two more. There is no limit on the number of people who can claim the federal tax credits. It's unlimited. Hitting 200,000 USA sales only triggers the phaseout calendar. That's all. It has no other function. If you want to read the rules, click here and expand the Phaseout section.
Of course, the question is, will Tesla reach 200,000 USA sales in Q2 or Q3 2018. The first table shows two calculations. Method 1 is based on the low estimates by insideEVs. Method 2 is based on my calculation. In either case, it appears Tesla will reach 200,000 this quarter.
The second table shows scheduled Model 3 deliveries people have reported in the invites spreadsheet. There are very few deliveries in July. The live version of table 1 and 2 can be found here. The 3rd table shows scheduled Model X deliveries. The S/X spreadsheet is here. It doesn't look like Tesla is trying to postpone the 200K limit. Therefore the most likely scenario is that $7,500 will continue for deliveries until 30 Sep 2018.
You might say, how about Canada deliveries? If Tesla wasn't trying to postpone the 200K, why would they start deliveries to Canada so early? Because the $14,000 Ontario EV rebate is about to be scrapped. There is a recent news article about it here. This is not a surprise. I wrote about this a few months ago here.
In addition, I don't think the slow production is intentional. There are lots of people who configured more than 60 days ago and still haven't received VINs. That wasn't the plan.
You're too new to know. I (and others) have done enough of the critique of Musk's language and his expectation management, but eventually, I, and most other reasonable bulls get tired of relentless optimism of cheerleaders and we stop arguing it. I have over 30 bull cheerleaders Ignored, because I don't feel they contribute meaningfully to discussion.Really appreciate the answer, thank you
and I am very familiar with the Tesla wordsmithing
THanks again
I think they could achieve the target weekly rate in the last 7 days. That's not very important. Generally speaking, Q2 is a success when you look at the quarterly production numbers. Tesla released these numbers after Q1: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries. Looking at the statements there, I think the next release might include the following talking points:
Here is a chart that shows what I would expect to see in Q2. It's looking good. Q3 will be much better. Temporary production issues are not important.
- Q2 production total was 48,000+ units, a 40% increase compared to Q1.
- Model 3 production increased by 150%.
- Model 3 is the #1 best selling mid-sized premium sedan in the US.
- In the last days of Q2, Tesla achieved 5,000/week Model 3 production rate.
