@Sneakerbuddy, at the end of the Delivery tab, you can see the transit times. It takes 19 days on average. It's still early days.
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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet
- Thread starter RubberToe
- Start date
By changing to the performance my estimated delivery time frame would move up 2 months 2-4 months vs 3-5.Am I missing a spot to mention if your preference is AWD or not? That might be an interesting search variable to add. That and the performance model.
But! What do I know. I just showed up again a few days ago after a long break from here
Azlope
Member
On Cloud 9 today. Configured/ordered on June 27. Can pick up July 12.
VIN 41xxx
Blue
18” aero wheels
EAP
RWD
VIN 41xxx
Blue
18” aero wheels
EAP
RWD
Regenshire
Member
I configured on the 27th and I just got my Delivery Appointment scheduled for July 17th.
VIN 39xxx
White
18" aero wheels
RWD
No EAP
VIN 39xxx
White
18" aero wheels
RWD
No EAP
Troy,
Impressive work on the VIN analysis.
Just curious how today’s AWD VIN batch influences your predictions? With 8k AWD VIN’s on the books & zero VINs assigned to customers, would you predict that production is switching to 100% AWD in the near future? This would support a push for profitability for Q3.
Also, do you still predict approximately ~18% of AWD configurations are the P-version.
Again, kudos for your work!
-Zach
@No Vne,
They have about 6,600 AWD and P orders right now. Production can't switch to 100% AWD. The VINs they acquired suggest 50/50 but I would expect somewhere between 30-50%. However, they have opened the Model 3 Design Studio to the public a few days ago. If they start making the AWD, they would get more AWD orders. Tesla's approach to the AWD version is frustrating because Tesla acts like not that many people want the AWD while in reality, that's only because Tesla doesn't make it. Even in the US, more than half of the orders would have been AWD had they started AWD production together with RWD. People are worried about the federal tax credits and generally, they don't want to wait an unknown amount of time. I will look into AWD production closer once buyers start reporting AWD VINs.
For P vs non-P split, you can look at the numbers on the VIN tab. It shows 77 P and 374 non-P in the US and 25 non-P in Canada. Therefore 77/(77+374+25)= 16.2% of AWD orders are for the P version.
@Trevor B,
There were three things buyers wanted to know:
1. Invite date
2. VIN date
3. Delivery date
Invites are now eliminated but people still want to know when to expect the VIN and the delivery. I recommend the VIN Queue 2 tab here for VIN waiters. Average VIN to delivery times for each state can be found at the end of the Delivery tab.
They have about 6,600 AWD and P orders right now. Production can't switch to 100% AWD. The VINs they acquired suggest 50/50 but I would expect somewhere between 30-50%. However, they have opened the Model 3 Design Studio to the public a few days ago. If they start making the AWD, they would get more AWD orders. Tesla's approach to the AWD version is frustrating because Tesla acts like not that many people want the AWD while in reality, that's only because Tesla doesn't make it. Even in the US, more than half of the orders would have been AWD had they started AWD production together with RWD. People are worried about the federal tax credits and generally, they don't want to wait an unknown amount of time. I will look into AWD production closer once buyers start reporting AWD VINs.
For P vs non-P split, you can look at the numbers on the VIN tab. It shows 77 P and 374 non-P in the US and 25 non-P in Canada. Therefore 77/(77+374+25)= 16.2% of AWD orders are for the P version.
@Trevor B,
There were three things buyers wanted to know:
1. Invite date
2. VIN date
3. Delivery date
Invites are now eliminated but people still want to know when to expect the VIN and the delivery. I recommend the VIN Queue 2 tab here for VIN waiters. Average VIN to delivery times for each state can be found at the end of the Delivery tab.
Sorry if this has been covered, I am new here. So you believe that there are only 66pp AWD orders in the US? I just reserved/configured/ordered within the last couple months. Ordered same 6/27-28 timeframe a lot of people did. Just curious about that AWD number and what the speculation on what percentage of tota orders are with North America and how many are SR. Thanks in advance! Your spreadsheet is incredible!
@calvan, in the long term, maybe 9 to 12 months from now, I think more than half of Model 3's sold in the US will be AWD. That's what surveys showed before Model 3 production started. Currently, I'm calculating 6,700 AWD orders. A week ago, it was 5,400.
As for the percentage of buyers from North America, Tesla never released any data about that. However, looking at Model S/X data, my guess is 53% will be from North America.
Interest in the standard range was 36% based on past surveys.
As for the percentage of buyers from North America, Tesla never released any data about that. However, looking at Model S/X data, my guess is 53% will be from North America.
Interest in the standard range was 36% based on past surveys.
Tesla confirms that the $7,500 Federal Tax Credits will be available for deliveries until 31st Dec 2018. Check out this page for more details: Electric Vehicle Incentives
It turns out I was wrong when I predicted they had crossed 200K in Q2. I thought the odds were 75% Q2 and 25% Q3. The 25% option came through. Congratulations to those who held out hope when this scenario looked unlikely. Many people believed that Tesla wouldn't cross 200K in Q2 even when Tesla was making 3,000 Model 3s per week before 15th May 2018. After that date, production stopped for a week and then slowed down to only 1,000/week, making it possible to avoid the 200K. Well done Tesla!
Btw, today Tesla acquired 2,226 more VINs from NHTSA (VINs from 69,602 to 71,827). All are AWD. This is a good sign for AWD waiters.
It turns out I was wrong when I predicted they had crossed 200K in Q2. I thought the odds were 75% Q2 and 25% Q3. The 25% option came through. Congratulations to those who held out hope when this scenario looked unlikely. Many people believed that Tesla wouldn't cross 200K in Q2 even when Tesla was making 3,000 Model 3s per week before 15th May 2018. After that date, production stopped for a week and then slowed down to only 1,000/week, making it possible to avoid the 200K. Well done Tesla!
Btw, today Tesla acquired 2,226 more VINs from NHTSA (VINs from 69,602 to 71,827). All are AWD. This is a good sign for AWD waiters.
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I'm getting a little nervous. I configured AWD sport wheels on 6/28. Got a Sept.-Nov delivery timeframe. After a week or so I decided to change to Aero wheels. Tesla apparently treated my modification as a "new order" and put me at the back of the line. Now I show an Oct.-Dec delivery. If that slips to after the first of the year I am hosed on my incentive.
Thanks for the detailed info. Your research is unparalleled. You know so much I feel like you are Elon just trolling us all here on the forums under a fake name lol. I’m feeling pretty good about getting my 6/27 AWD order before end of year with your info and the big dual motor VIN batches recently.
Notice also that it says 310 range, but lists the 19" Sport Wheels and 20" Performance wheels...
Yeah, but it's not obvious that those upgrades would change the stats from looking at that chart. It should have new stats next to the upgrades, IMO.
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