RTPEV
Active Member
You might want to clarify and state it's when it COMPLETELY disappears (i.e. when even toggling trade-in doesn't bring it back), if that's what you want to track.
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Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet
- Thread starter RubberToe
- Start date
You might want to clarify and state it's when it COMPLETELY disappears (i.e. when even toggling trade-in doesn't bring it back), if that's what you want to track.
The tracking sheet seems to have limited data lately. Is it being skipped-over by the TMC Community in the Model 3 area? The more the data, the better the data.
Tesla Model 3 Invites
Tesla Model 3 Invites
diamond.g
Active Member
There are like three locations one can put information in. I think that folks just don't want to keep duplicating data.
That's not the tracking sheet. That's the other project known as the Model 3 Invites website. You can find the tracker sheet here:
Model 3 Order Tracker. See the 'How to use' tab about entering and editing your data.
In the last 7 days from 13 to 19 July, 277 people have entered or updated their data. That's 40/day or ~1200/month on average which is pretty good. Column R on the 'All Entries' tab shows the last update date. You can sort the table by this column to see how many people have updated their data in the last x days. Here is a video that explains how to use filter views.
In the last 3 weeks, I deleted more than 500 incomplete entries to improve the quality. That's why the count stays at just above 5K.
If people are waiting for a VIN, I recommend the 'VIN Queue 2' tab. AWD and P VINs are just starting to come in. Also, the 'VINs' tab gives a general overview of what's going on.
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I am a little surprised that we are seeing so little reported VINs for July, @Troy. For example in April and May you had well over 700, while in July it's barely over 200. What do you think could be the reason? Is there fatigue setting in? The Model 3 isn't as new anymore and therefore people aren't as excited to fill in the spreadsheet anymore? Do we have any way to filter out that kind of effect and have some semblence of comparing both months?
@schonelucht, VINs might be affected by many things. I recommend looking at the table on the Production tab that shows monthly numbers. That's a lot more accurate than what the reported VIN numbers suggest. The table shows that production has increased every month without exception. Production in May was higher than April, June was higher than May and July is expected to be higher than June. Same with deliveries.
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systemBuilder
Member
systemBuilder
Member
At my company (Google) uptake for the Perf version (among people holding reservations) is 5.7%. Our spreadsheet is 3.5% as large as the online sheet, so no trivial sample. I think the spreadsheet is pretty accurate because I TWICE in the past 2 months prompted ~20 people to update the spreadsheet.
I think that if you can order a car TODAY, you won't bother with finding this website, finding the order spreadsheet, and all that jazz. Entering stuff in a spreadsheet is only for people who have waited 6 months or more and are getting frustrated. So the big unknown is, "What is the breakdown of orders for people who are NOW ordering because there is no longer a waiting list for long-range cars?" My newphew took out 2 reservations, was going to sell one but decided to just get a refund, and has decided not to use his 2nd reservation until they change something (which seemed rather trivial) about the car, I'm not exactly sure what ...
I think that if you can order a car TODAY, you won't bother with finding this website, finding the order spreadsheet, and all that jazz. Entering stuff in a spreadsheet is only for people who have waited 6 months or more and are getting frustrated. So the big unknown is, "What is the breakdown of orders for people who are NOW ordering because there is no longer a waiting list for long-range cars?" My newphew took out 2 reservations, was going to sell one but decided to just get a refund, and has decided not to use his 2nd reservation until they change something (which seemed rather trivial) about the car, I'm not exactly sure what ...
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Thanks. How are the production numbers estimated and why are they more accurate than VIN assignment as a proxy of production? Looking at the reported montly deliveries, I see that you currently have 451 of them with at least 61 of them still to come. That means 390 deliveries so far in the first 22 days of the month. That gets me to 550 deliveries, well below May and not really that many more than June when there was a delivery stop to avoid hitting 200k.
IMO less and less people are going to fill out the spreading sheet. It's not important anymore now anyone can just place an order.
I look at the VIN chart here and use a visual method. Tesla is trying to obscure the actual Model 3 production number by assigning VINs somewhat randomly instead of sequentially like they do with the S and X. However, this is not actually completely random. For example, if you look at the height of the blue dotted area above the green line and compare that to the height below the green line, it looks like x vs 2x.
I'm looking at the number values of the VINs reported instead of how many VINs are reported because the sample rate can change a lot. Somebody who has been waiting since 31st March 2016 is more likely to know about this spreadsheet than somebody else who decided to order recently.
My best guess for July deliveries right now is between 6,500 - 7,500 units. By the way, even though more people reported deliveries in May than June, I think June was higher. This table on the Delivery tab shows the monthly numbers I'm calculating. April and May were calculated from THIS chart Tesla released during the shareholder meeting. Tesla also released the Q2 numbers. Therefore, I simply applied June = Q2 - (Apr+May) to calculate 6,944 units for June.
MCJ_IP
Member
I look at the VIN chart here and use a visual method. Tesla is trying to obscure the actual Model 3 production number by assigning VINs somewhat randomly instead of sequentially like they do with the S and X. However, this is not actually completely random. For example, if you look at the height of the blue dotted area above the green line and compare that to the height below the green line, it looks like x vs 2x.
I'm looking at the number values of the VINs reported instead of how many VINs are reported because the sample rate can change a lot. Somebody who has been waiting since 31st March 2016 is more likely to know about this spreadsheet than somebody else who decided to order recently.
My best guess for July deliveries right now is between 6,500 - 7,500 units. By the way, even though more people reported deliveries in May than June, I think June was higher. This table on the Delivery tab shows the monthly numbers I'm calculating. April and May were calculated from THIS chart Tesla released during the shareholder meeting. Tesla also released the Q2 numbers. Therefore, I simply applied June = Q2 - (Apr+May) to calculate 6,944 units for June.
That is really disheartening. If Tesla can't deliver more than 2,000 cars/week after allegedly hoarding cars in June to avoid triggering the tax rebate, things are dire indeed. Where are all the cars that are allegedly being produced at 3,500 - 4,000 per week?
I agree - Troy’s estimate is quite a disaster in the making. Add this up:
+ 11,000 M3 in inventory (“transit”) as of 6/30.
+ Making ~3,500 per week in July = 15,000
- 7,000 units delivered in July
= 18,000 units in inventory as of 7/31. Cost = $1 Billion.
Something is seriously the matter either with the spreadsheet or Tesla’s demand/delivery situation.
We know where the cars are, there are lots full of them. It’s probsbly a combination of their heavily reported contract system issues and not being ready to handle that many shipments (not excusing them, they shoulda been more ready, just stating the facts). But as always it’ll be a blip on the radar over time as they work through the kinks.
Thanks for the explanation @Troy. As usual, very hard to argue with the methodical nature of your work. Still, as @Sneakerbuddy says, it's very hard to understand why inventory would grow this month. With 11k cars in transit by the end of last quarter, I'd have expected to see more mentions of mass deliveries like we had in Norway for the S/X and in Canada for the 3.
Understand completely your numbers vs spreadsheets but if tesla had 11,000 in transit at end of quarter surely it is beyond belief that these will not have all been delivered in the month plus some of first 2 weeks of July.
I.e. Possibly 15,00 or so with 75 stores it is only 200 per store
Thanks for all you do but have problems reconciling numbers.
Do you follow skabooshka who publishes daily production figures which appear to be direct from factory?
I.e. Possibly 15,00 or so with 75 stores it is only 200 per store
Thanks for all you do but have problems reconciling numbers.
Do you follow skabooshka who publishes daily production figures which appear to be direct from factory?
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The logistics are not that easy to handle apparently. There are quite a few videos available from storage lots with hunderds if not thousands of Tesla cars from the last weeks. It may simply take longer than we'd imagine?
ord3r
Member
I got my VIN yesterday, and my friend got hers last week 43xxx for both. Neither of us are in the tracker, nor is anyone I know using the tracker.
I was 7/1/17 reserve, she was day 2 (4/1/16) reserve.
I was 7/1/17 reserve, she was day 2 (4/1/16) reserve.
the_danimal
Member
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